Friday, March 12, 2010
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Texas
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The NCAA committee will probably hand out invitations to seven Big 12 schools, but can any of them be trusted in this event? KANSAS does arrive with some gaudy offensive and defensive numbers but their rusty 2-11 ATS mark with 3 or more days of rest this season is cause for concern. So is their 1-5 ATS record over their last six tourney games. After last year’s opening round loss to Baylor, expect the Jayhawks to be all business. HC Bill’s Self’s 14-3 ATS post-season log against a foe off a SU dog win ensures that.
A strong showing at the Sprint Center could vault KANSAS STATE into a No. 1 seed. However, the Wildcats’ one-and-out each of the last two seasons along with their 1-3 SU and ATS record as tourney chalk this decade leaves us with too many questions.
Can MISSOURI make it two in a row? The defending champs ran through the field last year (3-0 SUATS) and their 6-3-1 ATS record in their last 10 as tourney dogs offers much promise. Keep an eye on the Tigers in the opening matchup as they are a solid 5-1 ATS vs. a conference opponent off a SU loss this season.
TEXAS has advanced to the semis or finals in each of the last 4 years. Before the loss to Baylor last season, it was the Jayhawks who handed them the boot the previous three seasons. With injuries in their starting backcourt, the Longhorns may not get the chance to avenge any of those losses.
THE SLEEPER: Baylor
The Bears caught the conference by surprise when they lost to Missouri in the title game last season. There will be no surprises this year. Baylor has rung the register in 11 of 16 conference tourney games this decade and they were 6-0 ATS this season in games against foes off a double-digit win. The question is: can they be trusted laying points? Not according to the history books as they are 0-3 SU and ATS lifetime in this tourney as a favorite. Play accordingly.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Kansas
The Jayhawks were stunned in the opening round of this tournament last year by Baylor and have been stumbling to the finish line this season. So why all the support, you ask? Simple. Kansas is the only team in the country to rank in the Top 10 in the three key statistical categories, namely: Offensive Field Goal Percentage, Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Rebounding. An angry Jayhawk, fueled with ammo like this, can be lethal. Note: avoid the Jayhawks in the opening round if they face a losing team as they are 1-9 ATS versus sub .500 conference foes under Bill Self.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
SEC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Mississippi State
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
KENTUCKY enters as the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2005 and we’ll look for them to continue their dominant play in this event. Since 1992, the Wildcats are 38-8 SU and 31-13-2 ATS, including an amazing 28-8-1 ATS as favorites of more than four points in this tourney. The top rebounding team (+10.6 margin) in the land also brings the nation’s 7th-stingiest Defensive Field Goal Percentage (36.1). That combo is a formula for SU and ATS success.
Though this site favors VANDERBILT, keep in mind that the Commodores are only 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS the last four times they played a SEC tourney game in Nashville. However, the feeling here is home cooking and five returning starters should get them to the title game.
One of three teams in this loop with five returning starters, TENNESSEE has kept it together all season despite many off-court distractions. We can expect the usual all-out effort from Bruce Pearl’s bunch but their 5-13 ATS mark in their last 18 tourney games, along with their brutal 1-7 ATS log as favorites vs an opponent off a SU win this season, may have them singing the blues in Music City, USA.
Shot-blocking sensation, Jarvis Varnado, the NCAA all-time leader in swats, leads the way for MISSISSIPPI STATE. The defending champs won four games in four days last year to claim the title. With their 12-7 SU tourney record since 1996, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four as tourney dogs, another deep run wouldn’t surprise. Don’t overlook this five-returning starter unit.
THE SLEEPER: Florida
Gators were up and down this season but their pedigree in this tourney (10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS last five years) is too much to overlook. Toss in Billy Donovan’s 44-20 career mark in post season games, including 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS against greater than .777 opposition, and suddenly UF is one opponent no team in this league is anxious to take on.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
Vols took it on the chin twice this season against rival Commodores and will be kicking their heels for the chance at a third showdown. Series history is on their side as UT is 9-3-1 ATS in revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Vandy is off a win. Bruce Pearl’s 20-5-1 ATS mark as a dog against .774 or greater competition seals the deal.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
BIG 10 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
With five returning starters and conference MVP Evan Turner hitting on cylinders, OHIO STATE appears poised to improve on last year’s runner-up finish. Led by a smothering defense that has allowed an average of 60.5 PPG in this tourney over the last five years, the Buckeyes have brought home in the cash in six of their last seven tourney appearances. Thad Matta’s bunch also comes armed with the nation’s 5th-rated Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.5). Keep in mind that the No. 1 seed has made it to the finals (3-2 SU and ATS) in five of the last six years.
When you talk about defense, usually the conversation starts with MICHIGAN STATE. And Tom Izzo’s Spartans haven’t disappointed, allowing a meager 59.9 PPG in the 12-year history of this event. The nation’s third-rated team on the boards (+9.7 RPG) will once again bring the ‘D’ as they look to “rebound” from a 2nd-round KO last year as the top-seed. Don’t’ forget about their stellar 8-1 ATS mark as dogs of more than 2 points in this tourney (see more below).
WISCONSIN will also be looking to make amends for their quick cameo last year but this quirky stat keeps us at bay: the Badgers have been favored in 12 of their last 18 conference tourney games. The six times they were taking points? How about 1-5 ATS?
Last year’s champ, PURDUE, appeared ready to defend their crown behind five returning starters but the loss of leading scorer Robbie Hummel may be too much to overcome. Until they beat the Buckeyes in last year’s title game, the Boilermakers were just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their previous 13 tourney tilts.
THE SLEEPER: Illinois
The Illini bring strong Big 10 tourney history (22-10 SU) and solid current form to the table, thus making them a desirable commodity. One the few teams in college basketball to have performed equally or better in conference competition than outside this season, Illinois was 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in Big 10 games away from Champaign this season.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Michigan State (+) vs Ohio State
Tom Izzo needs no pat on the back when it comes to the postseason, where he is 46-23 SU and 40-28-1 ATS in his career. Inside those numbers, the Izz is 31-11-1 ATS when facing a foe off a SU and ATS win and 7-2 ATS when seeking revenge. The Buckeyes sent him packing from this event last year and beat them in the only regular season meeting this year. Remember this: the Spartans are 20-5 SU and ATS this decade when playing with same-season conference revenge!
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
