Derby’s Points System Revisited

LOS ANGELES, May 11, 2013--The 2013 Kentucky Derby is now in the record books and its new eligibility system awaits critiquing and tweaking. Apparently, however, the new rules had little effect on a trainer who was completely focused on a single entrant and probably picked the same spots he would have under the old rules in his attempt to annex the first leg of the Triple Crown.

The best horse won, and the manner in which it was prepared may have re-established the one-horse-one-trainer tradition for Derby Trail aspirants. With tremendous patience and mastery of his craft, Claude McGaughey made a convincing case for concentrated conditioner care; at least for those paying premium prices for premier bloodlines.

In contrast, Todd Pletcher displayed equally masterful management expertise in making multiple TC hopefuls eligible for multiple clients. Yet even with five starters (of which four were widely considered strong contenders), there was no trip for the trainer to the winner’s circle. Perhaps one his owners must be wondering whether full focus on his particular colt would have made a difference; then there are alternatives.

Joel Rosario eliminated all doubts that he is the nation’s top jockey. This year’s game of musical mounts returned Rosario to Orb but appeared to weaken Pletcher’s hand. Recently injured John Velazquez retained his choice of Pletcher mounts on Verrazano.

But Javier Castellano took himself off Revolutionary after having guided that colt to successive victories. There was no Garrett Gomez for Palace Malice because he already took a commitment aboard Vyjack. Joe Bravo opted off Charming Kitten for Black Onyx, who suffered a minor injury and was an early scratch.

It appeared that Orb was a selection more among those who could appreciate the effectiveness of his lengthy preparation at Churchill Downs; something that did not leap off the past performance charts but was noted by several workout observers. Orb’s potential was also camouflaged somewhat by many speed figure makers who thought his Florida Derby was on the slow side.

The sloppy track, the final piece of the handicapping puzzle, left many of us scratching our heads right up until post time.

Finally, did the new rules live up to expectations with respect to the outcome? Yes and no.

TV and Internet Must Provide Better Racing Coverage

LOS ANGELES, April 30, 2013—The Pull The Pocket blogger launched a true thought-provoker last week.

The piece, "Television is Not Trending Racing's Way" observed in part that "Churchill, the Jockey Club and others have been paying to have racing televised, with the hopes it catches on with the masses that matter - a new viewing audience. So far, it looks like things are not going overly well."

After observing that viewership of the preps had not increased appreciably, he asked "What strategy can be used to up viewership and get people excited to watch racing as a live event?"

The underlying problem is that while such telecasts currently acquaint the new viewer with the actual running of a live race, along with the pre and post-race pageantry, they provide very little of what gets most of us excited about watching a race -- the handicapping and wagering strategizing that precede it.

Until novices get to see the variety of ways players use past performance data to make selections and construct wagers -- and then connect that with what happens both in the pools and on the track -- it’s hard to appreciate all the rewarding challenges the game can generate.

Additional TV money should provide extended exposure as to how past performance data products are used to support informed betting decisions prior to a live race broadcast.

You Feelin’ Lucky, Punter?

If the Pimlico Special-Preakness double means anything, which it does, it appears that Orb is likely to be 4-5 or possibly less at post time.

Orb looms the most probable winner, whether you believe there's a lot more in the tank, which I believe there is, or his last was indeed a very big forward move, he's coming back in two weeks, and has drawn the rail.

All his success in two turn races this year have come racing outside of horses. The reason for the short price, the horse notwithstanding, are the popular connections, the talents of Joel Rosario and the public wants it.

(Remember, the public wanted better background checks, too).

But Orb is a very good horse, and good horses show up on the day. When they don't, they still win. Orb definitely should win, but that's not the way to bet, as the saying goes.

Many Small Steps, One Giant Leap

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y., May 11, 2013 – Nine three-year-olds went into the Grade 2 Peter Pan on a sloppy Belmont Park surface looking for an identity and one emerged, looking very much like a horse that might have a future among the three-year-olds of 2013.

Following a stutter-step start, Freedom Child splashed to a clear lead in the opening furlong and improved his position, winning the one turn nine furlongs by 13 ¼ widening lengths, stopping the timer in a worthy 1:49.09 and vaulting himself into the June 8 Belmont Stakes.

There is Orb and there is everyone else in the Preakness

Orb stands so far above the rest of the 3-year-old class that it's difficult to single out which of his eight rivals represents the biggest threat to him in the Preakness. All Orb has to do is run his race without experiencing horrendous racing luck to head to Belmont Park with a big shot to end the Triple Crown draught.

Calder-Gulfstream conflict turns ugly early

Two months before Calder and Gulfstream are scheduled to begin racing head-to-head, the first shots were fired in what could turn into a scorched earth conflict with no winners. South Florida horsemen withdrew permission to export Calder's simulcast signal, which in only four days cost the track millions in revenue. It also cost horsemen a 20% purse reduction. A temporary settlement on May 9 kicked the can down the road. Meanwhile, Gulfstream got permission to open on June 25, which qualifies it as a year-round simulcast host. Calder, of course, is appealing.

Which Derby Runner Looms as Orb’s Biggest Threat?

There’s two things we need, or would like to see, for Saturday’s Preakness. One is Orb winning, thus keeping the Triple Crown alive. Two, a dry, fast track.

If the latter holds true, then the former might have trouble.

Twenty horses go to Kentucky and maybe five or six travel to Baltimore. This year is no different with Orb, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents committing to Black-eyed Susan. That’s a whopping seven, including Orb, and kudos to those trainers, owners and the horses for being ready and taking a chance on short leave. Maybe they looked recent history.

Since 2001, the winner of the Preakness ran in the Derby 10 times in 12 tries. Five of those won the Derby. Only two were Preakness new shooters. From the new shooters’ races, one was Bernardini, where the Derby winner broke down. The other won the Kentucky Oaks (Rachel Alexandra).

If the past 12 years are any indicator, the winner rests in that list of seven horses.

Could Orb ‘Tell’ Shug to Pull the Plug?

The time after the Kentucky Derby feels like those boozy hangover-ridden mornings where the only cure is a chicken-fried steak and one of those memory-erasing sticks they use in Men in Black.

Just like the cure for the hangover is more booze, the cure the Derby hangover is more betting. So let’s move this narrative along to Maryland.

No sooner does the Kentucky Derby winner—Orb in this case—cross the finish line do the Triple Crown questions start. Orb has the running style to do it. He proved he can run on an off-track (though will an off-track at Pimlico or Belmont be equivalent to Churchill? Probably not. As we know, mud in the Kentucky is a better class of mud.).

Orb is lightly raced, but also has enough experience, too.

But I just don’t see him winning the Triple Crown, and it will be his trainer who pulls the plug.

Let’s assume Orb wins the Preakness, which, with the new shooters and some good Derby horses wheeling back, is no lock. Shug McGaughey always says let the horse bring him wherever—the Breeders’ Cup, the Derby, Applebees.

If Orb hangs his head a centimeter lower than he normally does, this horse will be at the farm faster than you can 1978.