Friday, July 31, 2009
Saratoga Diary, Day 3
SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, July 31, 2009--Momma always said: Dark Day, Don’t Play. Thing is, what do horses to watch mean on a day like today, unless some horse freaks and the world sees it, anyway. Even the Grade 2 Lake George is off the grass.
Tomorrow is forecasted to be sunny. And Vic Zast will take my seat tomorrow as I’m driving to the Jersey Shore where it’s also expected to be sunny. The bad news? Prospects for a sloppy Haskell Invitational. Here’s a glimpse at this weekend.
1:28 am: Triple Crown prep season notwithstanding--when would-be divisional leaders are hoping to run their way into a Kentucky Derby berth and beyond--there’s never been a weekend like this.
What separates the summer races from the spring is that the three-year-old class is a known quantity now. And, star power aside, there is an established pecking order among the division’s elite.
There is one facet of this weekend that’s quite similar to what happens on any given spring weekend: Never mind Louisville; been there. All roads now lead to Saratoga.
Providing they do not go off form or, heaven forbid, come out of their respective races not completely healthy, roads in Chester, West Virginia and Oceanport, New Jersey lead to upstate New York, where the home team will be in waiting.
The headlines say Rachel Alexandra is odds-on to beat the boys again in the Haskell Invitational. Her last three races include victories in the middle jewel of a crown and two wins over her peers, at the Haskell distance, by an aggregate 39 lengths.
“I’m not making any predictions, but I think we’ll give Rachel Alexandra a run for her money,” said Summer Bird’s trainer Tim Ice. Of course, trainer and horse made their bones in the Belmont.
We know where these Triple Crown campaigners will be on the weekend of August 28. But what about the Superfilly? Where will she be? Actually, she’ll already be here. What race she runs in is another matter. She has options.
Everyone wants to see her in the Travers, of course. But even if she wins the Haskell with energy in reserve, the Midsummer Derby might not be in her best interests. Besides, a victory on Sunday gives her wins over both Triple Crown race champions.
I won’t be holding my breath a Travers start for Rachel. Of course, that’s only one man’s opinion.
Rachel Alexandra is the most probable winner of the Haskell, but this race will be far from a walkover.
Second choice at 3-1 is Munnings and he holds the key to the entire race. Does Johnny Velazquez ask his colt to look the filly in the eye and, if he does, will he be able to stay with her long enough, setting the table for Summer Bird’s rally?
Rachel figures to stalk the expected pacesetter, who is as fast as the filly on the Equiform scale, and who also stepped out of his division by beating elders in the G2 Tom Fool at Belmont Park, convincing Todd Pletcher to take a shot here.
“He deserves to run in a race like this,” said Pletcher at the Haskell draw. Indeed, he does. His pedigree accents speed, however, so that’s the big question with Munnings.
Meanwhile, Summer Bird has trainer Tim Ice crowing a bit, such has been his preparation at Monmouth Park, two of the workouts coming over wet tracks, expected to be the surface conditions Sunday. Pity that, for all concerned.
If Munnings is able to soften Rachel sufficiently, it will leave Summer Bird in the catbird seat. And making only his sixth career start, the Belmont winner still owns considerable upside potential.
Saturday’s West Virginia Derby has drawn six entrants, five betting interests, and it boils down to the Kentucky Derby champion vs. the very talented Big Drama, the controlling speed who’s finished first in seven of nine lifetime starts.
And if the Soul Warrior half of the Asmussen entry winds up part of the pace, for the benefit of stablemate Sunday Sunrise, it should be noted that Big Drama is not run-off speed. You can take a semi-light hold of him and get his best effort.
Mine That Bird will be making his first start since his third-place finish in the Belmont Stakes, in which he made a premature run to the lead. Mike Smith, of course, replaces Calvin Borel.
Smith’s Preakness familiarity will help, and his freshness is likely to find the gelding closer to the leaders than usual, even if taken under restraint.
Weight will be a mitigating factor. Under the allowance conditions, Mine That Bird will be spotting Big Drama 11 pounds, 122 to 111.
That’s a significant spread, especially considering Mine That Bird beat Big Drama by 4-½ lengths in the Preakness at scale weights after the speedster was pressed throughout by the uber filly.
Still, despite prepping, Mine That Bird is likely to prevail. At the very least he’ll complete the exacta with Big Drama. Woolley says his gelding’s “dead-ready.”
Tactically, the most interesting race of the weekend is the Jim Dandy, the traditional nine furlong Travers prep, which drew a field of seven.
The race features four late developers that have improved this mid-season, namely Kensei, Charitable Man, Warrior’s Reward and, to a lesser degree, Convocation.
Kensei, yet another talented Jess Jackson-connected runner, came into his own with a breakthrough performance winning the Dwyer, a race in which Warrior’s Reward practically fell down at the start, finding himself daylight behind the field before making a very strong late run.
Kensei is there now. The question is whether he can replicate his last effort going a bit farther and around a second turn.
But Warrior’s Reward is on the come, his nightmare Dwyer experience moving him forward physically and mentally, according to trainer Ian Wilkes. With him, it’s the mental part that’s most important.
Charitable Man is threatening to break through himself and is being pointed to the Travers. Tomorrow he will need to begin living up to Kiaran McLaughlin’s high expectations. Obviously, he’s very talented. Whether he’s all that, however, remains to be seen.
Written by John Pricci
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