Unrequited Greatness

Cold hearted orb
That rules the night
Removes the colors
From our sight
Red is gray and
Yellow white
But we decide
Which is right
And
Which is an Illusion

ELMONT, NY, May 21, 2013--Music fans were unsure what Justin Hayward had in mind when he wrote those lyrics for the Moody Blues nearly a half century ago, and so the interpretation of the entire piece, “Nights in White Satin,” briefly became a cottage industry unto itself.

The story of yearning love from afar was the popular notion, but the lyrics turned out to be the autobiographical story of one relationship ending and another beginning, according to its author.

In the same fashion, racing fans are trying to interpret another Orb these days, deciding which is right; the Orb that dominated his rivals in Florida and Kentucky, or were those hints of greatness only an illusion?

No one knew it at the time, not the horse’s trainer, jockey, or owners, believing they were entering another scale-weights classic. What they failed to realize was that Preakness 138 was a handicap.

And Orb could not carry the weight of the entire racing world on Saturday in Baltimore.

You Feelin’ Lucky, Punter?

If the Pimlico Special-Preakness double means anything, which it does, it appears that Orb is likely to be 4-5 or possibly less at post time.

Orb looms the most probable winner, whether you believe there's a lot more in the tank, which I believe there is, or his last was indeed a very big forward move, he's coming back in two weeks, and has drawn the rail.

All his success in two turn races this year have come racing outside of horses. The reason for the short price, the horse notwithstanding, are the popular connections, the talents of Joel Rosario and the public wants it.

(Remember, the public wanted better background checks, too).

But Orb is a very good horse, and good horses show up on the day. When they don't, they still win. Orb definitely should win, but that's not the way to bet, as the saying goes.

Only Insurrection Can Save California Racing

HOLLYWOOD, CA., May 19, 2013--I arrived from the east in 1975 and I thought I had died and gone to heaven. California racing was considered by many as the best in the nation. Most people dreamed of plying their chosen trade on the west coast one day.

Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar were operated by true lovers of the sport then. The state was blessed with people like the Strub family, Marje Everett, John and Betty Mabee. But the transformation has been ugly.

In recent years especially, we have seen administrative greed and stupidity tear the fabric of what once was. People are running away from California racing faster than a thief with a stolen purse.

I am witnessing the collapse of California Thoroughbred racing first hand.

Open Letter to L.A. Times’ Bill Dwyre

The following private letter is in response to turf writer Bill Dwyre’s L.A. Times story “Deaths Have Baffert Baffled.” It found its way to HRI on the recommendation of Warren Eves, a journalist for a half century and friend of the author, who felt the message was too important not to share with a wider audience. It is printed here at the author’s request.

Dear Mr. Dwyre:

On the rash of sudden deaths of horses trained by Bob Baffert:

We don’t need the medical director of the California Horse Racing Board Rick Arthur to tell us what an “anomaly” it is when seven healthy horses suddenly die under one trainer’s barn.

You wrote, “oft-misinformed social media stirs the rumor pot to a boil.” You continued, “Baffert is angry that he has been deemed guilty of something that isn't even defined by his accusers. He calls them the hate guys.”

Baffert has an uncanny way of finding straw men to blame. Isn’t this a classic example of slaying the messenger in order to forget the message?

Is it possible people are misinformed due to the reluctance of some, including Baffert himself, to be transparent? Does anyone yet know a single name of any of the horses?

I guess we’ll remember them all as John and Jane Doe.

There is Orb and there is everyone else in the Preakness

Orb stands so far above the rest of the 3-year-old class that it's difficult to single out which of his eight rivals represents the biggest threat to him in the Preakness. All Orb has to do is run his race without experiencing horrendous racing luck to head to Belmont Park with a big shot to end the Triple Crown draught.

Calder-Gulfstream conflict turns ugly early

Two months before Calder and Gulfstream are scheduled to begin racing head-to-head, the first shots were fired in what could turn into a scorched earth conflict with no winners. South Florida horsemen withdrew permission to export Calder's simulcast signal, which in only four days cost the track millions in revenue. It also cost horsemen a 20% purse reduction. A temporary settlement on May 9 kicked the can down the road. Meanwhile, Gulfstream got permission to open on June 25, which qualifies it as a year-round simulcast host. Calder, of course, is appealing.

Which Derby Runner Looms as Orb’s Biggest Threat?

There’s two things we need, or would like to see, for Saturday’s Preakness. One is Orb winning, thus keeping the Triple Crown alive. Two, a dry, fast track.

If the latter holds true, then the former might have trouble.

Twenty horses go to Kentucky and maybe five or six travel to Baltimore. This year is no different with Orb, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents committing to Black-eyed Susan. That’s a whopping seven, including Orb, and kudos to those trainers, owners and the horses for being ready and taking a chance on short leave. Maybe they looked recent history.

Since 2001, the winner of the Preakness ran in the Derby 10 times in 12 tries. Five of those won the Derby. Only two were Preakness new shooters. From the new shooters’ races, one was Bernardini, where the Derby winner broke down. The other won the Kentucky Oaks (Rachel Alexandra).

If the past 12 years are any indicator, the winner rests in that list of seven horses.

Could Orb ‘Tell’ Shug to Pull the Plug?

The time after the Kentucky Derby feels like those boozy hangover-ridden mornings where the only cure is a chicken-fried steak and one of those memory-erasing sticks they use in Men in Black.

Just like the cure for the hangover is more booze, the cure the Derby hangover is more betting. So let’s move this narrative along to Maryland.

No sooner does the Kentucky Derby winner—Orb in this case—cross the finish line do the Triple Crown questions start. Orb has the running style to do it. He proved he can run on an off-track (though will an off-track at Pimlico or Belmont be equivalent to Churchill? Probably not. As we know, mud in the Kentucky is a better class of mud.).

Orb is lightly raced, but also has enough experience, too.

But I just don’t see him winning the Triple Crown, and it will be his trainer who pulls the plug.

Let’s assume Orb wins the Preakness, which, with the new shooters and some good Derby horses wheeling back, is no lock. Shug McGaughey always says let the horse bring him wherever—the Breeders’ Cup, the Derby, Applebees.

If Orb hangs his head a centimeter lower than he normally does, this horse will be at the farm faster than you can 1978.