SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, March 11, 2010--While most reasonable people without provincial interest are rooting that Monmouth Park has created a template by which racing will not only survive but even thrive in the future, the smart money is betting against.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, highly placed industry sources are telling HRI there is no way Monmouth Park can reasonably expect to double its handle, something it would need to do to remain viable, given a purse structure that will distribute an average $1-million daily.

The facet that seems clear given the new approach, accenting both quantity and quality, is that Monmouth should have little problem improving its live gate, drawing fans and bettors from the densely populated metropolitan area while New York’s horses are in Saratoga.

This makes sense in that the few tracks that are thriving in this country specialize. Saratoga and Del Mar are destination tracks, summer places to be for racing fans and bettors from America’s two largest markets.

While less of a destination track per se, Keeneland works because it owns the highest octane race meet in North America, racing for only three weeks each spring and fall.

And Oaklawn Park, meanwhile, with the exception of its impressive Racing Festival of the South concept, thrives not only because it’s become a racino but because it draws patrons from five states: Location, location, location.

More than any other sporting group, horseplayers are creatures of habit. Summer betting eyes are focused on Saratoga and Del Mar, and always have been in the modern era. Arlington Park’s summer signal is very popular because of its extensive turf program. Monmouth has its moments, but its weekday fare is, on balance, pedestrian.

In that context, purse money will help big-time. New York outfits such as Todd Pletcher’s, Kiaran McLaughlin’s, Bruce Levine’s, Linda Rice’s, and Rick and Tony Dutrow’s will have strong divisions at the Shore, as they do most years. Given the added money, however, they will probably ramp up their participation in 2010.

But the big New York outfits might not find the pickings as easy this time. The large purses are sure to attract an influx of competitive horses from Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Money, as racetrackers often say, makes the mare go.

The impact that this infusion of equine and human talent will have on New Jersey horsemen could be devastating. They will have to choose from a limited amount of opportunities more carefully, perhaps even point towards the 22 days after Labor Day than the 58 days that precede it.

While Monmouth Park vice president and general manager Bob Kulina and newly elected New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association president John Forbes presented a united front at an NTRA-sponsored conference call Tuesday, there was infighting before the plan was brought to fruition.

Forbes was one of three trainers, Tim Hills** and Jim Ryerson being the other two HBPA board members, who was not on board with the plan because all felt it wasn’t in the best interests of New Jersey horsemen.

The one person who was on board, however, was newly elected Governor Chris Christie. Christie inherited not only the waning fortunes of the thoroughbred and breeding game but a tanking casino industry in Atlantic City as well.

Tourism considerations notwithstanding, casinos no longer wanted to subsidize racing in return for not establishing slots operations at the state’s tracks. Ultimately, the Christie administration backed the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority’s play to hold all thoroughbred racing at Monmouth Park and reserve The Meadowlands for harness racing only.

The administration pressured the horseman to either fall in line or face a shutdown of thoroughbred racing. The measure came to a vote and the resolution was passed by a 7-2 margin.

If Monmouth Park is unable to sustain itself, expect the state to get out of the thoroughbred business. No tears will be shed in Atlantic City if that’s the case.

The only question remaining is did the Governor of New Jersey do racing a favor, or did he give New Jersey’s thoroughbred industry just enough rope to hang itself? Stay tuned.

**Clarification made on Mar. 11, 2010, 5:03 pm: According to a source from a New Jersey-based horsemen's group, trainer Tim Hills was not an original dissenter. That person was later identified as Fred Maffeo.