Uncle Mo
Why he will win: He loves Churchill Downs. Won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile there in a laugher.
Why he won't: OK, Street Sense shattered the bugaboo, but the fact remains that juvenile champions usually don't win the Derby.
Will: His grandparents are A.P. Indy and Storm Cat. Wrap him up, I'll take him.
Won't: Four career starts going into the Derby? Didn't bother Big Brown (three starts), but doesn't happen very often.
Soldat
Will: He can go a mile and a quarter, without taking a cab.
Won't: The only thing that might stop him is peaking early.
Brethren
Will: A reprise for the 18-year-old sire Distorted Humor (remember Funny Cide). And if that isn't enough, he's a half-brother to Super Saver.
Won't: If he doesn't lose between now and May 7, watch out. I know all about Big Brown and Barbaro and Smarty Jones, but I still don't like an all-winning horse in the Derby.
Jaycito
Will: Another War Emblem, sort of. Mike Mitchell off, Bob Baffert on.
Won't: They don't run the Derby on synthetics or grass.
Silver Medallion
Will: Does Steve Asmussen have a Derby out there with his name on it?
Won't: A May foal.
Anthony's Cross
Will: When Eoin Harty gets super confident about a horse, you better believe.
Won't: Lil E. Tee and Smarty Jones were Pennsylvania-breds. One time when something won't come in a three.
The Factor
Will: He's shed the label of being the wise-guy horse at an early date.
Won't: 15 horses whose names started with the have run in the Derby. None finished better than third.
To Honor and Serve
Will: Bill Mott's record in the Derby has been abysmal. His time has come.
Won't: His front-running style is all wrong for the race.
Gourmet Dinner
Will: Non-winning horses that hit the board in Derby preps are dangerous in Louisville.
Won't: Nine career starts before the Derby? Unheard of, these days.
27 Feb 2011 at 09:48 pm | #
Good post, really helpful to me. Thanks for sharing. What’s about comparing prices and shopping online.
28 Feb 2011 at 06:59 am | #
BC,
What about pre-BC champion 2YOs from the 70s, especially dominant ones like Secretariat and Seatttle Slew as well as Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, and Riva Ridge? And then there were the recent undefeated 2YOs like Big Brown, Barbaro, and Smarty Jones. Like Street Sense, his BC Juvenile victory was at CD.
The avuncular one looks even better to me now-ow-ow in the top two slots of my Derby dime Super.
Since so many recent Derbies have been run over wet tracks, Soldat could be as dangerous as he is versatile. Dialed In can still live up to his breeding as well as Zito’s multiple-derby wins, but I’ll be surprised if any of the others finish in the money on Derby day, assuming they actually start.
28 Feb 2011 at 04:21 pm | #
re: Silver Medallion, “half of the Kentucky Derby winners in the past decade were April or May foals”
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56598/derby-birthdays-who-will-take-the-cake#ixzz1FIAU7GPU
28 Feb 2011 at 06:13 pm | #
For the record, here they are:
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus, April foal
2001 Monarchos, February
2002 War Emblem, February
2003 Funny Cide, April
2004 Smarty Jones, February
2005 Giacomo, February
2006 Barbaro, April
2007 Street Sense, February
2008 Big Brown, April
2009 Mine That Bird, May
2010 Super Saver, March