Thursday, September 02, 2010

Wagering for Fun and Profit

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY

September 1, 2010

Dear Diary,

Have you ever made a bet where, if you lost, you wouldn’t be too upset? In fact, you might even enjoy the fact that one particular rival won? It’s a lot like sanity insurance, actually.

What am I talking about? OK, last things first. Sanity insurance is when, as a public handicapper, you don’t have near enough the money to play a Pick Six given the number of permutations required. What to do?

Simple. You make a straight $2 Pick Six on the six horses you selected to win each race in print, on the air, wherever. After all, could anyone live with themselves if they picked six straight winners sequentially and not collect?

It can be done but, trust me, it’s neither good for your self-esteem nor your confidence level.

There’s nothing worse than someone thanking you for making them semi-rich as you walk away with your bankroll between your legs. Ergo, for peace of mind, you buy sanity insurance for $2.

An emotional hedge is a variation on this theme. Say you’re a huge Yankees or Lakers fan. Given their reputations, national followings, and present skill levels, they are installed prohibitive favorites to win a championship.

But as a handicapper you know that 3-1 is a public price meant to attract action on both sides but unrealistic because the opponent has a better chance to win than the odds indicate.

So you take 3-1 on the underdog against your team for $100. If the underdog wins, you collect $300, knowing you made a good business decision because the odds were skewed for the purpose of book balancing, a.k.a. bookmaking.

However, if you lose the C-Note, it was worth the money to you because your favorite team won the title. Feeling good about losing this particular bet is the emotional hedge.

That’s the plan for Thursday’s ninth race at the old Spa.

Absent a potentially prescient opinion, media types such as myself root for the best story. And if the Lisa’s Bobby Trap story isn’t the equine story of the year, I don’t know what is.

For the 14 handful of fans who might not be aware, Lisa’s Booby Trap is a three-year-old daughter of a $1,500 stallion that was given away, subsequently sold on the if-come. The filly has one eye and a club foot that requires a hind shoe to be worn up front.

Did I mention she was named by her owner-trainer-groom-hotwalker for his wife--who died of cancer too young and promised her husband she’d return as a racehorse--and his favorite gentlemen’s club in Miami, located about a mile from Calder Race Course.

And did I mention that said owner-trainer Timothy Snyder at one time had about 20 horses but lost his horses and spent his savings paying for his wife’s treatment?

And that he turned down a cool half-million o buy her before she showed up in Saratoga and won the Loudonville Stakes by six lengths, her fourth career victory without defeat? She’s won those four races by an aggregate 42-¾ lengths.

Could any of us who labor at this have made this up?

Well, Lisa’s Booby Trap is my emotional hedge in the split Riskaverse overnight stakes, for which she has been installed the 5-2 early line favorite. Her story and how she fares will be featured on NBC’s “Dateline” Thursday night.

On the Equiform performance-figure scale, Lisa is faster than most, but only on a par with several major contenders. Let’s do a little more handicapping.

Pedigree as a predictive tool is very valuable, giving indications of potential ability to handle disparate conditions such as grass, slop or varying distances.

Given her bloodlines, Lisa is not particularly well bred to excel at anything. But that’s what makes her improbable story so cool in the first place.

Once a horse has established its form, it takes precedent over pedigree. Workouts are also a very useful predictor. Although there’s no guarantee that early morning form will translate to afternoon success, it can provide strong hints as to a preference for different surfaces.

In Lisa’s case, she was expected only to get a feel for the turf when Snyder sent the filly and Kent Desormeaux over to the Oklahoma turf course for a gallop. Snyder told Desormeaux that if the filly wanted to do more, however, let her do it. She did, and he did.

While the workout was officially recorded as a three furlong move in :35-flat around the dogs, Lisa was caught by her trainer in :47 for a half mile, and five-eighths in 1:00. Clearly, Lisa can handle the surface.

But her rivals are proven in turf competition: Khanchord Kid is a graded stakes winner, toughened by four tries in graded company. Sea Road was extremely sharp winning her last on this course, earning an excellent figure.

There’s Queen of the Creek, who despite being too keen early, handled older fillies on this course July 26. And who knows how good Marseria is? Two-for-two in Italy, she ships over here for the clever Team Valor outfit.

This potentially loaded race will be an excellent test for Lisa‘s Booby Trap. And she had better be all that if she is to remain undefeated. But to paraphrase Damon Runyon, at 5-2 that’s not the way to bet.

I’ll take Queen of the Creek at anything near her 5-1 early line odds. If Lisa’s Booby Trap keeps her undefeated record intact, I’ll be smiling as I rip my tickets.

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Monday, August 30, 2010

Time Has Come to Send Rachel Home

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY--

August 29, 2010

Dear Diary,

The time has come to formally introduce Rachel Alexandra to Curlin. There is nothing else to prove. All that there was to prove was proven last year.

That proof resulted in a Horse of the Year title. That honor is hers in perpetuity.

The time for guessing what‘s next, or what‘s wrong, is over. There are no more excuses.

In three of her five starts this year, the fire that burned so intently last year was absent. That fire now is more of a slow ember.

What remains is the memory of her singularly ferocious passion to run, the kind of passion that only the great ones have.

Her disappointing defeat in today’s Personal Ensign came over the same track 51 weeks after the greatest triumph of her life, the one that earned the sport‘s highest honor.

Rachel Alexandra can win more races, but she can’t be Rachel anymore. For the pleasure she gave her connections, and her handlers, and her fans, she deserves to be just horse now.

As if Rachel Alexandra could ever be just a horse.

Her people owe her, for taking them on the kind of ride that none of them had ever experienced before, the kind of journey that few owners and horsemen ever get to experience.

So was it the solid Personal Ensign pace she set, hounded all the way by a Grade 1 winner of six consecutive races?

Was it the distance that was her undoing, a sixteenth of a mile farther than she had ever raced before?

Was it the speed duel?

Does any of this matter?

Rachel Alexandra disposed of Life At Ten, opened a 3-length advantage with an eighth of a mile to go, the same place on the racetrack where she beat back Macho Again.

That Grade 1 winner was the third older male to seriously test her in last year’s Woodward. Her courage raised the rafters. The old Spa nearly shook itself apart.

When Persistently--brilliantly prepared by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey to win a race named for the best mare McGaughey ever trained--came to her, Rachel offered nothing.

There was nothing left to give; she had given her all. Not just yesterday but on all the other yesterdays that began at Oaklawn Park last February.

Rachel’s Horse of the Year fight was gone, just as it has been for the majority of her starts at 4. It happens.

Last year Rachel Alexandra gave everything she had and it was always, always enough. Now she can’t deliver all the time anymore.

What’s the point in watching the shell of a former unbeatable champion perform? For what she’s given the sport, and her fans, and her people, she deserves more respect than that.

A repeat of what we saw on the racetrack today would be unseemly.

Of course, Rachel Alexandra could be freshened. She could return to the scene of two of her most impressive triumphs and win a Ladies Classic.

Providing that Zenyatta runs in the Classic that’s held 24 hours later.

Lovers of the game, lovers of the filly, must ask themselves now is winning another race that important? Does it add to her legend? Would not doing so prevent her from becoming a first ballot Hall of Famer?

Rachel Alexandra the three-year-old absolutely loved to run. Even while being rated, she ran with a reckless abandon, willing her way to finish ahead of everybody else.

She’ll continue to run if that what’s asked of her. That’s what Thoroughbreds do. But does anyone really believe they will see the real Rachel again?

Watching the final sixteenth of a mile of the Personal Ensign was painful for fans who remember one of the greatest three-year-old filly campaigns over waged.

Rachel Alexandra’s plaque eventually will reside in the pantheon, in a place reserved only for the greatest of the greats.

In a race that was supposed to determine her future campaign, she looked very much like a Thoroughbred that tried her heart out, but less than an immortal, which is what she is.

What was missing in the Personal Ensign was fire and intensity. What was missing was the old Rachel. We will never see that one again. The time has come.

Rachel Alexandra has done more than enough. The slate reads (19) 13-5-0. The time has come to send her home.

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Saturday, August 28, 2010

That’s a Photo Finish!

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY--

August 28, 2010

Dear Diary,

No, that wasn’t Colonel John and Mambo in Seattle. Nor was it Forty Niner over Seeking the Gold, and definitely not Conquistador Cielo and Victory Gallop. It might not have been Jaipur and Ridan, but it was still pretty damn good.

But say this for the three-year-old class of 2010; they know how to put on a show, too. And they do like to keep you guessing, right to the finish of a Midsummer Derby.

And while the division’s leader, Lookin At Lucky, is in SoCal getting some R & R and hasn’t even had one workout since his Haskell victory a month ago, a new player emerged in Afleet Express.

Six months ago in Florida, as the Triple Crown horses were beginning to warm up for the show, Afleet Express was struggling to get out of his preliminary allowances condition.

Then, as the horsemen like to say, a light bulb went off when he got back home to Jimmy Jerkens’ shed on Long Island.

A week after the Preakness, Afleet Express ran a hole in the wind, beating a small but solid group of older sprinters, drawing off to win by nearly eight lengths in 1:21 3/5. That’s when Jerkens decided to go on a mission.

The trek to him to the Jersey Shore, when the son of the legendary Allen Jerkens introduced his horse to a second turn for the first time in the G3 Pegasus Stakes. After stalking the early leader, he took command in midstretch to win by nearly two.

After came his Travers prep, the G2 Jim Dandy, in which he was third despite having some difficulty negotiating the stretch turn before altering course outside, rallying boldly to pass more than half the field, settling for third.

But the real meaningful exercise didn’t occur until the race was over when, within another sixteenth of a mile, he galloped out passed the winner by several lengths.

“It wasn’t until I saw what he did in deep stretch that gave my confidence to start in the Travers,” Jerkens said earlier this week.

Javier Castellano, who’s been alternating with Johnny Velazquez for the Saratoga riding title all meet long was likely the nose difference between Afleet Express and Fly Down, who took a wide path into the Saratoga stretch--his preferred style is running outside of horses--as Castellano saved all the ground.

Clearly, he had a game plan as the field left the barrier, breaking his mount cleanly but instead of allowing him to drop back, he held his position, floating several riders wide into the stretch turn which is precisely where he dropped over to the fence.

Castellano saved ground throughout, stalking a realistic pace, stayed inside, asked him to engage shortly after entering the straight and got through cleanly to take the lead at the furlong pole.

At that point, Fly Down’s momentum was carrying him ever closer and the two really hooked up in earnest just passed the sixteenth pole. The momentum appeared to favor Nick Zito’s colt, but Afleet Express had his head down as the wire came up, winning the 141st Travers by the narrowest of margins.

Post race, it was a bit curious to learn that Jerkens didn’t think he would make it to the Breeders’ Cup with this three-year-old.

Jerkens trains the son of Afleet Alex and Expanse for the partnership of Gainesway Stable and Martin L. Cherry, so there may be a breeding shed somewhere in his near future. We shall see.

Haskell second Trappe Shot and Kentucky Derby winning Super Saver were, first and co-third favorites, respectively, were rank disappointments.

Third finisher First Dude, 6-¾ lengths behind the exacta finishers, is now stakes placed in five consecutive Grade 1s.

Outsider Afleet Again, one of three sons of Afleet Alex to race in the Travers, finished fourth. Afleet Express needed 2:03.28 to negotiate the distance and paid $16 to win.


Will Rachel Have the Answer?

Finally, the reigning Horse of the Year returns to Grade 1 competition, at an unfamiliar distance over a surface upon which she’s very much at home. The distance isn’t the only question mark.

We know that Rachel Alexandra doesn’t resemble the three-year-old filly that beat males thrice, including classics colts and elders, en route to the ultimate title via the most ambitious campaign waged by one of her age and sex in the modern era.

No, this model is more mare than filly, but with the same pretty face, undeniably feminine. But the ultimate question is: Is she the same filly?

Sunday’s Personal Ensign looks like the third segment of her season. In the first, the sense was that last year’s Woodward might have been her Dubai--an effort that extracts a toll. After those first two starts, the question was would there even be a third.

Then came her tour de force Fleur de Lis and a comprehensive, albeit puzzling, victory in the ersatz Lady’s Secret at Monmouth Park. Who did she beat? Shouldn’t she have been more impressive? Although it’s probably better than winning an eponymous Grade 1.

Not if Sunday’s race is the real start to her season. Not if she beats a mare the quality of Life At Ten who rolled into Saratoga on a six-race win streak and owns enough gas to take the fight to the champion.

And one more thing: Her success at the trip.

Last year, when Rachel-mania filled the air, even her supporters secretly wondered whether 10 furlongs was beyond her scope. Guess the Preakness in May at a sixteenth shorter just wasn’t good enough.

It was good enough, but it wasn’t proof enough. That’s what 5:56 PM on Sunday is all about. Ultimately, it’s about a Classic, one for the ladies, the other open to all comers.

Uncle Mo's Bandwagon

You always hear the stories. Just after a maiden of some promise wins at first asking, the steam says there’s one in the barn that’s even better. Of course, it never works out that way.

Well, comes Travers day and leading trainer Todd Pletcher had already saddled 13 juvenile winners en route to his seventh Saratoga training title. And in the fifth race, there he is, “Pletcher’s best two-year-old,” 2 $220,000 Indian Charlie colt called Uncle Mo.

Mike Repole, himself in a battle for leading owner with Gary and Mary West, named the horse not for a family member, as he so often does, but because the karma is good right now.

“It’s really from a sports term for momentum,” Repole explained, as in Uncle Mo’s in town. “I hooked up with Todd this year, things are going well now so I thought it was time.”

Well, how’s this for time: 1:09.21? How’s this for margin: 14-¼ lengths? And how about that all the pace was his, posting splits of :22.20 and :45.67 along the way, like breaking so many sticks.

Hyperbole? Report directly to the replay center and see for yourself.

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