In an effort to better serve HRI readers, and not limit Cary Fotias to the California circuit exclusively, Cary will be posting his value plays at whatever track he deems suitable. So be sure to check out his “No Limit Handicapping” column daily.
Cary has been posting his selections at HorseRaceInsider on a semi-weekly basis since 2007. Author and professional horseplayer, a look at his running totals are simply among the most unusual ever for a handicapper posting selections in advance in the public arena.
His cumulative running totals of (44) 15-3-5 as of July, 2009--for a total dollar return of $204.70 based on win selections only--yielded an otherworldly 231% return on investment. This is not the kind of impossible claim you often will see from other handicappers.
Cary's selections and results are easily verifiable, archived on the HRI site for your verification. HRI is very proud to have Cary Fotias as its handicapper in residence.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
There’s Value at Belmont Park
In today's 7th at Belmont Park, Ricoriatoa (5-1), is coming off a new pace top and is working well for Paulo Lobo, using go-to rider Richard Migliore.
July 12 Results: (1) 1-0-0 Current Running Totals: (43) 15-2-5 Total Dollar Return: $204.70 [win selections only]
Written by Cary Fotias
EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.
Sunday, July 05, 2009
Prepping for the Summit of Speed
Race 8 at Calder:
# 3 Caixa Eletronica 6-1
Sprinter is coming off a cyclical pace top, is a 7 furlong specialist and likes the Calder surface.
July 5 Results: (1) 1-0-0 Current Running Totals: (42) 14-2-5 Total Dollar Return: $193.50 [win selections only]
Written by Cary Fotias
EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.
Monday, June 29, 2009
If Tracks Had Access …
If tracks had access to the discount window or, better yet, could borrow at the Fed Funds rate, maybe they would finally lower takeout rates. Then, when they saw the dramatic increase in handle that would inevitably result, they might, and I repeat MIGHT, realize that competitive pricing will produce not only more handle but also more profits for the industry at large.
As I’ve said at countless conferences and on blogs, panels, radio, television, symposiums, tele-clinics, webcasts, letters to the editor, think-tanks (sorry I don’t Twitter yet) thoroughbred racing will not prosper until takeout rates are significantly reduced.
I can think of no better example to illustrate the effect of takeout rates (commissions) than the biggest casino on the planet, the New York Stock Exchange. When I started trading stocks in the 60’s (thanks to a custodial account my parents opened for me) all trades had a fixed commission based on the price of the stock. Average daily volume at the time was around 6 million shares a day.
Everything changed on May Day 1975. Fixed commissions were banned. The old line brokerage firms, fearing competition amongst themselves and from the nascent discount brokers, were quite alarmed. The old boy network was under attack. But look what happened over the next 30 years. Sure, commissions were slashed 90% or more for both retail and institutional investors but, despite their original fears of market-driven pricing, the brokerage houses began to make more money than they ever had before. Although their “takeout rate” had been dramatically reduced, trading volume increased exponentially. Two billion or more shares a day are now traded routinely.
In August of 2000, another new wrinkle appeared when decimal pricing replaced fractional pricing. Does breakage ring a bell? In this age of computerization there is no reason for ADW’s (account deposit wagering companies) not to pay the real price right to the penny.
In a country that has always believed in free markets, it is curious that racing has been so mismanaged by politicians and regulators that it has never had the chance to find where supply meets demand to maximize profits.
Last Sunday, I gave out a couple plays on my blog at Horseraceinsider.com
Sunday, June 21, 2009
West Coast Early Double
NO LIMIT Plays -- 21 June
Hollywood Race 01 -- BLAZING SPIRIT is off a New Pace Top (NPT) and is picked by no one in the DRF selector box. He's a tad slower on finals than some in here, but should offer excellent value.
Hollywood Race 02 -- ONE SHOT is also off an NPT and is 8/1 on the Morning Line. Trainer A C Avila's runners have been firing all meet long.
In addition to WIN bets, play doubles Blazing Spirit/ALL and ALL/ ONE SHOT as anything could win in these wide open affairs.
June 21 Results: (2) 2-0-0 Current Running Totals: (41) 13-2-5 Total Dollar Return: $186.50 [win selections only]
Both of my selections won. Blazing Spirit returned $13.40 and One Shot paid $34.80. I knew that by giving out doubles my payoff would get hit, especially if both horses won. What I forgot, is that the early double pools in California are usually only half of their New York counterparts. The $2 parlay for this double was $233. Usually, you get a premium on the parlay versus the double since you are only paying “the vig” once. This double should have come back around $260. Instead, it came back $168.60.
I later looked up the chart for the second race and saw that only $66,820 had been bet in the double pool. I then made an assumption that 50 people had followed my double plays each way for $2 for an investment of $32. Without that extra $1600 in the pool ($200 of which was on the winning combination), the double would have returned $241.60
In addition to high takeout rates, another major problem confronting horseplayers (as illustrated by the double payoffs above), is the lack of liquidity in most pools. Outside of the major California and New York tracks, you never really know what win price (or double or exacta payoff) you are getting on a horse. If you are value player as I am, even tracks like Calder, Churchill, and Monmouth become difficult to play because you are often clueless as to what the final odds will be. As for the smaller tracks, estimating what price you are going to get becomes even more problematic.
Wednesday, at Monmouth I made a horse (Decue) 7-5 on my odds line. As the horses began loading into the gate, he was 2-1 on the tote board. Decue was on top by seven after a quarter of a mile, and I saw his odds drop to 6-5. I turned to my office manager. George, and said “I don’t even want him at this price”. He maintained his seven length advantage to the wire. I went to get a cup of coffee and, when I later checked the official payoff, I was “rewarded” to the tune of $3.80
This was at Monmouth Park, folks. It wasn’t Saratoga on a weekend, but it wasn’t Arapahoe Park either. How can a value player intelligently play this game when subjected to such volatile price fluctuations? Mind you, I’m not saying the price drop was the result of past posting or any other suspicious activity. I have been a vocal proponent of cutting off late betting a minute before post time as Churchill Downs did for a while after the Breeders’ Cup Pick-6 scandal. This measure would alleviate the concern that people are betting when the races are in progress and would strengthen the perception that the game is on the up-and-up.
However, cutting off betting a minute to post would not solve the main issue for value players. Huge swings in the odds would still occur under this scenario, but a least they would occur before the gates open. It is encouraging to see that Betfair, the biggest betting exchange company in the world, recently purchased TVG (Television Games Network). Hopefully, over time, they can persuade the powers that be that person-to-person win betting (with low commissions) could revitalize the industry.
In the meantime, there are steps that can be taken to mitigate the current “liquidity crisis”. As E F Schumacher said “small is beautiful”, or in more common parlance, “less is more”. This industry needs less racing and less gimmicks. People will bet the same amount of money whether 10 tracks or 40 tracks are running on any given Saturday. I’m not saying to do away with trifectas and superfectas (I play them all the time) but rather not to offer so many of them on every card. By concentrating money in fewer pools, liquidity will increase significantly. More big players will feel comfortable getting involved, which will lead to even more money being bet, and odds swings will decrease accordingly.
If we horseplayers have enough passion to make our voices heard, we CAN make a difference. That’s why I encourage all if you to join the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) if you haven’t already. There is a link to the HANA homepage on the Equiform web site. I am on the HANA advisory board as I feel HANA has no other agenda except to improve our collective well being. I think the HANA “buycott” or “pool party” is a great way to enhance our bargaining power. Check it out - I think the only way we will be heard is to employ strategies that impact the tracks’ bottom lines.
Written by Cary Fotias
EQUIFORM.com Provides the Most Accurate Thoroughbred Handicapping Data.
