Thursday, May 15, 2008

This Time, It’ll Be an Inside Job

Five of the last six odds-on favorites in the Preakness have accounted for bags and bags of paper debris at old Pimlico. Their names are Linkage, Swale, Easy Goer, Fusaichi Pegasus and the unfortunate Barbaro. It's likely that some of the tickets on Barbaro wound up in memory books instead of the scrap heap.

Odds-on choices don't always lose at Pimlico--Smarty Jones was 7-10 when he won--and Big Brown isn't expected to join Linkage and the others when they run the Preakness, the middle jewel in the Triple Crown, for the 133rd time time on Saturday. The easy-does-it Kentucky Derby winner is running off two weeks' rest for the first time in his brief career, but there is nothing in the stars over Baltimore that presages a meltdown. "If he gets a clean trip, I don't know of anyone who can run with him," said Michael Iavarone, one of the colt's owners.

Why 12 horses have entered against the undefeated Big Brown is one of the mysteries of our time. Reade Baker, the trainer of Kentucky Bear, talks a good game, but the reality is that if Pimlico doesn't turn into Rout City, a grand jury may be impaneled. Five of the horses in the field have beaten only maidens (their combined record: five wins in 29 starts). Only three of Big Brown's rivals have won graded stakes. Gayego, the Arkansas Derby winner, came into the race at the 11th hour, but he's hardly window dressing after a 17th-place finish in the Derby.

In fact, two respected linemakers, Pimlico's Frank Carulli and the Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker, can't agree on whom the second choice will be. Carulli has Gayego at 8-1. Gayego is listed third on Watchmaker's line, his number 12-1 after Behindatthebar, 10-1. Carulli listed Big Brown at 1-2, while Watchmaker's number is 3-5.

A second choice hasn't been 11-1 or more in the Preakness since Dark Star, the Derby winner, and Royal Bay Gem both went off at that number in 1953. Native Dancer won at 1-5.

After breaking from the far outside in both his Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby wins, Big Brown drew the middle, No. 7, in the Preakness. In a refreshing departure from the made-for-TV falderal in Kentucky, Pimlico assigned post positions with an old-fashioned blind draw.

"If nobody wants to go with him," Iavarone said, "he can bounce out of there and take the race on his own on the lead. It gives (jockey Kent Desormeaux) a lot of options."

Gayego, on the other hand, drew next to the outside for the second Triple Crown race. He was 19th of 20 at Churchill, and he's 12th of 13 at Pimlico.

"What can you do?" said his trainer, Paulo Lobo. "It's better than 19."

Kentucky Bear, who is 15-1 on the Pimlico line, is typical of the underachievers running. This is only his fourth race, after a maiden win, a throw-out in the Fountain of Youth and a late-running third in the Blue Grass. Kentucky Bear bled in the Fountain of Youth, grabbed a quarter and failed to change leads in the stretch. He's yet to change leads in any of his races. Alydar didn't change leads, either, but there's the suspicion that Kentucky Bear isn't the next Alydar.

Kentucky Bear's trainer, Reade Baker, gritted his teeth and said: "Big Brown beat all the horses at Churchill Downs, but he didn't beat us."

Kentucky Bear is one of six Preakness starters coming into the race off a start over synthetic footing. The best synthetic-to-dirt finisher in the Derby was Colonel John, who was a well-beaten sixth. As though Big Brown needs an extra reason to demolish this field.

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