(CHICAGO, IL – May 12, 2008) Who’s going to be the first to breed speed out of and durability into the thoroughbred? Horse racing is suddenly faced with a public backlash that threatens to reduce the sport to low tide. Death has taken over the headlines. Even a captivating Kentucky Derby victory by the unbeaten Big Brown couldn’t shroud the Eight Belles disaster and the screwed up situation that caused it.

By all rights, horse racing today should be in an enviable position. Big Brown conquered his competition with amazing alacrity in the one race that everyone watches. He’s now odds-on to abscond with a second precious Triple Crown jewel.

Attesting to his awesome superiority, not one horse that faced him in Louisville will be entered in the Preakness. Recapturetheglory, an unthreatening fifth in the Derby, dropped out of the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans this past weekend, leaving 10 other horses to fight for place.

Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, Jr., is giving his best to downplay the inevitability of his horse’s next conquest. He has stated more than once that he wishes that Big Brown had more time to relax than the fortnight between races. It is true that the rest of the Preakness field will be fresher. But like a sliver of Gouda, fresher doesn’t necessarily mean better. From all that they’ve shown us to date, the foes facing Big Brown won’t be ripe enough to beat him.

Most likely, professional handicappers will drum up a specious case for a swift, silver-plated, Queen’s Plate-intended Canadian-bred named Harlem Rocker. Owned by the Stronach Stables and trained by Todd Pletcher, Harlem Rocker is immaculate in three lifetime starts, a steak that began on St. Valentine’s Day. In addition to his flawless past performances, he has a quick turn of foot, as evidenced by his 1:34.50 mile in the Withers Stakes. Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine that Harlem Rocker will win a Classic after only three starts in the manner that Big Brown did.

The bettors may offer a modicum of support for Behindatthebar, a late-developing son of Macho Uno that is also trained by Pletcher. Behindatthebar was acquired by the Padua Stable with the Kentucky Derby in mind, but even an Eclipse Award-winning trainer couldn’t prep him sufficiently in time. Soon after the colt won the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, Pletcher turned his attention to Pimlico. Regardless, all three of Behindatthebar’s victories have come on a surface that’s numb-er than dirt. This does not bode well for his chances in Baltimore. In fact, it’s not certain he’ll run.

Belmont Park is where Big Brown will find his most strenuous challenge. Several of the Kentucky Derby also-rans including Denis of Cork, Colonel John and Court Vision are likely to return for another chance at him. But, lo and behold, it’s a rising star from the Land of the Rising Sun that they all have to worry about.

Casino Drive, a maiden race winner at Japan’s Kyoto Racecourse in February, took the Peter Pan Stakes on Saturday in a manner that indicates he’s a threat to a Big Brown Triple Crown sweep. “He’s a phenomenal talent,” Casino Drive’s rider Kent Desormeaux said. “We’ve got our hands full with this one,” the jock admitted, comparing the two unbeaten colts, both of which he has ridden.

Casino Drive’s dam, Better Than Honour, gave the world Jazil and Rags to Riches, the Belmont Stake’s last two champions. In only his third lifetime start, Casino Drive may become her third offspring in a row to upset it. Who rides is another issue apart from the possibility. Fingers are crossed that Desormeaux is forced on Big Brown, instead of Casino Drive, because of a chance at posterity.

Six of the last 10 Belmont Stakes featured horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Nevertheless, there hasn’t been a Triple Crown champion in 29 years. The closeness of the three Classics for 3-year-olds is one of the reasons for the short lives of racehorses. Just two of the six dual Derby-Preakness winners raced past the age of three, and one of those – Funny Cide – was a gelding.

It’s almost a certainty that Big Brown will retire before the year is up, maybe even before the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His value at stud will never be higher than if he became an undefeated Triple Crown winner. Breeding, in fact, suggests that he’d only be pressing his luck to keep going.

The dangers inherent to the modern game will remain high for as long as the breeders are given the financial incentive to breed horses for the big events without the slightest concern for longevity. Merely switching the surface of the racetracks won’t be enough to stem the rate of tragedy. Maybe, if the industry institutes an amalgam of changes, a greater degree of safety will return to the sport in 10 years or 20. But doubts remain that there’s a structure, or a leader, that can coalesce the industry’s diverse parts to begin an initiative.

In the meantime, there are two more nationally-televised events that pose the direst of possibilities. The field being assembled for the Preakness creates a most fortunate circumstance for Big Brown to cruise safely to victory. But remember, Eight Belles broke down while relaxing. Anything can happen, given the presence of frailty.