Wednesday, September 01, 2010
September’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS
Like our waistlines after a finger good lickin’ Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL barge onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail. Which ones can we count on and which ones figure to belly up? Check it out.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years. Enjoy…
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Blanton, Joe 10-5
It’s not so much Blanton is incredibly effective in the last month of the season, instead it is more of a function of the right-hander keeping his team in the game, especially with Philadelphia finding a way to win in the late innings. To his credit Blanton has lowered ERA 1.25 in last 10 starts.
Correia, Kevin 8-3
The San Diego hurler has been among the better pitchers in the National League since the All-Star break. Mostly a journeyman in his career, when his pitching coach or the catcher see his slumping shoulders, they get on him to stand taller, which increases his velocity and movement on his pitches, making Correia more effective.
Greinke, Zack 10-5
Not as dominate this season, lacking the late movement on fastball which led to more strikeouts, last year’s AL Cy Young winner could still create havoc, with Kansas City having 14 games against playoff contenders this month, providing Grienke and Royals to be in spoiler role.
Johnson, Josh 7-3
The 6’7 righty is closing in on career high in innings pitched and still could tie or better previous total of season wins (15) and exceed previous high marks in ERA and WHIP with a typical strong finish.
Jurrjens, Jair 10-3
This sturdily built right-hander has been pitching better month by month since coming off the DL in late June. If he throws like usual this September, Atlanta could hold off Philadelphia and win the division.
Lester, Jon 12-3
The talented left-hander has been a big game pitcher late in the season and in the playoffs and is one of the best home field hurlers in baseball and will look to extend his dominance yet again.
Lilly, Ted 11-5
This is Lilly’s sixth stop in his career and he is making a case for hanging around L.A. with how well he’s pitched in Dodgers uniform. He’s on pace to have career lows in batting average allowed and WHIP, with the former occurring in 2002, ironically the last time he was traded in-season.
Padilla, Vicente 9-3
Most baseball fans and sports bettors for that matter wouldn’t list Padilla as a clutch pitcher, yet late in the season, this Nicaraguan continues to come up big.
Rodriguez, Wandy 8-4
For a solid portion of last year, Rodriquez was arguably the best LH chucker in the National League. After a very slow 2010 beginning, Rodriguez has scouts talking again about his command and averaging over a strikeout per inning in past 10 starts. Houston might be going nowhere, but Wandy’s stock is rising again.
Sabathia, C.C. 14-2
Try this, Google “late season clutch MLB pitchers” and guaranteed Sabathia’s name will be at the top of the first page. Off being the first pitcher in 41 years to win five or more games in August three years in a row, the left-hander wants the ball in the big games and is on track for best year of a very solid career.
Saunders, Joe 10-5
Not certain if this lefty will be able to match previous numbers pitching for Arizona club, but has bulldog mentality in the clutch.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Cain, Matt 5-10
San Francisco is losing ground to San Diego and in the wild card chase and cannot afford another mediocre month from Cain when it matters most.
Duke, Zach 3-8
A near fixture on this list month after month. If Duke were right-handed, he would be in the minor leagues since opposing teams have hit over .300 against him in his career.
Garza, Matt 5-10
Strictly a matter of maintaining focus and not letting emotions overcome him, as Garza has the ability to be a big winner. Fastball command will leave him and tries to steer pitches to correct accuracy and heater straightens out, making him more hittable.
Lincecum, Tim 4-9
It’s not like the two-time Cy Young winner is having a season like Tiger Woods, but with slight build and losing MPH on fastball this year, Lincecum is not noted finisher late in the year. Questions abound about his long term future.
Maholm, Paul 3-7
Another Pirates lefty that would lucky to break glass with his fastball. What makes Maholm better than Duke is plus changeup he can work in or out on right-hand hitters. Nevertheless, has to be near perfect most of the time and pitching for Pittsburgh further narrows margin of error.
Doug Upstone of Impactwageringsolutions.com and 3DailyWinners.com blog contributed to this article.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Monday, August 30, 2010
DO IT TO ME ONE MORE TIME
Sometimes the price you’re asked to pay for success is truly a bargain. And in today’s economy, we’ll take any and all bargains we can find.
Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the pre-season. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. However, as one of our favorite football analysts, Lee Corso, would say, “Not so fast my friend!” That’s because teams in this role are a solid 38-22-1 ATS when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the pre-season since 1983. Better yet, send them away off a double-digit win and they are a 22-7 ATS winning proposition. Dress these same guys up as dogs and they become 17-4 ATS.
One qualifying play occurred last season when Green Bay invaded Arizona as a 3.5-point dog. The Packers won the whole game, 44-37! Incidentally, they also qualified in a 14-0 ATS PERFECT subset by NOT covering their previous home victory by 15 or more points. Here is a list of the two NFL qualifying teams that will be taking to the road off back-to-back preseason home wins this week: Buffalo (at Detroit), and New Orleans at (Tennessee).
Editor’s Note: This SMART BOX column was extracted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Preseason Football Newsletter, available as a free of charge as a download on the PLAYBOOK.COM website. 100% Perfect Systems like the one outlined above appear weekly on the College and NFL cards during the regular season inside Marc Lawrence’s PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB. The PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB has gone 95-60 ATS in the past five years. To become a PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB member simply log on to PLAYBOOK.COM or call 1.800.PLAYBOOK today.
Written by HRI Publisher
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Monday, August 23, 2010
2010 NFC WEST DIVISION PREVIEW
The days of the wild, wild West are long gone and in the rear view mirror. Hall of Famers Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice have been replaced by the likes of Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Leinhart and Larry Fitzgerald in today’s NFC West.
To illustrate exactly how much of a drop off this division has suffered, consider this: In the 1980’s the NFC West was recognized as a road monster, with teams from this loop going 176-127-6 ATS away from home, including 114-80-4 in non division games and 20-4-1 in road frays when the Over/Under total was 47 or higher points.
In the same, identical roles, the 2000’s contingent was 146-191-12 ATS on the highway, including 76-126-8 ATS outside the division and 10-24 when the Over/Under total was 47 or more points.
What a remarkable drop-off. From the Hall of Fame to the Hall of Shame.
The rebuilding has started, with Pete Carroll jumping over to Seattle from USC and St. Louis pinning its hopes on Sam Bradford with the No. 1 pick of this year’s draft.
We’re betting on it being the mild, mild West for a while. At least until enough of Carroll’s Trojans find their way to Seattle.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ARIZONA
TEAM THEME: KURTESY CALL
Shaking off the stigma of being a Super Bowl-loser last season, the Cardinals became only the second such team in nine years to make it back to the playoffs the following season in 2009. While that feat put a smile on Ken Whisenhunt’s face, the loss of future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner to retirement is another matter. A lukewarm draft yielded Fordham QB John Skelton in Round 5, meaning it’s finally time for Matt Leinart to stand and deliver. He completed 66% of his passes last year in pinch-hit and mop-up roles, but will need to improve on a 14/20 career TD/INT ratio. Otherwise, import Derek Anderson, a former Pro Bowler with Cleveland, will be barking signals. Tackling the softest strength of schedule in the league – along with the possibility that emerging RB Beanie Wells can inch his team over 100 rushing yards per game – Arizona’s chances of returning to the playoffs will be like Warner’s new life in a hammock… a breeze.
PLAY ON: vs. New Orleans (10/10) – *KEY off a loss
ST. LOUIS
TEAM THEME: SAM THE MAN
Hearts were racing when the Rams designated Sam Bradford as their quarterback of the future with the first selection in this year’s NFL draft. It marked the second year in a row that a QB groomed for the NFL by quarterback coach-guru Terry Shea (Detroit’s Matthew Stafford last year) was chosen with the coveted top pick. “He certainly has all the tools to be a franchise player in this league,” said Shea about Bradford. He’ll be protected by LT Jason Smith, the No. 2 overall selection in last year’s draft. Bradford’s 175.6 career passer rating ranks No. 1 all time in college football history, making the choice a safe one. The good news is Bradford will be facing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the league in 2010. The bad news is the Rams are 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS the first four games of the season the last three years. If the break-in process doesn’t do them in, Stan Musial could be taking a back seat to a new hometown hero.
PLAY ON: as dog at Detroit (10/10)
SAN FRANCISCO
LIVE BY THE SWORD
The 49ers did an impressive job of improving their team this off-season, turning former weaknesses into potential strengths for the coming season. QB David Carr is a solid backup for Alex Smith, who will be operating with the same offensive coordinator for the first time in six years. WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr. adds the kind of speed San Francisco hasn’t witnessed in a long while. Using their two first-round picks on OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati instantly upgraded the offensive line. A strong draft was cemented when S Taylor Mays of USC became available in a 2nd round steal. And MVP LB Patrick Willis topped the league in tackles in 2009 with 114. There is a lot to like about the makeup of Mike Singletary’s squad. And there is also a lot to like about Singletary. He’s been a winner at every level of his NFL career and it appears he’ll have his team playoff bound faster than you can say Samurai Mike.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. New Orleans (9/20)
SEATTLE
TEAM THEME: ON THEIR TROJAN HORSES
The Pete Carroll era kicks off in Seattle this season and it couldn’t happen soon enough. After winning nine games in two years, the Seahawks opened their wallets and made the biggest hire in franchise history when then lured Carroll away of USC. Carroll’s first task was assembling an all-star coaching staff, including eight former USC staff members, and then overseeing a draft that proved super, with any one of his first three choices potential Rookie of the Year candidates. The players that Carroll has brought in to resurrect this program, along with the players already on the roster, will make for an explosive football team, especially on offense. QB Charlie Whitehurst was acquired form San Diego and will battle Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. Off-season additions of WR’s Mike (ex-Trojan) and Reggie Williams and draft day acquisitions of RB’s LenDale White (ex-Trojan) and Leon Washington are immediate upgrades.Yes, it appears this program should be riding high, sooner than later.
PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/5)
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
