Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Sayonara

The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these 'value laden' criteria:

a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season finale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent's win percentage is .444 < this season

By combining all the factors above our ‘see ya later’ sad sacks are a nifty 36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ‘Sayonara’ teams on this season’s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.

By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifies this week.

While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season, this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making statement to that effect.








Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets for Week 11

Denver Plus over Atlanta

The surprise team in the NFC this season? That’s easy. It’s the Falcons. To say they have caught the league by surprise would be an understatement. Behind a rookie quarterback (Matt Ryan) and a
first-year head coach (Mike Smith), Atlanta is 6-3 this season, currently one game behind division leading Carolina. Today they face their first step-up’ game and we feel they aren’t quite ready. The Dirty Birds are 1-1 against winning opposition this season but were underdogs in both games. Today they change clothes and adorn the cloth of a favorite against the first-place Broncos. It’s not hard to dismiss the fact Atlanta is 0-10 ATS at home in games off back-to-back victories. Or its 1-10 ATS log off a double-digit ATS win as a .500 or greater team when facing a .500 or greater opponent. With Denver 5-1 SU in this series–favored all six times – look for the Birds to get their wings clipped.



Houston Plus over Indianapolis

The Colts are back! The Colts are back! Spread the word, the Colts are back! Don’t believe us… check the numbers. They’ve won back-to-back games against two playoff teams, no less. They rallied to beat the Texans in their first meeting, scoring 21 points in the final 4:15 of the game (thanks to three Sage Rosenfels brain farts). It all looks good on the surface – until you look inside the stats. That’s because Indy was out-yarded in each of the aforementioned victories. On the flip side, Houston has won the stats in each of its last 7 games and is 12-2 ATS as a division dog off back-to-back losses in its young history, including 5-0 on the road. Couple this with the fact that teams after tackling Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers are just 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS in their
next game and suddenly our next call is to halt the presses. The Colts are NOT back!

Jacksonville Plus over Tennessee

Another same-season division revenger leads to a dramatic role change inside this rematch. When these same two squads squared off in the 2008 season opener in Tennessee the Jaguars were installed as 3-point favorites. Nine-straight wins later and the roles have changed as the Titans have become an NFL knockoff artist, looking more and more like a Louis Vuitton purse at a redneck fashion convention. The question, though, is are they for real? Indications are they are not. Consider: after their first 6 games of the season, the Titans were +31 net YPG. Over the last three games they are -0.6 net YPG. On the reverse side, the Jags were -78 net YPG thru their first six games but are +50 net YPG over their last three contests. With two teams on opposite sides of the stat-track and the pointspread roles fully reversed, we’ll point to Jack Del Rio’s 17-6 ATS career mark as a dog with revenge (7-0 ATS last seven) and call for the end of the streak here today. Titans exposed.


Last Week: 0-1 Season: 13-8


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Friday, November 14, 2008

Marc Lawrence College Football Upsets for November 15

Texas A&M Plus over Baylor

Speaking of teams that are a few quarts low on the Quaker State, here comes Baylor. At 2-7, the Bears have been whipped In The Stats in their previous four games and may just go through the motions today as they wrap up the latest in a seemingly endless line of losing seasons. Texas A&M has struggled mightily under first-year head coach Mike Sherman (given up over 40 PPG in half of their 10 outings) but are technically still alive for a bowl. Of course, they’ll need wins here and next week at Texas but don’t dismiss the possibility – A&M has conquered the mighty Longhorns for two years
running. An 8-point dog against the Bears, the Aggies are a mind-boggling 21-1-1 SU in the series. They’ve been favored in all but one game – which they won 34-12 as +3.5 dogs – and have been installed as the chalk in 16 straight tussles. Mix in Baylor’s anemic 6-14-1 ATS mark in Last Home Games and we’ve got a recipe that calls for bear meat as the main ingredient. Chef Sherman cooks up a winner for his Aggies today.



Kansas Plus over Texas

These two haven’t tied it on since 2005 when Mack Brown’s Longhorns trampled Kansas, 66-14, and we’re here to tell you the Jayhawks have gotten a whole lot better since that undressing. KU certainly brings the superior ATS artillery to today’s battle. Kansas has covered five straight Last Home Games and stands 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 or more points. Compare that to Bevo’s miserable 1-5 ATS mark in Last Road Games and the ‘Horns’ awful 2-5 ATS failure as Big 12 road favorites of 7 or more points. Our powerful database chips in with this little beauty: 500 or greater conference home dogs of more than 2 points who won 10 or more games last season are 15-4 ATS in Last Home Games versus an opponent off a win. Even worse for the visiting Texans, coach Brown is just 4-13-1 ATS as conference road chalk off a win versus .600 or greater opposition. Face it, with the Longhorns having bitten the poison cheese – and no longer undefeated, their focus has waned. We’ll take a hungry dog with two TDs or more against a distracted favorite all day long.


Auburn Plus over Georgia

Bad spot for the Dawgs here, playing their 4th consecutive game away from Athens with a defense that’s been showing some serious wear and tear of late. Be honest… are you comfortable laying more than a TD with a team that’s been slashed for 38, 49 and 38 points in its last three games? Didn’t think so. Georgia’s also a feeble 2-9 ATS versus an SEC foe playing with revenge and a money-burning 2-7 ATS as conference road chalk of 8 or more points. Picked in the preseason to knock LSU of its SEC West perch, the Tigers have instead fallen prey to the Season From Hell, needing a win over pitiful Tennessee-Martin last week to square their season record at 5-5. Still, Tubs and his Tigers can actually become bowl eligible with a win here today or next week at Alabama (how sweet would it be to beat Bama for the SEVENTH straight time and turn the Tide’s undefeated year into an impression of the Hindenburg?). We like Aubbie’s chances better this week: the Tigers are 5-1 off a double-digit
SU unlined win and Tuberville is a solid 9-3 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points off a win versus .800 or greater foes (5-0 L5). Auburn’s offense finally answers the bell… and down goes UGA.


Houston Plus over Tulsa

Matchup of the nation’s No. 1 (Tulsa 593 YPG) and No. 4 (Houston 547 PYG) offenses finds the Golden Hurricane stalled out in the worst Possible Bubble Burst role. After that, it’s all downhill for the visitors. Tulsa has compiled a weak 14-28-2 ATS record in conference games off SUATS loss if they allowed 28 or more points (0-3 with Todd Graham) while the Cougars are a perfect 8-0 ATS as home dogs off a SU win. Last year’s 56-7 loss to Tulsa was Houston’s worst conference defeat since 1993 and with only one stat loss this season, we think the Cougars can claw their way to a victory here. Kevin Sumlin has done a terrific job with the Houston program and will have them headed to its 4th straight bowl game by season’s end. One further note: the home team is a Puttin’ on the stats smart box play, too. You know what to do.


South Carolina Plus over Florida

He’s baaaack. Yes, former Gator great Steve Spurrier is back at the Swamp his weekend and he’s bringing along something you rarely ever see: the nation’s 3rd-ranked defensive team as a 20-point underdog! One thing’s forsure… Spurrier certainly contributed to Florida’s 15-1 SU series dominance before surfacing with the Gamecocks in 2005 and he’ll return to Gainesville with a sharp 6-1 ATS record as a double-digit SEC underdog. Florida’s recent blowout wins over LSU, Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt have made the Gators the current darlings of the BCS but the truth is they’re averaging 43 PPG on 408 YPG of offense – the yards don’t equate to the points. And when we note that coach Spurrier is the answer to this week’s trivia teaser, the decision is final. The Ol’ Ball Coach is just too slippery and dangerous to give this many points. Cocks raid the Gators’ nest and make off with the eggs.


Colorado Plus over Oklahoma State

With the coach’s son having to come off the bench to rally the Buffaloes to a 28-24 win over lowly Iowa State, very few will give Colorado at chance at hanging close to high-powered Oklahoma State. But after noticing the 17-point favorite Cowboys have been the dog in this series in 12 of the last 13 games, count us among the few left standing in the Buffs’ corner. Okie State has been outstatted in four of its previous six games and the Pokes are coming off an incredibly demoralizing 56-20 humiliation at Texas Tech–plus they’ve got a season-ender waiting on deck against mighty Oklahoma. Today’s contest marks Colorado’s Last Home Game, a scenario where the Buffs have gone 19-8 SU and ATS, and Buffie has also rung the register 11 times in 13 tries in Game Eleven of the season. We think the last place the Cowboys want to be right now is in chilly Boulder so we’re not looking for the typical big-margin blowout by OSU. Ralphie snaps a 7-game ATS losing streak with a supreme effort here.


Boston College Plus over Florida State

The saying ‘paybacks are a bitch’ fits this game like a Libertarian candidate feeding his ego – they’re both in it for self-serving reasons. Let’s set the scene for this contest, a matchup of two Top 10 ranked defenses. Last year the Eagles were sitting pretty, 8-0 and ranked No. 2 in the polls when along came the blood-thirsty, money-sucking Seminoles. Out of nowhere FSU pulled the rug out from under Boston College, stunning the Eagles 27-17 as 7-point road dogs to ruin their hopes and dreams of a perfect season. Today the Seminoles find themselves tied atop the ACC Atlantic Division with BC a game-and-a-half behind. Now, with Bobby’s Boys off last week’s satisfying come from behind revenge win over Clemson and standing just 1-6 ATS as a host against conference foes seeking revenge, suddenly the shoe is on the other foot.

Last Week: 1-5 Season: 22-18


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping