Monday, November 02, 2009

No Time for Patriots

(CHICAGO, IL – November 2, 2009) This will be the final TrackWords column you read before the one that begins with the sentence, “I told you so.”

In a few days, it’ll be Breeders’ Cup time at Santa Anita and horseplayers who enjoy competition at its peak will be laying their money on the line to prove that they can predict the future.

Profitable handicapping develops in real time when the forces of logic, experience and intuition come together mysteriously at the last available opportunity. Making the right bet is like cooking the spaghetti al dente. But I’m so certain of what’s cooking this weekend, why wait for Friday to feast?

Undoubtedly, in some races, the defection of several “sure things” has made the selection process easier. Rachel Alexandra and Sea the Stars would have been difficult to choose between had they met in the Classic. On the other hand, Zenyatta, now destined for Saturday’s feature, would have been odds-on in the Ladies Classic on Friday. Against males, including a pair of European corkers, she’s less certain.

Past is prologue on the racetrack and one of handicapping’s prime rules is to not bet on a horse to do something it’s not done before. But success at the windows lies more in reading a crystal ball than a history book. Notwithstanding clairvoyance, this year’s Breeders’ Cup will seem like an instant replay of last year’s.

European-based horses represent 38 of the 161 pre-entries, up from 31 when they won five of the 14 races. That means there’s three times the number of North American contestants. If all horses were equal in talent (they’re not), at least four Breeders’ Cup races should be taken by foreigners. In other words, last year’s results taught us more.

The trainers bringing horses over the pond to run believe that their investments are prudent. Group 2 runners in Europe can compete with Grade 1 winners on these shores. The best horses in the world, drug-free and cared for like pets on the farm, run in France, Britain, Ireland, Germany and Australia. Moreover, the synthetic surface appears kinder to horses that run on the turf primarily. Plus Pro-Ride enables runners not fixated on speed are trained to quicken in the stretch in races longer than sprints to excel.

One would think that flying more than 6000 miles, being displaced in quarantine, then asked to run in a different direction on a track that is oval and boring would cause a slippage in form, but that’s not apparent. It’s a good thing that the North American-based horses aren’t asked to face a similar challenge. If the Breeders’ Cup were in France or England, for example, we might lose 14 of 14 on their ground.

Thus, Coolmore’s Rip Van Winkle is the pre-race Classic favorite with British bookmakers. A miler on paper, he nevertheless won the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot – the same route taken by Raven’s Pass. Twice Over took Newmarket’s Emirates Airline Champion Stakes in a fashion that was easier than Timeform reported. For my money, Richard’s Kid will outperform Summer Bird, Quality Road, Tiago and Zenyatta for show money.

Conduit returns for the Breeders’ Cup Turf after victory last fall and a so-so season abroad, but appears poised to repeat with the san Gabriels as backdrop. Spanish Moon, also trained by Sir Michael Stoute, appears his rival. But if Dar Re Mi, fifth and two lengths behind Sea the Stars and just behind Conduit in the Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, runs in the Turf as expected, instead of the Fillies and Mare Turf, in which she’s cross-entered, it would be wrong to dismiss the 4-year-old miss. In fact, bet her.

Goldikova, another of 2008’s Breeders’ Cup winners, tries for a repeat in the Mile. Favored to win the Prix de la Forêt in Paris three weeks ago, she was caught at the wire causing blame to descend on her jockey Olivier Peslier. Goldikova will be challenged by Zacinto, second to Rip Van Winkle at Ascot, and Delegator, third in the same race. Bobby Frankel’s talking smack about Court Vision. Yet, Justenuffhumor, for Godolphin, is a wiser wager.

A European-based horse, the Group 1 winner Mastery, should win the Marathon, the least precious of all Breeders’ Cup races. Last year’s victor, Muhannak, will represent distant shores, but he isn’t the threat that two North Americans, Nite Light and Cloudy’s Knight, pose or, for that matter, fellow Euro, Man of Iron. A 3-year-old by Giant’s Causeway, Man of Iron is a half-sibling to Rags to Riches and Jazil, Belmont Stakes winners. So there’s no lack of stamina in his family.

With those four winners to build on, you can look to these races for more. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Lillie Langtry, upset by Termagant when odds-on in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, will get the hard ground that she wants in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Mastercraftsman, the likely favorite in the Dirt Mile against Girolamo and Midshipman (two non-committed starters), has been chasing Sea the Stars so often, he must think it’s impossible to win. Yet, he’s triumphed on synthetic and won at this distance before.

Can Viscount Nelson, second in the Champagne at Belmont, or Pounced, who ran second in Longchamp’s Grand Criterium, defeat Interactif? Probably not. Todd Pletcher’s Eskenderia, high on the trainer’s list and improving, will be tough. Lastly, there’s Fleeting Spirit. You could do worse than a deuce across the board on this speedster, but trainer Jeremy Noseda is death.

With the Breeders’ Cup returning to Kentucky next fall, 2009 might turn out to be the last time in a long while for European-raced horses to strike gold in almost every race they run in. The unique benefit that Pro-Ride provides enables them to compete on more even terms in all 14 contests than when eight races are run on conventional dirt. Now’s no time to be a patriot with your money.

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