Horseplayers are the ones that have been most disappointing. Fans love to complain about whats wrong with the game. God knows theres much to complain about.
Medication issues, legal and otherwise, lagging technology, poor customer service, and overall product quality, are problems truly worthy of discussion. But then so is the cost of the product.
In the last decade, nationwide handle on horse racing grew from $10 billion to $15 billion annually. But in this millennium, its been flat. Why?
What does business do when sales are slow? It lowers the price, hoping to renew interest by making the product more affordable.
Racing is unique in the sporting world because its enjoyment is derived via fan participation. It is the greatest vehicle for gambling ever invented for the thinking man. So, what does the thinking handicapper do?
Absolutely nothing, if the response to a recent column on this site is any measure.
HRI is a new alternative in this data-driven game. Weve been happy to get five, six, or even more responses to some of the pieces that have appeared on this site.
But last weeks, on the four percent takeout on the Ellis Park Pick Four, got one response. One!
Could it be that no one understands the economics of wagering?
Im no math genius, far from it. But a wager that puts the odds in our favor over the long term, one where track executives and horsemen and legislators from the Commonwealth of Kentucky came together and took a risk for our gain and, ultimately, theirs?
This is a very big deal, and nobody seems to care.
Reaction, any reaction, yeah or nay, was anticipated. It would have been a welcome start to meaningful dialogue between racings considerable uncounted majority and the industry (simulcastors and OTBs dont take attendance). Instead, reaction was next to nothing.
Am I to believe that New Yorkers, for instance, are more interested in who gets the NYRA franchise than the current law that prevents OTBs from taking wagers on the Ellis Park Pick Four?
As if by just showing up the new operators of New York racing are going to put money back into horseplayers pockets?
And where is the racing media on this? Wheres the commentary? Again, yeah or nay, I dont care. But say something. Anything.
10 Jul 2007 at 06:27 pm | #
john,
i live in the capital region and wager with capital otb i complained to them as they are not taking the ellis pk.-4 some thing about ellis charging them 5%+the take out being 4%i talk to joe lynch on the nysrwb and he told me they could take it if they wanted to.i was wondering what you+cary could do being that you guy’s are guest handicappers on thier shows to get them to take the wager.nycotb is taking the wager!
10 Jul 2007 at 06:31 pm | #
John,
I’m a transplanted Long Islander. Used to
enjoy reading you in Newsday and always liked your appearances on Harvey Pack’s show. Thanks for the article on Ellis Park. I’ll certainly be wagering on their
Pick 4 thru my PA phonebet acct. I’ve always felt that with lower takeouts eventually everyone would benefit, including the states. By the way, learned about HRI thru your appearance on Jody Mac’s show. May the horse be with you!
10 Jul 2007 at 08:10 pm | #
Gentlemen,
Thanks for your interest in HRI and for being fiscally responsible horseplayers.
Ed, I will get a message to Capital OTB to read your comments on our site and implore them to take the bet. Hopefully, my plea will not fall on deaf ears. This cannot be a big loser for any bet taker and it should increase handle on the other races in the sequence.
Jim, It’s great that your voting with your dollars to support an idea whose time has come. More people like you will help send a message so that the industry understands that players will not be taken for granted and will bet in pools that give them the best chance to win in the long term. Congratulations and the very best of luck.
John
10 Jul 2007 at 08:30 pm | #
I let all my friends in Edmonton know about the 4% and our W4 money will start going there this Saturday.
11 Jul 2007 at 02:50 pm | #
Way to go John and the boys! That’s why we love our friends north of the border. Check back here on Saturday, where Mr. Fotias just might have a few “valuable” ideas for your sequences.
11 Jul 2007 at 05:29 pm | #
Hi John, Save the biggest of days I concentrate my play on the NYRA tracks but you’ll be happy to know that today I make what may be my first bet ever on Ellis Park. And until Saratoga opens, and perhaps beyond, the Ellis Pick-Four will be my focus. Lower takeout, reform of the IRS rules, and large, quality fields are my primary concerns as a horse player. Where I can encourage and support those addressing these priorities I will. In this case that meant re-funding a dormant Ameri-Tab account and giving my Capital OTB one a rest.
11 Jul 2007 at 06:02 pm | #
John,
I am a big bettor and for years have been screaming at everyone in the media & track management to decrease the takeout for reasons that I could go all day discussing. I send monthly emails to Steven Crist, pleading that he write more articles on the takeout issue (he does write plenty). The reason why I did not reply to your column was because I have given up. I no longer wager large sums of money any longer (except for Saratoga) because it just isn’t worth it. There is no one in this world who enjoys this game more than myself and I would like to support it wholeheartedly. However, it gets a bit frustrating to scream in an empty room.
11 Jul 2007 at 07:51 pm | #
I am glad that Ellis Park is making the move.
However, your position that the fans only had one response to this matter could be part of what you wrote.
“Independence Day was opening day at Ellis Park, a second-tier track with a first-tier attitude when it comes to catering to its base; the two-dollar bettor.”
A second tier track may not have the following that the regular horseplayers want to wager on. Especially a track that for the most part goes heads up with Del Mar and Saratoga. I know the concept of value and 4% takeout in a thinking mans game is a tremendous advantage to the thinking player, the problem is there is only so much money, and so much time to handicap and wager. It takes time to learn angles, trainer trends, etc. Learning it for a second tier track, for any track, takes time.
Sometimes I wish there are more than 24 hours a day.
11 Jul 2007 at 09:39 pm | #
Lower on track take-outs should have been key in the NY franchise bids as demand for wagering, like most things in a market-based economy, is elastic(you could look it up in your Samuelson 101 Economics textbook!) and would result in:(1) More wagering as more $$$ will be returned to the bettors; and (2) Will increase on track attendance which is a must if NY racing is to survive and thrive once again. What’s so hard about that?
12 Jul 2007 at 04:33 am | #
This is truely unbelievable… A 4% takeout! Wow! Just found out about this site and the 4% takeout (can’t get over it) through a link from equidaily.com It would be great if more tracks followed Ellis Park’s lead, but I won’t hold my breath…
12 Jul 2007 at 06:33 am | #
John, I pasted your article for about 20 of my best racing buddies to read. And I have verbally passed the word on too. Today the Pick 4 handle at Ellis Park jumped almost $16,000 from Sunday! And I’ll bet it was mostly because of you being posted on equidaily.com!
But don’t worry. I bookmarked HRI now that I’ve found it.
Thanks for the headsup! Four percent!! I never thought I’d live to see the day!
Oh yea, before I forgot, the powers that be running the NJ Wagering Account program have it at a $1 minimum - not fifty cents. Considering that there was only one winner on Sunday and it was a 50 cent ticket that took down the entire pool, the $1 minimum bet not only stinks - it’s downright unfair!
12 Jul 2007 at 12:16 pm | #
John:
You may or may not remember my friend Howard and I from one of your Saratoga seminars, the one where I gave you the formula for converting Timeform numbers to Tgraph numbers.
I’m not sure if you saw my article about Ron in HP. When I was writing it, I suggested a lot of changes to accomplish Ron’s goal of making Ellis the players track, but near the end of our last session Ron asked which of the suggestions was the most important and would have the most impact. When I told him dramatically reducing the takeout one race every day or one day per week, which I thought might avoid the kind of OTB boycott Keeneland encountered when they tried to implement an across-the-board takeout reduction, was when I learned that my friend Cary had made a similar recommendation. However, we were both hoping for something in the vicinity of 10%. Ron came up with 4% after consulting with the same U of L economist he used when he put together the deal to bring UPS to Louisville, and he might be someone you want to talk to if you’re planning a follow-up on what I agree is a very important story.
The way I see it, the most amazing part of the story is the mostly unreported tale of how Ron was able to go through the considerable regulatory and other hoops necessary to implement the change, and was able to convince the OTBs and the major rebate shops to go along with his plan.
Our one area of disagreement is the amount of buzz the bet is creating. Based on what I’ve seen and heard, I think it’s already considerable, and will only continue to grow as more horseplayers realize the possible impact on the industry if the bet is as big a success as I think it will be. As you suggest, however, the proof is in the pudding, and nothing that’s said or written is going to make any difference if players don’t put their money where their mouths have been for the last 20 or so years.
Take care,
Mel
13 Jul 2007 at 01:15 pm | #
Well, John, YOU GOT MY ATTENTION!!!!
Glad I found your website, (through EQUIDAILY) I am delighted to know about the Pick 4 at Ellis and I will be getting in very soon.
Again, great website, I will be back on a regular basis, and I will pass the word.
13 Jul 2007 at 02:31 pm | #
I’ve written about this as well. And I think you are right on. Gamblers should just get together and boycott large takeouts. There are other alternatives which make the game fairer, such as rebate shops and Betfair. Until the masses get together, the track owners will continue with their 1935 takeout mentalities.
17 Jul 2007 at 12:42 pm | #
FYI John and Mel -
It wasn’t the U of L economist who came up
with 4%, it was me. Other tracks (Sam Houston,
Laurel-Pimlico for example) had experimented with
Pick 3’s in the 12% area. I wanted to do something revolutionary - thus the Take-4 as I originally
called it.
Thanks for all you support and keep spead’n
the news..
CARY..