Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, November 08, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, NOV 10-12


WISCONSIN over Penn State by 6

The Nittany Lions were installed as 1.5-point favorites in this game at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas before the season started. Now, this inflated number seems to fly in the face of the Lions’ 42-7 beating at the hands of Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines on Saturday. We understand the Badgers have underperformed but so too have the Lions, who enter on a 4-game ATS losing skein, losing the stats in each game, which makes them another ‘leaking oil’ favorite. In addition, Wisky is a stellar 5-0 ATS since 1990 when seeking triple revenge-exact. Meanwhile, since taking over for Gary Andersen after the 2014 season, head coach Paul Chryst is 40-10 SU in Madison, including 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS away, with only 3 losses by more than 7 points. This is still a hugely important game for Bucky, as Wisconsin is tied with Purdue, just a game behind Northwestern in the Big Ten West.



NFL


NEW York Giants over SF by 7

Niners QB Nick Mullins’ debut start last week was one for the record books. His 151.9 passer rating was the second best ever (behind Marcus Mariota in 2015) for a quarterback in his first NFL game. The ex-practice squad signal-caller stunned the NFL nation when he took apart the Oakland Raiders last Thursday. Then again the Raiders are falling apart like a cheap suit these days, as their reputed “dive for draft picks” crusade is well under way. Frisco returns after Mullins’ coming out party in another prime-time affair sporting bodacious Monday Night numbers, including 12-1 ATS the last twelve. The problem we have, however, is the Niners are just 1-12 ATS as a favorite the last five years, with the only cover by Jimmy Garoppolo (now on the DL for the season). In addition, they are also 1-7 ATS against rested foes coming off consecutive losses. And while the well-rested visiting Giants aren’t much, they set up THE CLINCHER: 125 or less NFL teams with a week of rest are 19-3-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win.

Detroit over CHICAGO by 3

When we find a team that scores 40 points in a game while putting up only 190 yards of offense, we’re first in line to fade them the following game. And when they are laying more points at home than they have won by in the last six years in the series, we’re prepared to snap the rubber band. The Lions enter trailing the Bears by two full games following last week’s disappointing 24-9 loss at Minnesota. Its sets this game up, though, as Detroit is 5-1 ATS following a division game in which they failed to score 10 points. On the fl ip side, Chicago is 1-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points when facing losing foes coming off a SUATS loss. Strap on Matthew
Stafford’s 9-1 SU mark in his last ten starts in this series and we’re on our way to the window.














































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Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 01, 2018


Top College & Pro Upsets, NOV 3-4


WEST VIRGINIA over Texas by 10

With Texas losing to Oklahoma State, Bevo has fallen into a first place tie with Oklahoma and West Virginia at 4-1. For the Longhorns a victory would be ultra important because they would control their destiny to becoming Big 12 regular season champions. However, if we have learned anything about coach Tom Herman’s club, they are seldom trustworthy. While Texas was not actually in the ‘Bubble Burst’ role, they sure appear to be so as they just coughed up the top spot inthe Big 12 conference with last week’s choke job at Oklahoma State. Another bad sign for the Horns, they are 1-6 ATS with a winning record when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Mountaineers will land in Austin with two extra days of rest after blasting Baylor at 58-14, handily covering the -14.5 points. Dana Holgorsen might not be the sharpest coach in college football but his ‘Teers are 4-2 ATS against Texas and 7-2 ATS as Big 12 road underdogs of a touchdown or less. And there’s always THE CLINCHER: The Mountaineers are 13-4 SU and 14-3 ATS away against foes coming off a SU favorite loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six and 8-0 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.



IOWA over Purdue by 11

Who can get up off the mat after last week’s discouraging road losses? Trailing 30-24 in the fi nal quarter of a seesaw slugfest at Penn State, Iowa had a 1st-and-goal at the Lions’ 3-yard line with 3:00 left – and QB Nate Stanley promptly tossed a game-killing pick. "This one’s going to hurt,” said head Hawkeye Kirk Ferentz. Purdue also managed to hang around for most of its battle against Michigan State but a 48-yard breakaway TD pass reception put the game out of reach for the Boilers with less than 2 minutes remaining. “We did not get ready to play this game,” said Purdue HC Jeff Brohm. Okay, boys… no excuses this time. We’ve been big Boiler backers this season but not this week, not with them just 1-3 In The Stats their last four games. And certainly not with ‘Due now 2-10 SUATS in its last 12 conference games when coming off a SU favorite loss. Iowa lost to the Boilermakers last year as 6.5-point home chalk, 24-14, but the series visitor has cashed every time in the last eight meetings. The Hawkeyes also stand 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and their 8-0 ITS success this season means they’re a SMART BOX play to boot. We have great respect for Purdue’s Brohm but Ferentz has seen it all, calling the shots on the Iowa sideline for the last 20 years. That’s a perfect segue into THE CLINCHER: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is 15-5 ATS in conference games with an equal or better record when both teams are coming off a loss, including 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 6 or more points.

NFL


PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 1.

Don’t look now but the Steelers are on their muscle. After a troublesome 1-2-1 start to the season, the Steel Curtain is coming down hard on opponents, entering today’s game on a 3-0 SUATS win skein. Meanwhile, the fast-starting Ravens are backpedaling, having dropped 3 of their last four games after opening 3-1 in September. With it our well-oiled machine chimes in noting that the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS as division dogs since 2000, including 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Big Ben and the boys will be looking to avenge a 26-14 home loss suffered to the Black Birds last month knowing the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs in this series when coming off a win of 7 or more points. In a matchup of two teams on opposite ends of the teeter-totter, we wrap it up with THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS as a division dog behind Ben Roethlisberger against foes with at least one win on the season, including 5-0 ATS when coming off ATS win or 3 points or more.

Green Bay over NEW ENGLAND by 1


The Packers bring the type of numbers we like – namely an underdog with the better offense and the better defense – into this battle, something we’re sure our sister publication the MIDWEEK ALERT will likely comment more on when the publication comes out later this week. The hard-luck cheeseheads enter tonight’s game at 3-3-1 on the season knowing they are 34-16 SU and 29-20-1 ATS in games with a .500 or less record behind QB Aaron Rodgers, including 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS against foes sporting a winning record (5-1 ATS as a dog). Not to mention Rodgers’ superb 5-0 ATS career mark as a dog of more than 6 points. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t call out the fact that the Cheesecake Factory is 9-0 ATS versus non-division opposition when coming off a nondivision game and facing a foe off a division contest. Meanwhile, the Pats enter off Monday night’s late win-and-cover over division rival Buffalo and stands just 7-9 SU and 5-9-2 ATS in Monday night division followups. Look for the Pack to improve to 7-1-1 ATS the last nine games in this series, including 5-0 ATS in their last five at Foxborough, tonight. TS win of 3 or more points.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 25, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets OCT 27-28


Florida over Georgia by 6

Though it’s no longer socially acceptable to call Florida versus Georgia the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, we’re fine with it and will continue to embrace tradition. Both teams enter this conflict off a bye and the Bulldogs should be fired up after suffering their first loss of the season at LSU following a 6-0 start. Coach Kirby Smart’s club fits our famed ‘Bubble Burst’ scenario against the Tigers. The Dawgs could well be in trouble again since favorites of 3 or more points that just had a 6-0 SU or greater start spoiled are 68-96-2 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. Since losing to Kentucky in its SEC opener, Florida is 5-0 SUATS as the players have bought into new HC Dan Mullen’s teachings. In this series, when one team is off consecutive victories, they are 15-3 ATS. Last season, the Gators were tossed back in the swamp, losing 42-7 to Georgia. According to the well-oiled machine, we found teams with conference revenge, with a win percentage of more than .800 when coming off a win of 8 or more points, are 19-7 SU and 19-5-2 ATS. Toss in a Bulldog fade from last week’s ‘Behind The 8-Ball’ SMART BOX and we’re first in line for this party. Still not sure? Then try THE CLINCHER: Florida is 15-4 SU in this series with an equal or greater win percentage.



USF over Houston by 6


To get us started, name the only FBS conference with two unbeaten teams? If you knew it was the American Athletic Conference, you are paying attention. One of those teams will be in action today and that is South Florida, who is 7-0 (2-5 ATS) and covered its only underdog role this season. The Bulls average 35.6 PPG and are 11th nationally in total offense. USF has fallen three straight times to Houston, covering once and is 6-0 ATS with conference revenge. Houston’s only defeat this season was at Lubbock, falling 63-49 as two-point away dogs. While the Cougars offense is certainly impressive in scoring 48.7 PPG and listed No.3 in total offense, the fact remains they are 117th in total defense. Let’s dive into the details. Houston is 1-9 ATS when facing conference revenge and 3-9 ATS as conference home favorite when taking on a team whose winning percentage is .666 or higher. The Cougs are conceding 29.1 PPG and while they have tied a school record with seven straight 40-plus points outcomes (2011), the lack of defense is a real concern. We close with THE CLINCHER: 5-0 or greater undefeated college football teams that were bowlers last season are 8-2 ATS as underdogs against foes that allow 24.5 or more PPG, including 5-0 ATS away against foes with at least one loss on the season.

NFL

Green Bay over LA Rams by 1

Here we go, stepping in front of the freight train from LA. And for all the right reasons may we add. For openers, the line in Las Vegas at Cantor Gaming before the season started was Rams -3. So thanks to a 7-0 start for the Rams this line has moved a full touchdown... against Aaron Rodgers, no less. For those of you itching to know: Rodgers has been an underdog of more than 6 points four times in his NFL career. He is 4-0 ATS in those games. He is also 15-5-1 ATS when taking points in games in which the Packers sport a win percentage of less than .666. And Rodgers is 10-2 ATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off an ATS loss, including 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses. In addition, Green Bay is 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS with rest during the regular season when Rodgers is behind center. And this nugget from our well-oiled machine: 7-0 favorites of more than 6 points in Game Eight of the season are just 5-8 ATS. But we saved the best for last with THE CLINCHER: The Rams are 11-21 SU and 10-20-2 ATS all-time against NFC North opponents (4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21), including 2-13 SU and 2-12-1 ATS against foes coming off a win.

SEATTLE over Detroit by 10

The Seahawks return from their win over Oakland in London in an ideal scheduling spot. Not only are they 5-0 ATS in AFC sandwiches, QB Russell Wilson is 12-4 ATS as a dog when coming off a win. Wilson is also 11-1-1 ATS in his brilliant NFL career taking points against foes coming off consecutive wins. Compounding matters for the Lions, Detroit is 9-19-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins behind QB Matthew Stafford, including 2-8 ATS when off a spread win of more than 4 points. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t share with you this from Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2: Since the advent of the NFL International Series in London starting in 2007, a total of 26 teams have failed to score more than 30 points in those games. Upon returning to the states, these teams have gone 17-8-1 SU and 18-6-2 ATS the following game. And when they faced non-division foes in those games, they zoomed to 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS. Welcome back, Seattle. With that we wrap things up with THE CLINCHER: Detroit is 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or greater record when coming off a double-digit win and facing an opponent coming off a win.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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