Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Curses, It’s the Santa Anita Derby

Los Angeles, March 31, 2009--The worst thing that can happen to a trainer who wants to win the Kentucky Derby is to win the Santa Anita Derby, a month before. Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse, two of the finest 3-year-olds in the land, will be trying their hardest to win the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4, but that strategy is deeply flawed, Kentucky-wise. Both of these colts would be better off finishing second, or worse, if they want to have a prayer at Churchill Downs.

Now don't get me wrong, horses prepping for Louisville by running in the Santa Anita Derby have won the Kentucky Derby, 15 in all and most recently Giacomo in 2005. By running fourth, beaten by two lengths, at Santa Anita, Giacomo was perfectly positioned to win in Kentucky, though few horseplayers knew it and most of us let him get off at 50-1, second-longest price ever for a Derby winner. It was Jeff Mullins, the trainer of Buzzards Bay, who was really in trouble at Churchill. Some said that the No. 20 post in the Derby was what got Buzzards Bay beat, but that wasn't it at all; Mullins had committed the unpardonable sin of winning the Santa Anita Derby.

Last year, Colonel John was first at Santa Anita and sixth in Kentucky, as he became the 19th straight Santa Anita Derby winner to either not show up or not run fast enough at Churchill. Santa Anita may have added another wrinkle to the curse when it tore up the dirt track and installed a synthetic surface for the 2008 meet, but that argument, adjusting from Pro-Ride to old-fashioned loam at Churchill, didn't fit Colonel John. Not objecting to the dirt course at Saratoga, he won the Travers later in the year, reducing to moot the surface debate.

The last horse to register a Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby double was Sunday Silence in 1989. The next year, Mister Frisky, the Santa Anita Derby winner, went to Kentucky with 16 straight wins, then finished eighth as the favorite. Of course, one failure does not a curse make, but this was an awfully foreboding start. Here, in living black and white, is the list since then:

Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby double
Year	Santa Anita Derby Winner	Kentucky Derby Finish	Kentucky Derby Odds
1991	Dinard	Didn't run
1992	A.P. Indy	Scratched
1993	Personal Hope	4th	8-1
1994	Brocco	4th	4-1
1995	Larry the Legend	Didn't run
1996	Cavonnier	2nd	5-1
1997	Free House	3rd	10-1
1998	Indian Charlie	3rd	5-2
1999	General Challenge	11th	9-2
2000	The Deputy	14th	9-2
2001	Point Given	5th	9-5
2002	Came Home	6th	8-1
2003	Buddy Gil	6th	7-1
2004	Castledale	14th	21-1
2005	Buzzards Bay	5th	40-1
2006	Brother Derek	4th	7-1
2007	Tiago	7th	14-1
2008	Colonel John	6th	9-2

All right, some of these Santa Anita Derby winners were cheese champions. Like Mister Frisky, some of them not only were beaten in Kentucky, but they also never won another race. Not to be confused with stiffdom, however, were A.P. Indy, who won Horse of the Year; Point Given, one of the wuda-cuda-shuda Triple Crown conversation pieces after his Preakness and Belmont wins; and Free House and General Challenge, who between them earned $6 million. A.P. Indy's absence from the Derby was an 11th-hour heartbreaker. His trainer, Neil Drysdale, scratched him the morning of the race when a hoof injury couldn't be repaired. The colt's owner, Tomonori Tsurumaki, was on a Kentucky-bound plane from Japan, and couldn't be re-routed in time.

Of the 16 Santa Anita Derby winners who made it to the gate at Churchill Downs, half of them were ridden by Gary Stevens. Now Stevens has won the Kentucky Derby three times, and only one of them, the filly Winning Colors, was pre-curse. She swept the Santa Anita and Kentucky races the year before Sunday Silence. Curse-wise, Stevens was in on a pass when he won the Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch, who didn't run in the Santa Anita Derby, and his other Kentucky winner, Silver Charm, barely dodged the hoodoo when he lost in a picture with Free House at Santa Anita. In fact, Free House beat Silver Charm twice that winter at Santa Anita, and went into the Kentucky Derby with a jinx that was on steroids.

Pioneerof the Nile, co-star of the 72nd Santa Anita Derby, is trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert, who's won the Santa Anita Derby four times, by now knows how it works. Cavonnier was inches short of Grindstone in Kentucky; previously unbeaten Indian Charlie, who didn't fire at Churchill, never ran again; General Challenge was the victim of a rough trip; and star-crossed Point Given was done in while in pursuit of suicidal early fractions. Baffert's finest two minutes in Kentucky came from Silver Charm and Real Quiet, after both were second at Santa Anita, and War Emblem, who changed hands, from Frank Springer's barn to Baffert's, so late in the game that the Santa Anita heebie-jeebies were behind him. All Baffert and his jockey, Garrett Gomez, can do with Pioneerof the Nile is shoot for the big money at Santa Anita, and then let the chips fall where they may in Kentucky. They seem like the right pair of horsemen to take on a curse, full bore.

Comments (0)