Unrequited Greatness

Cold hearted orb
That rules the night
Removes the colors
From our sight
Red is gray and
Yellow white
But we decide
Which is right
And
Which is an Illusion

ELMONT, NY, May 21, 2013--Music fans were unsure what Justin Hayward had in mind when he wrote those lyrics for the Moody Blues nearly a half century ago, and so the interpretation of the entire piece, “Nights in White Satin,” briefly became a cottage industry unto itself.

The story of yearning love from afar was the popular notion, but the lyrics turned out to be the autobiographical story of one relationship ending and another beginning, according to its author.

In the same fashion, racing fans are trying to interpret another Orb these days, deciding which is right; the Orb that dominated his rivals in Florida and Kentucky, or were those hints of greatness only an illusion?

No one knew it at the time, not the horse’s trainer, jockey, or owners, believing they were entering another scale-weights classic. What they failed to realize was that Preakness 138 was a handicap.

And Orb could not carry the weight of the entire racing world on Saturday in Baltimore.

You Feelin’ Lucky, Punter?

If the Pimlico Special-Preakness double means anything, which it does, it appears that Orb is likely to be 4-5 or possibly less at post time.

Orb looms the most probable winner, whether you believe there's a lot more in the tank, which I believe there is, or his last was indeed a very big forward move, he's coming back in two weeks, and has drawn the rail.

All his success in two turn races this year have come racing outside of horses. The reason for the short price, the horse notwithstanding, are the popular connections, the talents of Joel Rosario and the public wants it.

(Remember, the public wanted better background checks, too).

But Orb is a very good horse, and good horses show up on the day. When they don't, they still win. Orb definitely should win, but that's not the way to bet, as the saying goes.

There is Orb and there is everyone else in the Preakness

Orb stands so far above the rest of the 3-year-old class that it's difficult to single out which of his eight rivals represents the biggest threat to him in the Preakness. All Orb has to do is run his race without experiencing horrendous racing luck to head to Belmont Park with a big shot to end the Triple Crown draught.

Calder-Gulfstream conflict turns ugly early

Two months before Calder and Gulfstream are scheduled to begin racing head-to-head, the first shots were fired in what could turn into a scorched earth conflict with no winners. South Florida horsemen withdrew permission to export Calder's simulcast signal, which in only four days cost the track millions in revenue. It also cost horsemen a 20% purse reduction. A temporary settlement on May 9 kicked the can down the road. Meanwhile, Gulfstream got permission to open on June 25, which qualifies it as a year-round simulcast host. Calder, of course, is appealing.

Triple Crown? Who Needs It?!

Kill the Triple Crown. Off with its head. We don’t need it, yet for some reason we cling to this notion, this pie(orb?)-in-the-sky will somehow “save” horse racing.

Here’s what will happen after a horse wins the Triple Crown:

1. He’ll be on the cover of Sports Illustrated (Yippee! Now you’ve got a two bowed tendons!)

2. By Father’s Day, nobody will care.

I’d love to see it, but I think it’s high time to change the narrative. Horse racing isn’t dying, nor will it be revived or rejuvenated by a Triple Crown winner. Horse racing exists in its own ORBit, like the moon (orb?), on the outside of the sport landscape, tugged along by gravity, with waxing and waning phases. Yet, there it is.

Which Derby Runner Looms as Orb’s Biggest Threat?

There’s two things we need, or would like to see, for Saturday’s Preakness. One is Orb winning, thus keeping the Triple Crown alive. Two, a dry, fast track.

If the latter holds true, then the former might have trouble.

Twenty horses go to Kentucky and maybe five or six travel to Baltimore. This year is no different with Orb, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents committing to Black-eyed Susan. That’s a whopping seven, including Orb, and kudos to those trainers, owners and the horses for being ready and taking a chance on short leave. Maybe they looked recent history.

Since 2001, the winner of the Preakness ran in the Derby 10 times in 12 tries. Five of those won the Derby. Only two were Preakness new shooters. From the new shooters’ races, one was Bernardini, where the Derby winner broke down. The other won the Kentucky Oaks (Rachel Alexandra).

If the past 12 years are any indicator, the winner rests in that list of seven horses.

Orb’s Right on Time


ELMONT, NY, May 13, 2013—With one eye on Derby accomplishment and the other on Saturday’s Preakness, a mixed signals view of the 2013 sophomore class in the HRI Triple Crown Power Ratings, Week 10.

Orb, as previously stated, has the best chance to sweep the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid in 1979. (Sorry, Smarty, there just were those nagging mile and-a-half doubts. It turned out that you got the distance, your rider, not so much).

With Shug McGaughey Malibu Moon colt shipping to Maryland as this is being written, eight are lining up against him--if Vyjack is numbered among them. As of now, that will be an entry-time decision.

A Maryland contact trying to acquire seats for the Preakness was informed late last week that the event was entirely sold out. There’s something happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear.

But given the Derby’s strong handle figures and TV ratings, everybody seems interested, apparently even the casual fans. Either the Derby points system was a resounding success or there’s something mystical about the Preakness favorite.

He just might be the lunatic Triple Crown fans have been waiting for. Here’s a closer look:

Orb 3-1 to Sweep Triple Crown


SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 5, 2013—At this moment, five horses from the Kentucky Derby are expected to challenge Orb in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, a week from Saturday.

Three of the five are considered definite; Goldencents, and the Wayne Lukas pair of Will Take Charge and Oxbow. The connections of Mylute and Itsmyluckyday are expected to decide within a few days.

The second, third and fourth finishers will pass, their connections not wanting to run their horses back in two weeks. *According to Daily Racing Form in a May 6 post, Normandy Invasion is currently under consideration.

As of today, Stuart Janney's and Ogden Mills Phipps' colt is a 3-1 proposition to sweep the Triple Crown according to Bovada, an online wagering site.

The six expected to ship to Maryland probably would prefer more time, too. This year is just the latest example of the Triple Crown failing to adapt to today's equines and the needs of modern day horsemen. Until it does, the series never will be as good as it can be.

And as long raceday Lasix is permitted, the breed doesn't figure to improve any time soon. Remember when improving the breed mattered in this sport?