Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, November 12, 2015

College & Pro Upsets, November 14-15

Virginia Tech over GEORGIA TECH by 6

The Hokies need two wins in their final three games to send retiring HC Frank Beamer out in style as that would mark Beamer’s 23rd consecutive bowl appearance. Otherwise, it would be an inglorious ending to a stellar Hall of Fame career. It would also have us calling the Hokies ‘bastards’ and putting a large ‘Pitt’ in our stomachs as we’re big fans of Beamer Ball. That’s the case once again this week as we can see he’s not fond of being an underdog to a team that beat him in a previous matchup (fell at home, 27-24, to the Yellow Jackets last year). Beamer also knows that Coastal-leading UNC is still on the docket so one of those two wins will likely need to come tonight if he hopes to be playing into December. Thankfully, the Jackets appear to be the perfect fodder. At 1-5 in ACC play, Paul Johnson’s jokers currently reside in the Coastal cellar and are 0-4 SUATS as conference chalk this season. Better yet, this has been a visitor’s series with the road team covering eight of the last nine, including each of the last five. However, the main reason we believe the Hokies will win in Atlanta for the fifth time in sixth tries.

Pro Picks


Talk about visions rolling around in your head. ESPN midday radio host Dan LeBatard painted the picture best, saying that when he thinks of Andy Reid he envisions a man hovering over a box of doughnuts, wiggling his fingers saying, “I don’t mind if I do.” Yes, the Pillsbury Dough Boy is back after a full week of hitting the morning drive-thru at Dunkin’ Donuts, ready to make his move following a 2-game win streak prior to the Bye week. The Chiefs enter 4-1 ATS In games off a double-digit win, and 20-11-1 ATS as division dogs versus foes off a SU favorite loss. And speaking of dumping as a favorite, the Broncos saw their perfect season go down the drain at Indianapolis last Sunday, setting themselves up in a classic ‘Bubble Burst’ role. And with that thought in mind, the all-knowing database jumps in, noting that NFL
teams who suffered their first loss after starting the season 4-0 or better are 1-7 ATS when facing a rested foe in the following game, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite. But rest assured, we think Andy is just dandy in his optimum role here today. And so does The Clincher: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 17-3 SU when playing with rest in his NFL career, including 5-0 SUATS in games in which his team owns a losing record, and 5-0 SUATS versus opponents off a loss.

ARIZONA over Seattle by 7

Yes, we realize its push-comes-to-shove time for the defending Super Bowl losing Seahawks who fi nd themselves two games back of the NFC West leaders from Arizona, but it’s never hard backing the better team getting points. Especially in Sunday night primetime games where division hosts have struggled (0-2 ATS this season). In fact, bring them in as home favorites against greater than .600 division rivals off a win and they melt down like a Reese’s peanut butter cup on the beach, going 6-16-1 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. Toss in Arizona’s glossy 7-1 ATS record with rest versus division opponents, and Seattle’s squeamish 1-10 ATS mark in games with rest versus opponents off a SUATS win, and you get our drift. The bottom line is the Seabags are simply not the same team that’s appeared in the past two Super Bowls. On the other hand, the Cardinals are poised and ready to take their place. The Clincher: Arizona head coach Bruce Arians is 15-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog of less than 7 points.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 05, 2015

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Nov. 7-9

Oklahoma State over TCU by 8

This afternoon matchup in Stillwater between No. 3 TCU and No. 10 Okie State is just the first in a string of heavyweight contests in November that will determine the Big 12 champion, and a likely trip
to the College Football Playoff. And while we’ll readily admit that Horned Frog QB Trevone Boykin is the best player on the field today, the Cowboys own some of the biggest ATS edges we’ve ever seen in what many expect to be a tightly-contested clash. For openers, there’s no denying TCU’s defense is down a notch this year and the Froggies have been pointspread poison as road chalk in games when they allow 20 or more points, going 6-30 ATS, including 1-14 ATS the last fifteen. Enter OSU head coach Mike Gundy’s 33-8 SU and 25-12-1 ATS success in games where the Cowboys are undefeated, including 19-3 SU at home – and in those 22 home games, his team has scored 20 or more points in every game. The Fort Worth Frogs also have to overcome a trio of disturbing trends: 1-4 ATS away versus Big 12 revenge, 1-3 ATS as conference road favorites of less than 7 points, and 2-6 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points. Oklahoma State has compiled an impressive 18-5 SU and 17-5-1 ATS log against Texas teams since 2009, plus the Pokes are a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ play from this week’s SMART BOX. Gundy and company are also burning to get even for last year’s 42-9 smackdown by TCU, a defeat that sent OSU into a 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS slide that almost capsized its season (it took an upset of arch rival Oklahoma in the final regular season game to clinch a bowl berth).

LSU over Alabama

Let’s throw out the poll rankings here. Ohio State and Baylor fans might disagree, but LSU and Alabama look to be the two best top-to-bottom teams in the country heading into tonight’s death match
in Tuscaloosa. And while it’s almost impossible to find a weaknessin either school’s lineup on paper, the always-important ATS edges all line up in favor of the Bayou Bengals. Les Miles’ rested Tigers
are 6-2 ATS off a Bye week of late and they’ve covered five of the previous seven contests on this field. Miles also brings along a 50-11 SU record in games when undefeated, with only FIVE losses by
more than 7 points – making him 56-5 ATS to today’s number! As for Bama’s Nick Saban (the best college coach in America according to our aforementioned ESPN survey), he’s gone just 17-12 SU and 12-16-1 ATS in regular season games with rest, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite versus undefeated foes. The Tide’s 93 YPG advantage in SEC play this season is clearly overshadowed by LSU’s 156 YPG edge in such games, and Alabama has dropped four of its last five against the number as home chalk of 10 or fewer points. With the Tigers also a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ play from this week’s
SMART BOX, we can see nothing less than this puppy going right down to the wire. And let’s not forget The Clincher: The Tigers are 15-5 ATS as conference road dogs with revenge when not facing an undefeated foe, including 7-0 ATS when the Tigers own a win percentage of more than .600 – winning six of the games straight up.

Cincinnati over HOUSTON by 2

The Cougars are on a roll as they just hosted and shut out an SEC team, and next week they host Memphis for control of the AAC West and a potential New Year’s Day payoff! Houston comes in with solid numbers, going 8-2 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points playing with conference revenge, 13-4-1 ATS as a conference home favorites of 8 or more points, plus they’re one of only two teams (Baylor) to beat six teams by 21 or more points this season. Oh yeah, Houston’s head coach Tom Herman was born in Cincinnati. Why is that relevant? Because we finally get to mention this week’s foe, Cincinnati. The Bearcats are ‘only’ 5-3 but they are 5-1-1 ATS in this series, 3-0-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents from Game Six out, and 4-1-1 ATS as conference road dogs of 7 or more points. Last week, Bearcats QB Gunner Kiel was a perfect 15-for-15 passing for 319 yards and five touchdowns. According to ESPN Stats & Info, that was the most completions without an incompletion by any FBS player in the last 20 years and we would be remiss not to mention that TWO of Cincinnati’s losses came with him either out or having been injured during the game. Finally, the level of completion each has faced: Houston is an impressive +198 YPG on the year but the Coogs have not played a team in the top 46 of the ESPN Power Index and have only played TWO teams in the top 100. Cincinnati meanwhile is actually better at +200 YPG with four opponents in the top 46 and FIVE in the top 100. We smell an upset in Cougar town.

PRO Pick

CAROLINA over Green Bay by 7

Like the pearly whites flashed by Carolina QB Cam Newton, the Panthers arrived to 7-0 this season by the skin of their teeth after nearly falling asleep in the 4th quarter of Monday night’s overtime
win against the Colts. Granted, the win-loss record of the foes they’ve defeated may not be much (22-31) but the fact of the matter is they have knocked off everyone who’s been in their path and, as Bill Parcells so famously said, “You are what your record says you are.” And what Carolina happens to be is 11-0 in its last eleven regular season games – and a HOME DOG today. That’s a no-no in our book (just ask the Denver Broncos). Yes, there is a lot to like about Green Bay and it’s all-world QB Aaron Rodgers, who was limited to 77 yards passing - the lowest of his career in a game in which he wasn’t knocked out by injury. We realize the Cheeseheads are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS off an AFC game when facing a non-division opponent, and the Panthers are just 1-5 ATS off a Monday night game when facing a .500 or greater non-division opponent. But what comes to roost there is the fact that Green Bay owns a rotten rush defense, allowing 4.7 DYPR – only four teams worse – while Carolina has rushed for more than 100 yards in 20 straight games. Let the world line up on the Packers. We stick with our contention that defense wins football games. That, and The Clincher: 5-0 or greater teams in the NFL, off their first loss of the season, are 1-6 SU and ATS away versus .600 or greater non-division foes.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Oct. 31-Nov.1

NC STATE over Clemson by 3

There is not a soul in the world – not even Dave Doeren’s mom – that would step in front of the Clemson Express following the Tigers’ 58-0 waxing of Miami last week. In fact, the Colts’ special teams coach probably spent more time drawing up that fake punt than the Tigers have trailed this entire season (six minutes). No, that can’t be possible! Then why has Doeren’s Wolfpack earned Best Bet status this week? For starters, Clemmie is looking dead-ahead to a revenge match with FSU and a 3-7 ATS log before facing the Seminoles tells us they have not been focused the prior week. They are also a winless 0-3 ATS after meeting Miami so this Florida sandwich may just be what Doeren ordered – especially when you consider that the striped ones are 0-7 ATS away versus a foe with conference revenge. And that fits like an inevitably botched American football punt by an Australian kicker to the ‘Pack’s 11-3 ATS mark at home with conference revenge. Even a 4-1 ATS series history since 2010 favors State. All that and there’s still room for The Clincher: Marc’s ‘Kick In The Assets’ angle from the 2007 BLACK BOOK points out the fact that undefeated road favorites from Game Five out, off a DD ATS win facing a .500 or greater conference foe off a SUATS win, are just 8-34-4 ATS since 1980.

Georgia over Florida by 13

Jaybird The Bulldog, our SEC scout, got a call from a longtime Georgia season-ticket holder just minutes after the Dawgs outlasted Missouri, 9-6, in an epic snorefest two weeks ago. When Jay asked his friend if he was planning on making it to this year’s Georgia-Florida game, the man replied, “Jaybird, I would rather face open-heart surgery.” Such is the mood in Athens as Mark Richt and company arrive as underdogs in today’s meeting. The Gators were a favorite or pick’em at the ‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’ for six straight seasons under Urban Meyer, winning five of the six games on the scoreboard. But in the last four seasons, the Gators have been favored only once (6.5-point chalk in 2012), and they lost that one outright, 17-9. With both teams off a Bye, the edge goes to Georgia head coach Richt who is 3-1 SUATS as a dog with rest. In addition, his teams are
5-1 ATS as dogs off three or more spread losses, and are seeking revenge for last year’s 38-20 loss as 11.5-point favorites. “We’re in a one-game playoff,” Georgia senior inside linebacker Jake Ganus said. “It’s do or die every Saturday for these next three SEC games. Win or go home, so we’ve got to find a way to win.” This rivalry has come down to running the ball as the team with the most rushing yards has won nine straight – including last year when the Gators rushed for a mind-boggling 418 yards. However, it will likely be their Achilles’ heel here today as they’re averaging a feeble 99 RYPG and only 2.9 YPR in conference action this season. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the dreaded ‘Bubble Burst’ hanging over the Gators’ heads.

IOWA STATE over Texas by 3

The Longhorns failed to crash and burn following a monster win over Oklahoma as they derailed Kansas State in dreary, monsoon-like conditions last week, scoring with 1:47 remaining to grab the cover. Now they play only their third true road game of the season and while both foes (Notre Dame and TCU) were superior to this Iowa State squad, Texas TOTALED just 10 points and 28 first downs, proving how feeble the offense truly is. A quick glance shows the Cyclones are allowing 465 YPG but when we take away games versus the No. 2 pass offense of Texas Tech and the No. 5 pass offense of TCU, we discover they are only allowing 372 YPG... and this week they face Texas’ No. 122 pass offense. Iowa State’s defense also just held Baylor to a season-low 485 yards, which is amazingly 235 yards below their average. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s Paul Rhodes is 8-2 ATS at home off back-back losses versus sub .700 opponents. Our head coaching database supplies The Clincher: Texas’ Charlie Strong is 1-7 ATS as a conference favorite of 4 or more points off back-to-back straight up wins.


CHICAGO over Minnesota by 6

Surprise. If the NFL playoffs were to start this week, one of these two NFC North rivals would have a ticket... and it’s not the Bears. Mike Zimmer’s Vikings were pretty much a Vegas ‘wise guy’ pick in the preseason and they have not disappointed, breaking out to a 4-2 start and a second-place standing in the Black-and-Blue division. To remain in the talk, however, they must do something they haven’t been able to accomplish since 2012 –the last year they went to the playoffs – and that’s to win three consecutive games. We do know they’ve failed miserably when playing in a division game off a division game and are facing an avenging foe, going 3-13 ATS in this role when they own a .500 or greater record. On the other side of the coin, the in-and-out hibernating Bears are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games as a host in this series. And behind a sneaky good defense, they have also held no less than four opponents to season-low yards this year under John Fox and DC Vic Fangio. We smell an upset.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
Comments (0)

BallHype: hype it up!

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