Monday, January 05, 2009

Diamonds and Rust

NFL PLAYOFF REST – OR RUST?
By Marc Lawrence

It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle. But such is not the case today. As Bob Dylan put it so sagely, “The times are a-changin’.”

Don’t know if you’ve noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead. Perhaps it’s been an over-adjustment by the linesmaker. Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in season finales. Whatever the case, to ask them to ‘turn on the switch’ two weeks later simply isn’t working.

Let’s examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a ten to a twelve-team playoff format. Here are the results. (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners):



1991-2007
55-17 SU and 38-32-2 ATS

Overall an unspectacular 54% winning effort against the number. However, let’s break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1991-1999
30-6 SU and 22-13-1 ATS

2000-2007
25-11 SU and 16-19-1 ATS

Uh, oh. Do you see what I see? Like the Exxon Valdez, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking oil at an alarming rate. In fact, over the last 10 games these teams appear to have blown a gasket, going just 4-6 SU and 1-9 ATS.

Now what is your take on coaches resting starters in Week Sixteen of the season? So this week, take the time to carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition. It could be time well spent…



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Friday, January 02, 2009

Marc Lawrence College Bowls and NFL Wildcard Upsets

College Bowls Upset Plays (continued)

Upset Bowl Record 2008: 5-0

Tulsa Plus over Ball State (Tulsa Must Be +3 To Qualify As a Play)

Poor Ball State. The Gonads enter tonight’s BCS Championship table-setter victimized by a Double Bubble Burst. Not only did BSU see its hopes for a perfect 13-0 season and a MAC title blown to smithereens in a stunning 42-24 loss to Buffalo, just days later the team saw head coach (as in MAC Head Coach of the Year) Brady Hoke skip town after engineering a deal to take over at San Diego State. WTF? We can see bailing out on a program if you’re heading to a plum job (Rodriguez bolting early to Michigan, for example) but the Aztecs? Must have been the $700,000 per year offer from SDSU – almost twice what Hoke was slated to earn in 2009 with Ball State. The Hokester put in six years at Muncie and the program was finally coming to fruition under his direction so his players – who will be led by new coach Stan Parrish–must be extremely disappointed by recent events. Meanwhile, Tulsa backers can only pray that Ball State doesn’t show up for this game wearing white uniforms. East Carolina wore white in its recent C-USA title bout with Tulsa and Hurricane QB David Johnson completed 5 of his passes to the wrong team. Johnson also lost a fumble, accounting
for 6 of Tulsa’s 7 turnovers that doomed the Oklahomans, 27-24. Today’s game looks to be a battle of wills between the ‘Nadsters’ defense that led the MAC with 16 INTs, ranked #2 in points allowed and #3 in total yards against a Golden Hurrricane attack that finished in the Top 10 nationally in points scored, yards rushing and yards passing. We’ll have to side with a Tulsa no-huddle offense that set a conference scoring record with 616 points over a Ball State ‘D’ that just got torched for 42 by the Bulls. That notion is bolstered by the fact that .846 or better Bowl favorites off one loss exact are just 5-9 ATS (1-4 SU and ATS since 1998) – and that BSU faced the weakest schedule of ALL Bowlers this year. Meanwhile, C-USA Bowl teams are 8-1 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss and 8-2 ATS when rested (3-1 SU and ATS under current coach Graham). There’s no denying the Gonads field a potent offense of their own with QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis but the continuity that produced their 12-game win streak has been severely disrupted. And even though both squads enter off losses, Tulsa did a much better job of playing from behind against ECU. Adios, Ball State…




NFL Playoffs Wildcard Upsets

Miami Plus over Baltimore [Miami Must Be +4 to Qualify As a Play]

What a terrific turnaround by the Dolphins this season. From a one win blunder to an eleven-win wonder, they proved the acquisition of a proven winner at quarterback (Chad Pennington) and a competent
coaching staff can do wonders. Sure, the Fish won 7 of their eleven games by a touchdown or less but that’s what winning is all about, triumphing against all odds regardless of the margin. After dropping a 27-13 loss to the Ravens here as 3-point favorites in Game Six of the season, Miami went on to win 9 of its final ten games to conclude the season. Meanwhile the Ravens, who like Miami finished in last place in their division last season, also enter today’s fray on a winning run with 9 wins in their last eleven games. They made their mark this season against sub .666 opposition, though, going 11-1 SU and ATS. When paired against .666 or greater competition the Black Birds were 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. It’s interesting to note that playoff teams who own the same or a better win percentage than their favored opponent are 16-9 SU and 19-5-1 ATS in postseason play since 1980. We like veteran Pennington’s chances to avenge the aforementioned loss suffered here earlier this season against the rookies (coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco). Shades of Crockett and Tubbs – it’s Miami nice.

Last Week: 1-0-1 Season: 26-11-1


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Friday, December 26, 2008

Marc Lawrence College Bowls and NFL Upsets Thru Jan. 3, 2009

Emerald Bowl

Miami Plus Over California

This year’s Emerald Bowl finds the Hurricanes traveling clear across the country while the Bears of Berkeley have been hibernating just 13 miles from AT&T Park. We don’t expect the travel to be a factor as the Canes found themselves in a similar circumstance in their last bowl appearance, the 2006 Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, when they came away with the SU win against Nevada. The Baby Canes won’t be arriving with their 2-headed QB monster as “starter” Robert Marve will be staying home for academic reasons. We think this will be a blessing in disguise as it appears that Marve will likely be leaving the beaches of South Florida, opening the way for true freshman Jacory Harris to take over the controls on a full time basis. FYI: Harris has NEVER LOST as a starting QB at the high school level or with the Canes. Harris and the Canes are looking at this one as an early spring game. “This is going to determine how we’re going to look next year,” said Harris. “We want to go out with a bang. We want to go out there and put on a good performance.” Not only do we think they’ll put on a good show but we wouldn’t be surprised if they get the outright win: our trusty database tells us that ACC bowl dogs are 9-2 ATS over the last 4 years while Pac 10 Bowl favs are a pitiful 4-24 ATS versus a foe off a SU loss or a win of 3 or less points. Throw in the fact that Pac 10 Bowlers are 1-5 SU and ATS as favs vs the ACC – and that the “U” is 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances – and you have the makings of another successful bowl road trip. Remember, this game isn’t in Kansas
and Cal’s Jeff Tedford isn’t exactly the Wizard of Westwood. Follow the green and orange brick road as it leads directly to payday city!

College Football: Regular Season Record 2008: 30-24

Last Week Bowls: 0-1

NFL: Last Week: 0-1 Season: 25-11




Valero Alamo Bowl

Northwestern Plus over Missouri


Touting QB Chase Daniel as a Heisman Trophy candidate and carrying a 12-2 record from 2007, Mizzou opened this season with a powerful 5-0 rush, blasting opponents while lighting up the scoreboard for 53.4 PPG. However, the euphoria was quickly squelched by back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Texas. And even though the Tigers rebounded to reach the Big 12 Championship game, they got a 62-21 dose of reality from Oklahoma that might take longer than a few weeks to shake: Bowl chalk of 4.5 or more points off a loss in a Championship game are just 4-9 ATS, including 0-4 ATS
when off a loss of 20 or more points. Northwestern, on the other hand, was a major surprise this year, casting aside a 10-14 SU effort in 2 seasons under coach Pat Fitzgerald to fashion an incredible 9-3 record. An upset of Mizzou here would give the Wildcats just their 2nd bowl victory and 2nd 10-win season in school history. But unlike years gone by, NU’s traditional Achilles’ heel – the defense – more than held its own by limiting foes to just 19 PPG while racking up 33 sacks. The Purple Cats also have a pretty decent signal caller of their own in C.J. Bacher who should make some hay against a Missouri pass ‘D’ that allowed over 325 yards in each of its last 3 games. And if superb RB Tyrell Sutton has sufficiently recovered from a serious wrist injury to be remotely effective, Northwestern can engineer clock-killing drives that will keep Daniel and his array of offensive weapons (pay special attention to WR Jeremy Maclin) pacing the sidelines and off the scoreboard. Alamo Bowl favorites have cashed in only 2 of the previous 7 tries and Big 12 Bowl favs are only 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS when tackling a Big 10 opponent allowing fewer than 23 PPG. It also doesn’t hurt the Wildcats’ cause that Mizzou OC Dave Christensen has announced he’s leaving to take the head coaching job at Wyoming, even though he will be calling plays in tonight’s game. Missouri coach Pinkel showed he could motivate his team after last year’s humbling loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game when he led the Tigers to a convincing 38-7 Cotton Bowl rout of Arkansas but we’re not looking for history to repeat here in Alamo country. This catfight goes to NU.


Pacific Life Holiday Bowl

Oregon Plus over Oklahoma State

Another potentially high-scoring matchup finds both teams’ coaching staffs in a state of flux. Last week Oklahoma State DC Tim Beckman accepted the top slot at Toledo and launched his way straight out of Stillwater to start recruiting for the Rockets, leaving head coach Mike Gundy and his defensive assistants with the task of preparing a game plan. Oregon faced a similar situation when OC Chip Kelly was poised to interview for the Syracuse job but the Ducks kept him in Eugene by naming Kelly ‘coach in waiting’ behind current head man Mike Bellotti. The 12th ranked Cowboys will be looking to lasso their first 10-win season since 1988 behind the pitch-and-catch combo of QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant but the Pokes stumbled down the stretch, losing 2 of their closing 3 games. The #15 Ducks fl y into San Diego on a 3-game winning streak, including an impressive 65-38 road shellacking of Oregon State that denied the Beavers a trip to the Rose Bowl. In fact, the deeper we dig into the ATS archives, the better we like the web-feet. Our database informs us that Bowlers who scored 50 or more points in their last game are 7-1 SU and ATS since 1990 versus opponents that allowed 40 or more points in their last game. The Ducks average over 30 PPG on the highway under Bellotti and pre-New Year’s day dogs who score 27 or more points are an astonishing 86% proposition, going 110-18ATS! Okie State plays right into that scenario with a sad 6-17 ATS mark as chalk when allowing over 28 PPG, including 1-18 ATS against .600 or greater foes like Oregon. Bellotti, who has roamed the sidelines at Autzen Stadium for 14 seasons, has compiled an 18-8 ATS record when playing with rest (11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS versus greater than .666 opposition) and led his Ducks to a 56-21 rout of South Florida as 6-point dogs in last year’s Sun Bowl. Today he’ll be counting on JUCO transfer QB Jeremiah Masoli and running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount to control the ball and keep the Cowboys’ equally explosive offense off the field. With PAC 10 Bowl dogs cashing in 16 of their last 20 games and Oregon finding itself as the featured team in this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2, so will we.


Chick Fil A Bowl

LSU Plus over Georgia Tech

Defending National Champion LSU took a big hit this year in terms of its supposed invincibility, losing more than 2 games for the first time in coach Les Miles’ 4-year stint at Baton Rouge. Even worse, the
Bayou Bengals saw 3 of their 5 season defeats come at Death Valley against SEC opponents. But don’t despair, Tiger lovers – Miles is a sensational 17-0 SU and 11-4 ATS versus non league opponents and defending National Champs are 6-0 SU and ATS as Bowlers when taking on a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Paul Johnson’s arrival at Georgia Tech from Navy was viewed as a huge question mark since many felt his triple-option offensive attack just wouldn’t cut it against speedier, more athletic competition. Wrong. Even if the Yellow Jackets lose this game, they’ll finish with their best record
since 2000 – also the last year they managed to knock off bitter rival Georgia (GT silenced the Dawgs between the hedges this year, 45-42). However, despite Tech’s giddy success, we feel LSU fought much tougher opponents each week in its conference than the Ramblin’ Wreck faced in their league. And with ACC favorites covering just 5 of their last 20 chances against the SEC, including 2-12 ATS off a win of 3 or more points, we feel the wrong team is favored in today’s slugfest. Sure, Tech will be making its 12th consecutive Bowl appearance but LSU will use this game as a springboard to return to
the brand of football that earned the Tigers a 34-6 SU record in their 3 prior seasons. And even with the Jackets’ campus sitting a mere two miles away from the Georgia Dome, we expect LSU to bring
enough fans to equal or exceed the noise level generated by Tech’s supporters. We won’t deny that we’re big fans of GT coach Johnson but 1st year coaches with a new team have posted a laid-out-on-the slab 0-5 ATS mark off a SUATS win in Bowl games versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. This one goes to the Mad Hatter.

Gator Bowl

Nebraska Plus over Clemson

Nice job by both freshman coaches in getting their teams to Jacksonville this New Year’s Day. Husker boss Bo Pelini took over a program that was a red-faced embarrassment last year and instilled a modicum of pride and a heavy dose of defense (Nebraska’s stop-unit improved 115 YPG this season from last) to bring them back to life. As a result, the Cornhuskers are on a neat 6-1 ITS (In The Stats) roll heading into this contest. Think about that for a moment. We’re talking about a team that has outgained 6 of its last 7 opponents – all in Big 12 play where the yards are piled up faster than banks and automakers looking for bailouts. One especially salient stat in Big Corn’s favor is their 8-0 ATS log in bowl games when playing off a win of more than 7 points. On the Clemson side of the game, former interim and newly-named head coach Dabo Swinney leads his troops into this challenge with the knowledge that bowlers riding a 3-0 SU and ATS win streak are just 11-31 ATS when off an ATS win of 8 or more points. That win was against bitter rival South Carolina. We point that out because the Tigers are just 3-8 SU and ATS in bowl games off a win over the Gamecocks, including 0-6 ATS as favorites! In some cases a little Dabo’ll do you. Not against this ilk. Nebraska completes the turnaround with a statement making victory.


NFL Upset Sunday. Dec. 28

New Orleans Plus over Carolina

Yet another road favorite with the weight of the world on their shoulders taking on a team that is playing its best ball of the season–and we’re there. Series history aficionados will side with the Panthers,
citing a powerful 13-1 ATS mark. Us, we’ll point to the fact that the host was favored in ten of those contests. Instead, we’ll opt for form over function, citing the Saints’ 7-0 ITS (in The Stats) mark since their Bye Week in November. Following last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Giants in New York, Carolina must now try and regroup while overcoming a hurdle they’ve tripped over with regularity in the past – namely chalk against formidable opposition. That’s confirmed by the Cats’ 4-9-1 ATS mark under John Fox as a favorite against greater than .450 opposition off a SU and ATS win, including 1-7-1 ATS when going into revenge. With that, we’ll sink our teeth into a juicy Bourbon Street steak… rare, please.

Detroit Plus over Green Bay

Like the Big E once said, “It’s now or never” for the lowly Lions as they look to avoid going down as the worst team in NFL history. To dodge that ugly moniker they’ll need to piece together an old fashioned upset. Good news if you’re a Lion lover: winless road dogs during the 2nd half of the season are 15-3 ATS the last 22 years, while managing to win 7 of the games straight-up. Bad news is Green Bay’s success in this series (5-0 SU and ATS last five meetings). That was then and this is now, however. The Pack’s 1-9 ATS mark as a favorite in the 2nd of back-to-back division games against a foe off back-to-back losses is more to our liking. And at the wire it’s… Green Bay by a thin slice of cheese.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping