Horse Race Insider Forum

Topic of the Week #3 - A Sport or Gambling Vehicle?

2008-09-03T10:11:22-05:00

How Would You Promote Racing, As a Sport or Gambling Vehicle?

Topic of the Week #2 - thoroughbred bloggers

2008-08-24T16:24:36-05:00

Can Thoroughbred Bloggers Help Turn Racing’s Fortunes Around?

Topic of the Week #1

2008-08-19T16:31:50-05:00

Who Do You Think Will Win the Travers and Why?

3 day Auction AUGUST 23 - 25 Bay Meadows Race Course

2008-08-11T13:20:07-05:00

Hello, I’m just posting this thread to inform Everyone of an Auction that will be taking place on the 23rd, 24th, and 25th of August.
It will take place at Bay Meadows Race Course. Everything will be sold!!! from Memorabilia to Seating, and more!

for more info please Visit http://www.greatamerican.com

Saratoga surface & profile: any insights on probable conditions TODAY?

2008-07-25T11:17:15-05:00

I’m playing the Showdown, so don’t have the luxury of initially watching a couple of races.

I gather Saratoga will get close to 8 hours of nice sunshine after the last rainfall.

I would guess that ‘today’ will not be tiring anymore & that ‘maybe’ the rail will be ok again.

As far as Turf, esp. since rains are due back before the card ends tomorrow, i would guess Turf will remain totally off until next week(I’d even guess longer than that-- that re-scheduled hurdle may well have to be re-re-scheduled).

It would be nice if NYRA followed CDI lead re posted track maintenance daily reports.

Any comments, even insults(oops, wrong board..LOL) will be highly appreciated.

TIA & GL today.

PS for the inside not having been so great yesterday-- some horses did make moves over it...Are they real gems to watch or was the inside not ‘that bad’?

ThoroughbredZones Kentucky Derby 12

2008-04-18T10:59:29-05:00

Well The Top 5 anyway...This is the most im permitted to post

1) 1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. His first work since the Florida derby was this past Saturday where he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.53. All went well with the work according to reports. He is scheduled for two more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull Saturday at Gulfstream Park. There are still the lingering questions about his feet. And that will remain a concern right up until post time of the Kentucky Derby. The work was a promising sign that he is doing well. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. In his work on Saturday he did not do this, so that is a plus. He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. Winning the Derby is not a cakewalk.

2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.

3)(9) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.

4)8) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.

5)(-) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby

http://www.ThoroughbredZone.com

second leg of the triple crown

2007-05-16T13:36:32-05:00

well here it is,wed the post to be drawn today for the big race of the weekend. After watching the derby, the same thing happened as the breeeders cup the rail was the place to be at churchill. Is hard spun going to give it up or is somebody else going to get out and have S.S. come from the back. having Street win this race sets up N.Y. again. Last year having barbaro at churchill and then
putting my big bucks on him (20 to win.) only to watching him break thur the gate,I told the person i was with quick run to the window and bet the other horses because he wont win. In hindsight we all know what happened. got shut out of the bet.
This year could be the same, who likes who? How bout some picks here, where is the value? I like betting supers in these races
but maybe the tri or ex. mite be the way to go. Any thoughts?

getting value

2007-07-04T16:45:48-05:00

Hi folks. I’ve been picking on paper for years but actually going to wager real $ for the first time. I’m going to Belmont this weekend to see how I do.
I’m not a rookie in handicapping but I definitely havent’ studied exactly what to bet in terms of choosing one horse on top of another. I want to understand how to spot value in a horse and how to bet accordingly. The ‘how to bet’ part in partculcar is what I need to understand. I’m a bit chicken in doing exotic bets....but I can possibly profit if I’m doing only w-p-s and across the board bets on a full day of racing? Would like to know your thoughts.

Dan

Was the Blue Grass a Toss?????

2008-04-14T07:51:39-05:00

I would think that Pyro at least has the numbers to run back to. Unless we don’t know something. I intend to strike a line through this one.

Ellis pick 4, tough beat

2007-07-15T22:43:10-05:00

Played the new pick four yesterday, saturday July 14, for the first time.

Singled the 1 horse in the third leg on main ticket. Had it alive to the all in the last.

While I was extremely unfortunate in having the Pletcher put up, can’t tell you how happy i was that the 5 didn’t win the finale!

On another note, what happened at Ellis today that cancelled the racing?

(if smoeone is around and reading this)

Oh yeah, and thanks guys for this new site, hopefully we can get this joint hopping!