Thursday, February 04, 2010

Who Dat Say Who Dat?

A funny thing happened on the way to the Super Bowl this year – a pair of No.1 seeds actually made it for the first time in 16 years. Not that it was easy; the Colts found themselves trailing 17-6 against the underdog Jets with 5:00 minutes remaining in the first half before all-world QB Peyton Manning ignited a slumbering offense and Indy’s defense shut down the vaunted New York rush attack to fuel a 24-0 run, sending Indianapolis back to the Big Game for the second time in four years. New Orleans had an even tougher row to hoe. With the score tied at 28-all and less than two minutes remaining in the game, Saints fans watched helplessly as QB Brett Favre drove the Vikings downfield into position for a game-winning field goal. But on a crucial third down play, Favre’s gunslinger mentality betrayed him. He passed up an easy 10-yard run to instead rifle a bullet to WR Sidney Rice. The toss was intercepted and Minnesota never saw the ball again. Minutes later in overtime, QB Drew Brees marched the Saints into Viking territory and a 40-yard field goal split the uprights, unleashing a blizzard of gold and white confetti from the Superdome ceiling. So it’s only fitting that the two teams who flirted with perfection this season – the Saints started 13-0; the Colts 14-0 – meet in Miami to decide the championship.The logical place to begin examining this matchup is to look at the engines that drive both highly-productive scoring machines: quarterbacks Manning and Brees. For two signal callers that operate mostly in weatherproof facilities, they both fare quite well playing outdoors. Current NFL MVP Manning has gone 41-22 SU outdoors, including 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS versus .700 or greater opposition. Those numbers improve to an eye-catching 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when the Colts are a pick or favored. Though Brees has compiled a mediocre 27-24 SU mark away from the Superdome, he does own a 30-17-4 ATS record away outdoors, including 12-2 ATS off back-to-back wins. But when it comes to squaring off against tough competition, the New Orleans QB has rung the ATS register with greater frequency. Brees is 19-5 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents (5-0 SU and ATS this season) while Manning has struggled to a 9-17 ATS mark versus comparable foes, including 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS if his adversary is off an ATS loss. Yes, we’re aware that Peyton is 16-0 SU this season in contests where he’s played the entire game. However, seven of those wins came by just 4 or less points.



The Colts own a flawless 5-0 SU and ATS series edge of late over New Orleans but the teams have met only once in the previous six seasons. More revealing is the fact that each team faced five common opponents this season. The Saints went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning the stats by an average +78 YPG while Indy went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, losing the stats by an average -12 YPG… thus advantage New Orleans. The boys from the Big Easy look even more impressive when we note their domination of the AFC over the past two seasons: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS. Those numbers include a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009 with every win coming by double-digits. When matched up against fellow playoff teams from this season, both teams posted identical 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS records. Though technically a ‘rookie’ head coach, Indy’s Jim Caldwell is finishing his eighth year with the franchise and served as assistant head coach to Tony Dungy since the 2005 season. Fourth-year Saints head coach Sean Payton has excelled in today’s role, going 10-4 SU and ATS versus a team off back-to-back wins (5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the Saints are also off consecutive wins). New Orleans has been an underdog only once this season and that was in its final game of the year against Carolina, basically a ‘lay down’ affair where Payton rested many key players. Like last year when the Cardinals reached the game with Roman Numerals for the first time ever, so, too, do the Saints. Unfortunately for the Black-and-Gold, the last three teams to make their Super Bowl debut are 0-3 SU (the last squad to win a Super Bowl in its debut was Tampa Bay in SB XXXVII). Our database also informs us that the last six teams to enter the Super Bowl off a spread loss are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS and the last No.1 NFC seed to win a Super Bowl was the ’99 Rams. However, Indianapolis will have to buck some strong trends if they expect to grab the green as favorites. Super Bowl chalk of 7 or less points has gone 6-11-1 ATS, including 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back home games. In fact, the last 14 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 10-4 SU but just 4-8-2 ATS. And if the Colts are held to their season average of 26 points, it could be lights out for Indy: the last fifteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-13-1 ATS! It’s a must that both clubs put at least 21 points on the board, too, because teams who fall below that category are a money-burning 1- 24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS.
Of course, we can’t end the discussion without offering up one of our Playbook

INCREDIBLE STATS: Since 1995 there have been seven Super Bowl games when one team rushed the ball for 4.0 or more YPR (Saints) versus an opponent that allowed 4.0 or more YPR (Colts). The favorite in these games is 0-4-1 ATS; the underdog is 2-0 ATS, winning both games in straight-up fashion – as double-digit dogs, no less! Our database adds further support by pointing out that NFC teams are 18-11 SU and 17- 10-2 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS versus .800 > opponents. While other questions abound (who does Archie Manning root for – his beloved Saints or his son?), we must point out that the two finalists are equally vulnerable on defense. There’s a saying we follow close to the vest in this business: “When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking.” We’re thinking everyone sees Peyton Manning scurrying off to Disneyland. Maybe he does, but laying points with a team that owns as many defensive holes as the Colts is a recipe for disaster. In what may be the ultimate irony surrounding this game, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall in the United States, it first hit Miami before moving on to devastate the Big Easy. New Orleans may be called the ‘Crescent City’ but the Saints come full circle here today. Who Dat!



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Fact or Fiction … NBA 2nd Half Season Betting Systems

With the College Bowl games now in the rear view mirror and a new Super Bowl champion about to be crowned, our focus shifts to the NBA where teams are now engaged in the 2nd half the season.

With that, let’s check your handicapping prowess as we take a look at a handful of handicapping theories that apply to teams playing from Game 42 out during the regular season in the NBA. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1990, prior to the start of the current 2009-10 season…

1. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE-DIGIT WINS DOMINATE TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES.
Fiction. The fact of the matter is these teams are just 52-59-1 ATS, including 23-32-1 ATS at home.

At home against .367 or greater opponents they dip to 6-14-1 ATS. Worse, at home with a win percentage of less than .677 they are 1-12-1 ATS when facing a .367 or greater foe.



2. FACT OR FICTION: DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGS OFF SU WIN AS A DOUBLE DIGIT-DOG ARE JUST GETTING STARTED.
Fact. That’s confirmed by the fact that these teams are 32-18 ATS, including 15-6 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS wins.

Better yet, put these guys up against an opponent off a SU and ATS win of six or more points and they zoom to 10-1 ATS.

3. FACT OR FICTION: DOGS OFF A SU LOSS AS DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES BOUNCE BACK BIG THE NEXT GAME VERSUS AN OPPONENT OFF A SU AND ATS LOSS.
Fiction. Quite the opposite, considering the fact that they are 9-17 ATS, including 6-15 ATS away.

Home or away, they are virtual no-shows if the opponent lost Su as a favorite in its last game, going 1-11 ATS.

4. FACT OR FICTION: ROAD WHO ARE 0-3 SU AND ATS THEIR LAST 3 GAMES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHEN FACING AN OPPONENT THAT IS 3-0 SU AND ATS IN ITS LAST THREE GAMES.
Fiction. The truth of the matter is while struggling these teams bring ‘value’ to the contest as they are 64-51-3 ATS, including 20-10-1 ATS when taking more than 10 points.

Better yet, when taking more than 10 points in same conference games they are an eye-opening 12-1-1 ATS.

5. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF THREE STRAIGHT-UP WINS IN A ROW AS AN UNDERDOG CONTINUE THEIR WINNING WAYS.
Fact. Momentum goes a long way in the NBA. Teams off three consecutive upset wins in a row are 38-28-1 ATS.

Put them up against division foes and they really turn things up, going 17-5 ATS, including 15-2 ATS versus sub .550 opposition.

There you have it. Five Super Systems to follow the 2nd half of this season. Happy hunting.



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

We Are the Champions

It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Miami for Super Bowl XLIV. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on who those two teams will be. Our database does, too.

There are generally two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

If we were interviewing handicappers we would have varying opinions on why any of the four teams will and advance. Ranging from players to fundamentals to situations, the answers would be all over the board.

But since our database has a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers. Here are some of a half-dozen questions we posed to the database and the answers we found surround NFL Championship games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise…



Q – How have home teams fared in this game?
A – NFC hosts are 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS, while AFC home teams are 18-11 SU and 15-14 ATS.

Q –Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?
A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 38-19 SU and 32-25 ATS, including 29-17 SU and ATS when laying less than 10 points.

Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?
A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 37-16 SU and 31-22 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of les than 10 points these better record teams are 28-14 ATS.

Q – How do road teams playing off a road game fare?
A – Not all that well, as you might imagine. These guys are just 9-20 SU and 12-17 ATS and 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back road games.

Q – How have teams that lost their final game of the regular season done in title games if they were playing with a week of rest after the loss?
A – Teams that were defeated in the their regular season finale are just 13-13 SU and 10-16 ATS in these games if they had a week off to prepare for their Division playoff game.

Q –How has the Over/Under fared in these games?
A – Surprisingly, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder have gone ‘Over’ in title games since 1990. Games with a total of more than 46 points have gone ‘Over’ the number in 14 of 18 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 20-8-2 to the ‘Over’ as well.

There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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