Thursday, November 29, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Dec. 1-3

College Pick

TCU over Oklahoma by 6

Remember the old television show ‘Have Gun - Will Travel’ which aired from 1957-1963 and starred Richard Boone? Well, the 2012 version stars the Oklahoma Sooners and is called ‘Have Gun – Won’t Cover.’ The high-scoring Sooner Schooner, led by the slinging Landry Jones, has lit up the scoreboard for 50 or more points fi ve times this season, yet are only 4-6 on the ATS scorecard. In fact, they really haven’t come close to covering in the last three weeks (all wins) and the last time they did bring home the cash was a 35-20 win over Iowa State in early November. Yet, somehow through it all, Bob Stoops’ squad just may nab that fi nal at-large BCS bid (Notre Dame, Florida and Oregon fi gure to get the other three) as conferences (read: SEC) are limited to just two invites. Of course a win today along with some help from Texas would guarantee the Sooners a BCS bowl, but our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 says OU is completely over-cooked concerning this little get together in Forth Worth. So does our database as it reminds us that the Sooners are 1-5 ATS after ogling with Oklahoma State and 2-6 ATS as conference chalk of 10 or less points. And when you throw in TCU’s 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS log in Last Hone Games, including 4-0 SU ATS when not favored by 13 or more points, and 9-3-1 ATS mark as conference dogs of 10 or less points, you can see why we think the combination of our AWESOME ANGLE along with the OSU letdown and the importance of this contest will spell doom for the erratic Sooners. We say take what you can get but you won’t need it as the Horned Frogs jump to 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in this series since 1996.



PRO PICKS

MIAMI over New England by 6


They’re big, they’re bad and they’re ferocious. With only three losses this season by a grand total of 4 points, the Patriots have the look of a cat that just ate the whole bird. In this case, New England did when they devoured the Jets on Thanksgiving Day in a 30-point feast. That sets the table for today’s fray as NFL road teams off a Turkey Day game are only 3-21 SU and 6-17-1 ATS when facing a foe off a SUATS win. And the bigger they are, the harder they fall as these visiting teams are 1-15 SU and 2-13-1 ATS if they own a winning record. Add brazen Bill’s 0-5 ATS career mark in road tilts off wins in his last fi ves contests where both his team and the visitor are off SUATS wins, and suddenly ‘bad’ takes on a whole new meaning. Miami chips in with a sterling 6-1-1 ATS record in division home games when seeking quadruple revenge exact and better yet, 10-1 ATS in revengers against division foes with a winning record. Add in the fact that the fi ve rookie starting QB’s are an eye-opening 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS as home dogs this campaign and just like that we’re
on Ryan Tannehill and the Fish in this post-tryptophan tryst as the Pats hold off popping the AFC East champagne for another week.


TENNESSEE over Houston by 4

Life atop the division standings is carefree and comfortable for teams with a 3-game lead in the NFL this time of the year. Too comfy if you’re the Houston Texans, a team that sprinted out to a lead in the AFC South and has never looked back. A 38-14 romp over the Titans back in September played out to a 22-20 ‘re-score’ win for Tennessee in our MIDWEEK ALERT when the Titans outgained the Texans, 325-297, in the contest. Armed with ‘inside-out’ loss division revenge, Tennessee enters off a phony 24-19 ‘inside-out’ loss as 3-point favorites at Jacksonville last week in which they outgained the Jaguars in the total stats. That sets the
stage for this tilt as our prodigious database note: NFL division home dogs with revenge, off a SU road favorite loss, are 10-2 ATS when taking more than 3 points from a foe off a win of 7 or less points since 1980. With Houston on cloud nine and just 2-5-1 ATS in its expansion franchise history as favorites against avenging division opponents (including 0-3 SUATS when laying less than 6 points), look for the wear and tear of back-to-back overtime wins to knock the tall, tall Texans off their saddles today.


WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 10

To say this has been quite a crop of rookie quarterbacks this season would be an understatement. Collectively, through Game Eleven, they’ve been money in the bank at home (18-8-1 ATS) and as dogs (25-12-1 ATS). Heading the pack is electrifying Robert Griffin III who has held up his end of the deal, going 5-2 ATS as a dog, winning four times in straight-up fashion. RGIII’s 104.6 QB Rating ranks 4th best in the league and he’s playing with revenge from a 27-23 loss at in which the Skins outgained the Giants, 480-393. That sets up this call as our database notes Monday night home teams seeking revenge off a SU road win are a sterling 25-
6-2 ATS when hosting a foe off a home win since 1980. The welloiled machine also reminds us that sub .700 NFL home teams off a SUATS Thanksgiving Day win are 14-5 SUATS, including 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS when taking on a .333 or greater opponent. With the G-Men bumbling on the road at 2-11 ATS against opponents off a SU dog win during the 3rd Quarter (Games Nine-Twelve) of the season, and the Pigskins 9-0-1 ATS as dogs off a pair of wins when facing a foe off a SUATS win, look for RGIII to light up the crowd and the scoreboard once again tonight.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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