Friday, January 06, 2012
Marc Lawrence Wildcat Weekend Upset
ATLANTA over NY Giants by 3
When the Falcons return to the postseason for the second straight year the first time in their franchise history this week, the Giants will make an appearance for the first time in three years thanks their division-clinching win over the Cowboys. Atlanta’s run to the playoffs is most deserving as they were outstatted in only one of their final 10 games of season. In addition, the Dirty Birds have cleaned up in games under head coach Mike Smith against inferior opposition, going 14-1 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in games with a win percentage of less than .666 in which they own the better record.
And speaking of owning the better record, it’s been an advantage for underdogs in the playoffs, too, as they are 18-12 SU and 20-10 ATS in non-Super Bowl postseason games since 1980. Granted, life on the playoff road has been wearisome for teams off a season-ending division game, but like the Saints, the Falcons were bounced from the playoffs as a favorite in their opening round game against the Packers and they figure to come fully focused today. That’s especially good news for squads that have the better record, as these teams are 23-9 SU and 20-12 ATS in fi rst round playoff games. Granted, the Giants have enjoyed great postseason success, going 18-7 ATS in their last 25 contests. But further examination fi nds the bulk of the money coming as a dog where they are 12-3 ATS taking points in the playoffs. To their credit, the G-Men played to the level of opposition this season, going 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS against .500 or better opponents. And QB Eli Manning set an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter touchdown tosses this season. The bottom line is the Falcons bring the better defense and the better running game into this fray – and we like dogs that own the better numbers.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 30, 2011
College Bowl & NFL Upsets for New Year’s Weekend
WASHINGTON over Baylor by 3
Before this year, Heisman winner Robert Griffi n III actually experienced more losses than wins in his college career. However, right from a season-opening win over TCU to victories over Oklahoma and Texas along with the Heisman hardware, it’s been a season to remember for RG III and his Bears. And we think they’ll remember the Alamo (Bowl)– just not in a good way. We realize that a 5-1 start has dissipated into a 2-4 fi nish in Seattle but the Huskies did turn around a 3-6 disaster in 2010 with four straight victories. And ‘remember’ – one of those was in the Holiday Bowl against a Nebraska team that destroyed them, 56-21, in the regular season. It also appears that HC Steve Sarkisian takes to extra oxygen (5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with rest) like Hef takes to Viagra, and that should help the Huskies improve to 9-2 SU and ATS in bowl games off a SU and ATS win and 6-1 ATS as dogs of 13 or less points versus Big 12 opposition. And while we’re all aware of the PLAYBOOK yearbook cover jinx (just ask Terrelle Pryor and Joe Paterno), it may actually pale in comparison to the fact that Heismanwinning favorites of 7 or more points are just 1-10 ATS as bowlers. To make matters worse for a Baylor squad seeking its fi rst bowl win since 1992, not only are Big 12 bowl favorites off a win of 8or more points a lifeless 0-9 ATS but they are also 0-7 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or more points versus PAC 10/12 opposition. Convincing numbers, indeed, but the cherry on top comes from our PLAYBOOK.com database as it notes: .600 or greater pre-New Year’s Day favorites of 7 or more points that allow more than 26 PPG on the season are 0-9 ATS. And thanks to a Bears’ defense (479 DYPG) that has more holes than the Texan one in 1836 – as well as all other bowl teams this season – we have no choice but to grab the points. ‘Remember’ to do the same.
PENN STATE OVER HOUSTON BY 3
Two teams that suffered major season-ending disappointments square off in the Cotton Bowl. Houston blew a BCS mega-payday for both its team and Conference USA thanks to a stunning 49-28 home loss to Southern
Miss in the league title game to land here. Meanwhile, Penn State had to endure not only a 45-7 drubbing at Wisconsin that cost the Lions a berth in the Big Ten’s fi rst conference championship game, but they also had to fi ght through a mortifying sex scandal involving former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky that led to the dismissal of legendary 46-year head coach Joe Paterno. Thus, the question here is: will the press still be fanning the fl ames of the Joe Pa/Sandusky story or will they look past the program’s shared pain to concentrate on the football team’s chances against oncebeaten Houston? As always, we’ll look to our objective database fi rst and it informs us that ‘Bubble Burst’ teams (read: the Cougars) in bowl games are just 10-13 SU and 9-14 ATS, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS if they allow 13 or more PPG and surrendered 40 or more points in a season ending setback (where else are you going to read that?). Add Houston’s discouraging bowl history to the mix – 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS as bowlers since 1981 – and suddenly QB Case Keenum’s jaw-dropping 45 TD’s and 5,099 passing yards this season don’t guarantee that the Coogs will cover today’s TD spread. Defense is the key as Houston has not faced a stop unit as stifl ing as Penn State’s all year (allowing just 16 PPG). In fact, if we throw out the Lions’ aforementioned blowout by the Badgers, the highest point total given up by PSU’s ‘D’ was 27 points – and that was to No. 2 Alabama. Overall, the Lions’ limited six foes to 10 points or less and will be primed to put some big-time heat on Keenum. Yes, the Cougars rebounded nicely from last year’s losing effort that snapped a fi ve-year bowl skein, and Keenum’s incredible 18,685 career passing yards (over 10 miles) will have many looking Houston’s way. Instead, we see the undervalued Nits grabbing the SU win and the money after a hard-fought, physical contest.Joe Paterno was the only coach to ever win the Fiesta, Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls; sadly, he’ll be absent today as his former team looks to cash a winning ‘ticket’ in Dallas.
Wisconsin over Oregon by 6
Besides the obvious lure of the Alabama-LSU matchup and Stanford taking a shot at No. 3 Oklahoma State, THIS is the game we can’t wait to see: Oregon’s blazing speed pitted against the slug-it-out physical style of the Badgers. With Wisconsin showing up as an underdog for the fi rst time all season, we’d like you to chew on this. Wisky averaged 45 PPG this season (scored 35 or more 11 of 13 games) and Oregon is 1-26 ATS as a favorite in games in which it allows 35 or more points! Just how costly was the Ducks’ 3-point defeat against USC? Last year’s Oregon team played in the BCS title game despite allowing more then 500 yards three times; this year’s squad surrendered more than 500 yards only once. Bret Bielema’s team returns to its second consecutive Rose Bowl (lost last year to TCU) with a superior offense thanks to QB Russell Wilson, whose elusive scrambling and pinpoint accuracy perfectly complement the battering-ram rushing attack led by RB Monte Ball. But let’s not overlook the Badgers’ defense, holding foes to just 17 PPG while making opposing offenses travel a whopping 17.2 yards to score a single point. More good news for Bucky: the dog in Badgers’ bowl games is 9-3 ATS and if Wisconsin shows up as a bowl dog with a win percentage of .800 or better, they’ve barked their way to a perfect 5-0 ATS mark. Ducks’ coach Chip Kelly does own a stout 16-5 SU and 15-6 ITS effort versus bowlers during his brief tenure at Eugene but the web-footed ones are winless as chalk (0-5 ATS) against the Big Ten since 2001 – and Oregon’s last Rose Bowl win came way back in 1917. Look for QB Wilson to cap his single scintillating season at Madison with a huge going-away present as the Badgers ground the Ducks.
VA TECH over Michigan by 10
While we don’t think the Hokies should be ranked ahead of ACC champ Clemson, we still feel Frank Beamer’s bunch is radically undervalued in this matchup. It’s true that Michigan is on its way back to elite status under the direction of fi rst-year head coach Brady Hoke but Virginia Tech hasn’t exactly dropped out of sight, becoming the only team in college football to record 10 wins in each of the last eight seasons. In defense of Hoke, we’ll let you know that the last Michigan head coach to win 10 games in his fi rst season with the Wolverines was Fielding Yost in 1901! But we’ll remind you once again that bowl favorites with fi rst-year coaches are a notto-be-trusted 11-21-1 ATS. Michigan has really burned the money in today’s role, going 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games versus an opponent with a winning record. And though you may counter by noting that the majority of those failures came under the departed Rich Rodriguez, Hoke is just 3-7 SU and ATS versus an opponent off SU favorite loss in his head coaching career. More bad news for the Maize-and-Blue: ACC bowlers off a loss are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Big Ten since 1997 and, best of all, ACC bowl dogs off a loss are a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS. We hate to invoke the name of Rich Rod again but the truth is the Wolverines have gone 9-20 SU and 6-21-1 ATS from Game Six out over the last four years, including 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS versus greater-than .800 foes. Amazingly, in a 25-year career with Hokies, this is only the second Big Ten adversary that Beamer will have faced (1-0 SU and ATS). In addition, coach Beamer is also the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 3. The clincher comes courtesy of our tireless database: bowlers who lost their conference championship game that allow 17.2 or less PPG are 7-0 ATS when not laying more than 6 points. In a game that pits Hoke against Hokies, we’ll stick with the latter and fade the
Wolverines.
SMU over Pittsburgh by 3
Back in the old days, a team received a bowl invitation as a reward for an outstanding season. Not any more. In fact, if we established the criteria that any team must (a) own a winning record overall and (b) own a winning record in its own conference, 21 of the 70 schools that qualifi ed for post-season play this year would NOT have made the cut. One of those teams staying home would be 6-6 Pittsburgh, a program dealing with its third head coaching change in less than a year (Michael Haywood, who replaced Dave Wannstedt, never coached a game before getting canned, and current HC Todd Graham has already accepted the head job at Arizona State for 2012). Thus, DC Keith Patterson will lead the Panthers today before new head coach Paul Chryst moves over from Wisconsin. Similarly, there was some concern in Dallas that SMU coach June Jones was sniffi ng around for a better job but his top option – Texas A&M – went for Houston’s Kevin Sumlin, so JJ will be staying put for the time being. The Mustangs busted out of the stall in 2011 with a 5-1 SU start but quickly headed to the glue factory with an awful 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS fi nish. However, we think that losing streak brings plenty of value to the 18-returning starter ponies, a team that was embarrassed by Army as 7.5-point chalk in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl. We also unearthed more than a few negative trends for Graham but those get tossed into the trash following the recent coaching carousel high-jinks. SMU hasn’t done well SU against bowlers the last three seasons (5-14) but they’re catching 5-6 points here and our database informs us that the dog is 6-0 SU and ATS of late in Mustangs’ bowl games. That’s enough ammo for us considering the Panthers’ players are likely in a state of emotional turmoil. Jones earns at least one week of his inflated salary by leading his ponies to the upset here.
PRO PICKS
Dallas over NY Giants by 3
Could NBC have asked for a better way to end the regular season? We’re curious to see which companies will be able to afford the advertising costs that the network will demand for this winner-takeall showdown. Yep, win and in; lose and go home. For starters, you can bet the Lexus your girlfriend just bought you for Christmas –while somehow managing to have the theme music playing in your apartment elevator – that Tony Romo will be at the Dallas helm. And that’s a good thing as Romo is 10-3 SU and 8-4-1 ATS away off a SU loss, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS versus a winning foe (4-0 with revenge). And all those negative Cowboys’ numbers in December that we’ve grown accustomed to will not be remembered with the playoffs on the line today – and our AWESOME ANGLE taking center stage. In fact, that 92% proposition on page 2 ties in nicely
to the Giants’ ineptness as division chalk. Not only are the G-Men 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as chalk versus NFC East foes, including 0-5 ATS last fi ve, but they’re 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS as home favorites versus the division. Tom Couglin’s crew is also 2-9 ATS versus winning opposition off a division game while Coughlin, himself, is 3-6 SU and ATS in LHG’s off a SU win. And when you factor in that the Giants’ eight victories this season have come against teams that are a combined 55-65, you begin to understand why ‘Round Two’ goes to the Cowboys. If this game has half the excitement of the one that took place three short weeks ago, then yes, Faith, we “will be waiting all day for Sunday night.’ Points are optional as New York (Giants), New York (Jets) spend the post-season together.
Houston over Tennessee by 8
According to our NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE chart on page 10, the Titans need to win and the Bengals lose in order to open any possible playoff doors for the Titans – so there fi gures to be a lot of scoreboard watching by Mike Munchak’s minions today. That’s fi ne with us. We love fading ‘must-win’ teams with fattened lines, especially knowing that road teams in season fi nales that are on a 0-3 ATS skein are 1-15 SU and 1-13-2 ATS when facing .600 or greater opposition since 1985! And just because Houston has already clinched a spot in postseason play, they realize that today’s game is still a virtual must-win for them. That’s because only ONE team has ever entered the postseason on a three-game losing streak and gone on to win the Super Bowl (2009 Saints). The Texans know that’s a tall order and with their 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record in Last Home Games, they should avoid that scenario with a bounce-back win. Teams that qualify for the playoffs are a stout 22-8-1 ATS in last game situations when playing off back-to-back losses. And if a playoff-bound squad shows up as a home dog in its fi nal regular season contest, they’ve cashed to the tune of 20-7 ATS. Regardless of Houston head coach Gary Kubiak’s decision on who plays and who sits, there are just too many good numbers favoring the hosts to ignore here. Texans git’r done.
Kansas City over Denver by 11
NBC passed on this game in favor of the Cowboys-Giants ‘winner takes all’ battle Sunday night. Regardless, this contest is fi lled with plenty of intrigue as QB Kyle Orton returns to the city that cast him astray in favor of its new savior, Tim Tebow. That matchup in itself is must-see TV, as is the importance of the contest for the Broncos and their prospects of making the playoffs. Simply put ,a win and Denver captures the wild AFC West. They can also cop the crown with an Oakland loss. In order to do so, they will need a dramatic reversal of fortune on this fi eld as they’ve gagged worse than Linda Lovelace as home favorites of late, going 4-22-2 ATS, including 1-18-2 ATS when the ponies own a .500 or greater record. Making matters worse is the Chiefs’ 12-3 SU and ATS log in this series when off a loss and seeking revenge. That and interim coach Romeo Crennel’s 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record on the road against opponent’s off back-to-back losses.The clincher, though, is this beauty from our database: NFL teams at home in their fi nal game of season that are one game over .500 are 3-17 ATS when facing division foes. KC and its new chief, Orton, get their revenge behind a tough-as-nails defense that has held three of its last fi ve foes to season-low yards. We love Tim Terrifi c to death…just not today.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 23, 2011
Marc Lawrence Pro Upsets December 24-25
SAN DIEGO over Detroit by 8
A win today and the once-laughable Lions can fi nally clinch a trip to the elusive land of the playoffs. But with both teams still alive in the postseason chase, don’t expect the visitors to be quite so accommodating. Norv must have fi nally fi gured out which switch to engage as the re-energized Chargers have won three straight games by an average score of 36-13. They also show up in Motown brandishing a lethal 13-1 ATS mark as dogs off BB SU wins and an eye-popping 21-4-1 ATS effort in domed stadiums (see INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 2 for more). And Turner himself, who has all but been assured of getting the boot at season’s end, chips in with a 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS record as a dog off three SU wins in a row. After winning its fi rst two home games of the season, Detroit has dropped three out of fi ve on the scoreboard, losing to quality foes (San Francisco, Atlanta, Green Bay) while managing wins over lowly Carolina and Minnesota. We must acknowledge the Lions’ outstanding 18-3 ATS mark as home chalk of 2 or more points when playing off back-to-back SU wins, but head coach Jim Schwartz’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS career mark against teams off a trio of wins is equally disturbing. Our database also sides with the Bolts here as it tells us: Game Fourteen or greater home favorites that have failed to cover in at least three consecutive contests are 5-11 ATS versus a foe that’s cashed three ATS decisions in a row. The trump card here is QB Philip Rivers’ 23-2 SU career mark in December – including 4-0 SU and ATS as a dog. Look for the Lions’ Matthew Stafford to be running for his life all afternoon as the Chargers keep the cork in Detroit’s champagne bottle for one more week.
NY GIANYS over Jets by 10
Sometimes we have to search far and wide for meaningful ATS history surrounding a given matchup – and sometimes the numbers just rain from the sky and fall right into our lap. Such is the case here as the G-Men stand head and shoulders above their cross-town rivals in the ATS department. Not only have the Giants won and covered four straight against Rex’s Flyboys, they enter this ‘town ain’t big enough for both of us’ fray with a 13-6 SU and 15-4 ATS mark in away games versus an opponent off a double-digit SU loss, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when the tall guys are also off a SU loss. And though it’s hard to believe Tom Coughlin’s crew could play as bad as they did in last week’s loss to Washington, it’s a fact that his team thrives in road games following Redskin rumbles, going an impressive 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. Simply put, we’ll back Giants QB Eli Manning as a dog over the Jets’ Mark Sanchez for the remaining days of our life on earth, a notion that’s supported by the younger Manning’s 16-7 SU and 16-6-1 ATS record away ‘between the threes’ (game spreads of +3 to -3 points). Meanwhile, Joe Willie’s old team shows up almost empty-handed from an ATS success standpoint: theJets have crashed and burned as December chalk off a SU loss versus a foe off a SU loss, going 0-8 ATS, and head coach Rex Ryan owns a poor 1-5 SU and ATS log off a double-digit loss. To make matters worse, the Jets also dress up in the same unfortunate role as the Titans today: NFL Game Fifteen home favorites in Last Home Games off a double-digit loss are a bankroll-depleting 6-31 ATS since 1980. Whew! Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 cements it as Eli and company manage to silence the Round Mound of Sound – for a little while, at least – by grounding the Jets today.
OAKLAND over Kansas City by 8
With the Broncos and Raiders losing and the Chargers and Chiefs winning, the West just got wilder. With only two games left on the slate and the division looking up at the Tebows, the ‘playoffs’ essentially begin this afternoon in Arrowhead for both KC and Oakland. Kudos to interim HC Romeo Crennel and newly inserted QB Kyle Orton for knocking off the Packers but can they change a series history that has seen the visitor win 12 of 17 SU while cashing 15 times? Orton’s 1-2 SU and ATS record (all as a favorite) versus the Raiders says no, as does KC’s 2-8 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of 2 or less points after pulling the rug out from an undefeated opponent (where else can you fi ndstats like this!). Worse yet, the last home game of the season has not been kind to KC supporters (0-4 SU and ATS) the past four years. Toss in Oakland’s 7-0 ATS log on the division highway off back-to-back SU losses along with a solid 6-0 ATS mark off three straight losses and you can see why we think the Raiders will be playing meaningful football on New Year’s day while rooting for the Chiefs to beat SNL’s favorite new whipping boy. At pick, plus or minus, look for the Raiders to avenge the 28-0 whitewash beating they took at home in late October– a game in which they actually won the stats battle.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
