Thursday, February 04, 2010
Who Dat Say Who Dat?
A funny thing happened on the way to the Super Bowl this year – a pair of No.1 seeds actually made it for the first time in 16 years. Not that it was easy; the Colts found themselves trailing 17-6 against the underdog Jets with 5:00 minutes remaining in the first half before all-world QB Peyton Manning ignited a slumbering offense and Indy’s defense shut down the vaunted New York rush attack to fuel a 24-0 run, sending Indianapolis back to the Big Game for the second time in four years. New Orleans had an even tougher row to hoe. With the score tied at 28-all and less than two minutes remaining in the game, Saints fans watched helplessly as QB Brett Favre drove the Vikings downfield into position for a game-winning field goal. But on a crucial third down play, Favre’s gunslinger mentality betrayed him. He passed up an easy 10-yard run to instead rifle a bullet to WR Sidney Rice. The toss was intercepted and Minnesota never saw the ball again. Minutes later in overtime, QB Drew Brees marched the Saints into Viking territory and a 40-yard field goal split the uprights, unleashing a blizzard of gold and white confetti from the Superdome ceiling. So it’s only fitting that the two teams who flirted with perfection this season – the Saints started 13-0; the Colts 14-0 – meet in Miami to decide the championship.The logical place to begin examining this matchup is to look at the engines that drive both highly-productive scoring machines: quarterbacks Manning and Brees. For two signal callers that operate mostly in weatherproof facilities, they both fare quite well playing outdoors. Current NFL MVP Manning has gone 41-22 SU outdoors, including 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS versus .700 or greater opposition. Those numbers improve to an eye-catching 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when the Colts are a pick or favored. Though Brees has compiled a mediocre 27-24 SU mark away from the Superdome, he does own a 30-17-4 ATS record away outdoors, including 12-2 ATS off back-to-back wins. But when it comes to squaring off against tough competition, the New Orleans QB has rung the ATS register with greater frequency. Brees is 19-5 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents (5-0 SU and ATS this season) while Manning has struggled to a 9-17 ATS mark versus comparable foes, including 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS if his adversary is off an ATS loss. Yes, we’re aware that Peyton is 16-0 SU this season in contests where he’s played the entire game. However, seven of those wins came by just 4 or less points.
The Colts own a flawless 5-0 SU and ATS series edge of late over New Orleans but the teams have met only once in the previous six seasons. More revealing is the fact that each team faced five common opponents this season. The Saints went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning the stats by an average +78 YPG while Indy went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, losing the stats by an average -12 YPG… thus advantage New Orleans. The boys from the Big Easy look even more impressive when we note their domination of the AFC over the past two seasons: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS. Those numbers include a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009 with every win coming by double-digits. When matched up against fellow playoff teams from this season, both teams posted identical 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS records. Though technically a ‘rookie’ head coach, Indy’s Jim Caldwell is finishing his eighth year with the franchise and served as assistant head coach to Tony Dungy since the 2005 season. Fourth-year Saints head coach Sean Payton has excelled in today’s role, going 10-4 SU and ATS versus a team off back-to-back wins (5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the Saints are also off consecutive wins). New Orleans has been an underdog only once this season and that was in its final game of the year against Carolina, basically a ‘lay down’ affair where Payton rested many key players. Like last year when the Cardinals reached the game with Roman Numerals for the first time ever, so, too, do the Saints. Unfortunately for the Black-and-Gold, the last three teams to make their Super Bowl debut are 0-3 SU (the last squad to win a Super Bowl in its debut was Tampa Bay in SB XXXVII). Our database also informs us that the last six teams to enter the Super Bowl off a spread loss are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS and the last No.1 NFC seed to win a Super Bowl was the ’99 Rams. However, Indianapolis will have to buck some strong trends if they expect to grab the green as favorites. Super Bowl chalk of 7 or less points has gone 6-11-1 ATS, including 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back home games. In fact, the last 14 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 10-4 SU but just 4-8-2 ATS. And if the Colts are held to their season average of 26 points, it could be lights out for Indy: the last fifteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-13-1 ATS! It’s a must that both clubs put at least 21 points on the board, too, because teams who fall below that category are a money-burning 1- 24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS.
Of course, we can’t end the discussion without offering up one of our Playbook
INCREDIBLE STATS: Since 1995 there have been seven Super Bowl games when one team rushed the ball for 4.0 or more YPR (Saints) versus an opponent that allowed 4.0 or more YPR (Colts). The favorite in these games is 0-4-1 ATS; the underdog is 2-0 ATS, winning both games in straight-up fashion – as double-digit dogs, no less! Our database adds further support by pointing out that NFC teams are 18-11 SU and 17- 10-2 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS versus .800 > opponents. While other questions abound (who does Archie Manning root for – his beloved Saints or his son?), we must point out that the two finalists are equally vulnerable on defense. There’s a saying we follow close to the vest in this business: “When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking.” We’re thinking everyone sees Peyton Manning scurrying off to Disneyland. Maybe he does, but laying points with a team that owns as many defensive holes as the Colts is a recipe for disaster. In what may be the ultimate irony surrounding this game, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall in the United States, it first hit Miami before moving on to devastate the Big Easy. New Orleans may be called the ‘Crescent City’ but the Saints come full circle here today. Who Dat!
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping



