Gems in a Rough Game
In response to several email suggestions, the following is a reproduction of our Tote Busters analysis of the Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park, Saturday, March 25. For more information on this and other handicapping services, proceed to https://www.JohnPricci.com
GULFSTREAM PARK LATE PICK 4 MARCH 25, 2017
RACE 10: Maiden Special Weight 3YOs 7-1/2 Furlongs (TURF)
1 – ****SECRETARY AT WAR (2-1) Pricci Energy Ability Rating: 81
From stable mail: Alternated on the pace through from post 12 showing improved speed after apparent greenness in post parade. Benefits from the move inside and switch to Jose Ortiz. Jerkens profitable 29% going long to shorter.
2 – **KEEPING IT QUIET (9-2) PR: First-Time-Starter
Bred both sides for grass and dam has produced two turf winners from four winning runners, including a stakes winner. But Todd not known for turf-debut types (11%). Working steadily, but unspectacularly.
3 – **CRUZ DIEZ (15-1) PR: 71 (dirt)
Trailed throughout strongly run dirt debut going a mile. Grandson of Smart Strike should like turf -- of dam’s six winners from 11 starters, including two SWs, none won on turf. Cold barn adding blinkers.
4 – ***SILVER DEFENSE (4-1) PR: 78
Raced well in both turf starts, showing improvement second time and earning competitive Pricci Rating. Wismer barn had upset winner last Saturday and is profitable in all relevant categories. However, Bravo opts for another here but Lanerie switch does suit runner’s style.
5 – *OMENED BY (15-1) PR: 48
Set pressured pace throughout [turf] debut then tired badly in deep stretch at 67-1. Rider switch to Trujillo here suits, but barn is icy 1-for-94 at this meet through Monday’s racing.
6 – ****STORM TEAM (3-1) PR: 77 (5F)
Earned highly competitive figure while placing second start albeit in 5F sprint—winner repeated on Thursday here--and Goldberg a worthy 24% effective with beaten favorites. Top side of pedigree won’t mind the stretch-out. Paco sticks with this strong contender.
7 - **HERECOMESYOURMAN (10-1) PR: 67
Showed improved speed in recent turf debut at today’s trip despite racing wide throughout. Barn got off the duck here recently and Bravo chooses this one. Returns with good spacing and blinkers off; intriguing price shot at early line odds or greater.
8 – *CHESAPEAKE CITY (15-1) PR: [NA]
Trailed throughout dirt-sprint debut and was beaten off after having excuse-filled break. Has some turf pedigree and mare’s lone winner from two starters won on grass. Capable outfit names Prado but draw did him no favors.
RACE 11: ANY LIMIT STAKES 3YO Fillies 6 Furlongs
1 – **FAITH N HOPE (6-1) PR: 83
Likes to stalk from close range—the likely the tack here assuming sharp break. Stayed fairly well last out after making rally into the lane, earning a competitive PR. Loses Saez but is acquainted with Olivero.
2 – **FASHION RUNAWAY (12-1) PR: 77
Chased the pace and tired going 7F following lifetime best score previously at hybrid 6-1/2F, both at Tampa. Had useful blowout over surface for GP debut but meeting faster/tougher on speedier ground.
3 - ***CURSOR (6-5) PR: 81
Earned highly competitive PR when second in debut at this trip before breaking maiden stretching out, then was even finish in G3 Tempted going 8F. Turn-back makes sense in 3YO de but, as does switch to Jose Ortiz.
4 – ***TRUGE (9-2) PR: 83
Might have been best when beaten a neck by undefeated Who’s the Lady last out at today’s trip with six-wide rally into the lane in second fast-track start. Breeze of 5F 3rd fastest of 23 peers week of 4/24, but loses Ortiz to early line, class tested fave.
5 – ***WHO’S THE LADY (7-2) PR: 84
Three for three lifetime including two at GP, winning from both on and just-off the pace. Versatile filly is well-spotted by O’Connell in this listed event and goes first time for Paco. May offer surprising value; note.
6 - COLORINCOLONEL (30-1) PR:
Filly is 1-for-17 lifetime and barn is 1-for-94 at this meet—and that win was for maiden claiming $12,500.
7 - *MIA (6-1) PR: 68
Has shown high early speed going shorter on occasion but lone win came going 4-1/2F here in June. Generally fails to stay, figures to be chasing wide throughout but 1:01 1 BG was 6th fastest of 58 peers week of 3/19.
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RACE 12: G3 SKIP AWAY 4 & UP 1-1/8 Miles
1 – HY RIVERSIDE (10-1) Pricci Energy Rating: 88
Game winner of the Sunshine Millions Classic at today’s route then subsequently bounced, chased a strong pace in rapidly run G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, then prepped by racing needlessly wide in backstretch run of G3 Hooper mile. Stretch-out and pole a big help, but loses Ortiz to Zulu.
2 – FLASHY JEWEL (3-1) PR: 93
Was impressively game taking shorter-stretch 1-1/16-mile Old Hickory after being pressed throughout in his latest. Kenneally is 18% effective with repeaters and this one looms controlling--and possibly lone—speed. Has inside position and stretches to distance at which he’s 1-for-1. Takes catching beneath Bravo.
3 – FEAR THE COWBOY (4-1) PR: 94
Was scratched from recent local stakes awaiting this favorable spot. Last was first rate placing at today’s distance, he likes the game, given (19) 6-5-1 lifetime slate, and a surface lover, too: (4) 2-1-1. Goes very well for Rios; major player and potential value for barn that’s otherworldly 34% effective with shippers.