Thursday, May 15, 2008

This Time, It’ll Be an Inside Job

Five of the last six odds-on favorites in the Preakness have accounted for bags and bags of paper debris at old Pimlico. Their names are Linkage, Swale, Easy Goer, Fusaichi Pegasus and the unfortunate Barbaro. It's likely that some of the tickets on Barbaro wound up in memory books instead of the scrap heap.

Odds-on choices don't always lose at Pimlico--Smarty Jones was 7-10 when he won--and Big Brown isn't expected to join Linkage and the others when they run the Preakness, the middle jewel in the Triple Crown, for the 133rd time time on Saturday. The easy-does-it Kentucky Derby winner is running off two weeks' rest for the first time in his brief career, but there is nothing in the stars over Baltimore that presages a meltdown. "If he gets a clean trip, I don't know of anyone who can run with him," said Michael Iavarone, one of the colt's owners.

Why 12 horses have entered against the undefeated Big Brown is one of the mysteries of our time. Reade Baker, the trainer of Kentucky Bear, talks a good game, but the reality is that if Pimlico doesn't turn into Rout City, a grand jury may be impaneled. Five of the horses in the field have beaten only maidens (their combined record: five wins in 29 starts). Only three of Big Brown's rivals have won graded stakes. Gayego, the Arkansas Derby winner, came into the race at the 11th hour, but he's hardly window dressing after a 17th-place finish in the Derby.

In fact, two respected linemakers, Pimlico's Frank Carulli and the Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker, can't agree on whom the second choice will be. Carulli has Gayego at 8-1. Gayego is listed third on Watchmaker's line, his number 12-1 after Behindatthebar, 10-1. Carulli listed Big Brown at 1-2, while Watchmaker's number is 3-5.

A second choice hasn't been 11-1 or more in the Preakness since Dark Star, the Derby winner, and Royal Bay Gem both went off at that number in 1953. Native Dancer won at 1-5.

After breaking from the far outside in both his Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby wins, Big Brown drew the middle, No. 7, in the Preakness. In a refreshing departure from the made-for-TV falderal in Kentucky, Pimlico assigned post positions with an old-fashioned blind draw.

"If nobody wants to go with him," Iavarone said, "he can bounce out of there and take the race on his own on the lead. It gives (jockey Kent Desormeaux) a lot of options."

Gayego, on the other hand, drew next to the outside for the second Triple Crown race. He was 19th of 20 at Churchill, and he's 12th of 13 at Pimlico.

"What can you do?" said his trainer, Paulo Lobo. "It's better than 19."

Kentucky Bear, who is 15-1 on the Pimlico line, is typical of the underachievers running. This is only his fourth race, after a maiden win, a throw-out in the Fountain of Youth and a late-running third in the Blue Grass. Kentucky Bear bled in the Fountain of Youth, grabbed a quarter and failed to change leads in the stretch. He's yet to change leads in any of his races. Alydar didn't change leads, either, but there's the suspicion that Kentucky Bear isn't the next Alydar.

Kentucky Bear's trainer, Reade Baker, gritted his teeth and said: "Big Brown beat all the horses at Churchill Downs, but he didn't beat us."

Kentucky Bear is one of six Preakness starters coming into the race off a start over synthetic footing. The best synthetic-to-dirt finisher in the Derby was Colonel John, who was a well-beaten sixth. As though Big Brown needs an extra reason to demolish this field.

Friday, May 09, 2008

Britches That Jingle Jangle Jingle

Two days before the Kentucky Derby, as I packed the car in the driveway for the 300-mile trip to Las Vegas, a UPS truck pulled up in front of the house. The driver handed me a package that contained Charlie Leerhsen's new book on Dan Patch.

"You're going to be in the Kentucky Derby, aren't you?" I said to her.

"What?" she said.

"The Kentucky Derby," I said. "Saturday. Big Brown."

"Huh?" she said.


"Big Brown. The horse. He's the big favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he's named after UPS. Big Brown."

"Oh," she said. She got back in the truck and turned on the engine. "I hope he wins," she said as she drove away. "We need the business."

Big Brown was named after UPS by Paul Pompa Jr., owner of a trucking company and the original sole owner of the colt before he sold a majority interest for an estimated $3 million. A few days after Kent Desormeaux rode Big Brown to his convincing Derby win, with the UPS logo on the side of his white riding pants, I talked to Mike Mangeot, a spokesman for United Parcel Service. Someone who seemed to know estimated that UPS had derived $1.4 million in "advertising value" from its connection to Big Brown. Much of it came from the Desormeaux connection. The three-time Derby-winning jockey also was seen hugging Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, with a UPS baseball cap on his head.

"It was a very good deal for us," Mangeot said. He probably didn't want to sound too excited because UPS was still dickering with Desormeaux about what he'd be paid to wear the same pants in the Preakness. Kelly Wietsma, whose work behind the scenes for riders in recent years is one of the great unsung stories in racing, said Friday that Desormeaux has signed a deal with UPS that will take him through the Preakness and the Belmont. Asked how much the jockey was being paid, Wietsma said that she was "sworn to secrecy" not to divulge the amount, but it's believed that Desormeaux's deal is in the six-figure range.

All 20 jockeys in the Derby wore advertising on their britches. The riders other than Desormeaux represented NetJets, the corporate airline company, but the money has been designated for several charities. With a few owners matching the fees the jockeys would have received, that fund totals more than $500,000, according to Wietsma.

There's a history behind all this. State racing authorities in Kentucky, who resisted jockeys selling their pants, so to speak, were forced to relent in 2004 when several riders took them to court. Nevertheless, three jockeys--Desormeaux, Jeremy Rose and Corey Nakatani--were fined $5,000 apiece and suspended for seven days by Churchill Downs stewards when they wore advertising in the 2005 Derby. Something about not clearing the content of the advertising in time, or wearing ads that might be competitive with Churchill Downs and Derby sponsors. Desormeaux's ad was for a mortgage broker. Rose represented an Internet poker company, and Nakatani, riding Wilko, sported an ad for a company owned by J. Paul Reddam, who also raced Wilko. Rose contributed his $25,000 advertising fee to two charities. All three, Wietsma said, have not paid the fine or served the suspension. They're appealing the stewards' rulings. Nakatani is 37 and appears to have many good years ahead of him. But is it possible he'll be retired before final judgment arrives?

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Another Mountain To Climb

A rule of thumb in handicapping the Kentucky Derby is to never let post positions influence your selections. The truth is, Derby winners come from anywhere (in 1982, Gato Del Sol started just this side of Central Avenue), and while the best horse doesn't always win, seldom does a beaten horse's post come up in Sunday morning rehashes. As the man once said, there are 999 other ways to blow a horse race.

Having said this, it now comes to pass that if the undefeated Big Brown is to win Saturday's Derby, he will not have to do it from Central Avenue, but from Indiana. Gato Del Sol won from the 18 hole; Big Brown will break from No. 20 in the 20-horse field. If Big Brown turns right leaving the gate, his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, will have a generous helping of Kentucky burgoo in one hand, and a half-finished mint julep in the other.

The immediate post-draw rumor was that Rick Dutrow, Big Brown's cocksure trainer, will lower his win bet on his horse, from $200,000 to $180,000. Dutrow sometimes bets that kind of money on his horses (see Saint Liam, Breeders' Cup Classic, 2005). "We took the 20 to assure him of a clean trip," Dutrow said. "By the time it got to us, we only had so many choices. He should pop right out of there, and be able to gain position."

Under the two-tier draw system, Dutrow was fifth-last in the selection order, and the spots left were 1 and 2 and 18 through 20. In Big Brown's only stakes race, the Florida Derby, he drew outside in a 12-horse field, exploded from the gate and wrested command by the time the field hit the first turn. Twelve isn't 20, but you get the idea.

Much will be made, between now and post time, about Big Brown trying to become the first Derby winner from the 20th post since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, but this is a phony stat. First of all, there have been only a dozen runnings with 20 or more horses since then, and many of the horses breaking from the far outside were no-hopers like Flashy Bull, who ran 14th in 2006. Flashy Bull had only a win against maidens in nine starts prior to the Derby. The best spot in the gate, wherever that is, wouldn't have helped.

You have to go all the way back to 1974, the 100th anniversary Derby, for a running in which the post mattered. Judger had won the Blue Grass and the Florida Derby, and his trainer, Woody Stephens, could smell the roses. But Judger, who liked to run from just off the pace, drew the 22nd post in a 23-horse field and was squeezed by horses on both sides at the break. He was ahead of only two horses after six furlongs and finished eighth. Stephens cried all the way to the bank. His Cannonade, Judger's lightly regarded stablemate--but a colt who owned Churchill--won the race.

None of the putative drawbacks to Big Brown prevented Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs linemaker, from installing Dutrow's colt as the 3-1 favorite. By now, most of you know the litany: Three career starts, only two starts this year, no prep race since March, suspect feet, and bloodlines that don't necessarily cry out a mile and a quarter. The only concession Battaglia made after the draw was to lower Colonel John, the second choice, from 5-1 to 4-1 because of his No. 10 post, and to jack up Gayego, the Arkansas Derby winner, from 10-1 or 12-1 to 15-1 because of his No. 19 draw. I liked Colonel John before the draw, and I still like him.

In a race that was begging for a third choice, Battaglia pegged Pyro for that dubious honor, at 6-1. Pyro was 10th in his last start, the Blue Grass, and by rights ought to be double digits, but Battaglia, who had to make third choice out of someone, was forced to side with Pyro's resolute trainer, Steve Asmussen, who is not likely to be making a Polytrack endorsement anytime soon. "He accomplished a lot on dirt prior to the Blue Grass," Asmussen said. "The Blue Grass was disappointing, but now that he's back on dirt, we're hoping that he's ready to run the race of his life."

After Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro, Battaglia, in effect, treated the other 17 entrants as though they were field horses. He lumped together five of them, including the filly Eight Belles, at 15-1, and had a 20-1 grouping reserved for eight others. Only four horses are 30-1 and up. One of the 30-1s, Adriano, will likely drift down because he has been characterized as the so-called wise-guy horse. There are so many horses like Adriano in this field that there aren't enough wise guys to go around.