Friday, December 07, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Dec. 8-10

College Pick

Army over Navy by 1

If you’re a hardcore fan of option-offense football, you’ll be in hog heaven here with CBS’s telecast of the 113th Army-Navy game, a contest that is curiously being promoted this year as ‘America’s Game.’ But if you’re like most of us who fi nd this matchup to be barely relevant and downright boring, you’ll be going AWOL to track down a decent college basketball game to watch. Regardless of your viewing preferences, you should know the main motivation for today’s skirmish is possession of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, something Army has failed to accomplish since 1996. Students of military history will be quick to point out that the drought will probably continue as Navy has won 10 straight series clashes on the fi eld. But we think the ATS outcome – and even the SU result – is clearly in doubt. Though the Middies stand 13-3 ATS versus the foot soldiers when they own the better seasonal win percentage, the seagoers have sprung a leak of late versus the Vegas line. They’re a poor 2-11 ATS against sub .400 foes over the last three campaigns (0-5 ATS this year) and an even worse 1-9 ATS their last 10 tries as pick or favorite, including 0-4 ATS in 2012. Shiver me timbers! Despite its feeble 2-9 SU effort this year, Army leads the land in rushing with 370 YPG, a meaningful stat because the Midshipmen are 0-5 ATS as chalk in games where they allow 125 or more rushing yards. These two teams played one common opponent this season – Air Force – and both emerged victorious to set up today’s CIC title game. However, a big edge goes to Army: the Black Knights won 41-21 as 7-points dogs and also won the stats 414-338, while Navy won 28-21 in overtime as 8-point dogs but lost the stats by a
whopping 507-359. Though series history stacks up in the Middies’ favor, the bottom line here is Navy has a bowl bid in its back pocket and the coveted Commander-In-Chief prize makes this Army’s bowl game. Take
the points with the underdog infantry in this bombshell in Philly today.



Pro Picks

TENNEESSEE over Indy by 6

Playoffs? What playoffs? Yes, if the Colts can hang on to one of the fi nal two playoff spots, it won’t be long until ESPN cracks open the Jim Mora Vault. Actually with two games still left against division-leading Houston,
Indy may still have its sights set on the AFC South. That may seem a bit ambitious, as should the thought of an easy win this afternoon against struggling Tennessee, but Titans’ head coach Mike Munchak answers the
call in this week’s TRIVIA TEASER. Sure, the Titans have dropped four of their last fi ve SU and ATS but they did put a scare into the Colts on Halloween weekend in a 19-13 overtime loss. And while that Indianapolis
win wasn’t as ‘Lucky’ as last week’s miracle in Motown (down 12 with under three minutes to play), it did require Andrew Luck to lead his troops on an 80-yard game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter to force the extra
session. In fact, in that game we used the Colts as a 3* Newsletter Best Bet. With the Titans 10-1 ATS as dogs in the fourth quarter of the season (Games Thirteen-Sixteen) versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, and Indy 0-11 ATS as chalk in these ‘fourth quarter’ games after scoring 35 or more points, we’re ‘all out of love’ for the hosts today in Lucas Oil Stadium. But unlike Air Supply, we’re not alone with our head on the phone as we know the Colts are 1-6 ATS as division favorites of more than 3 points off a SU dog win and that the fi ve rookie starting signal-callers (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden and Wilson) are just 6-10-1 ATS as chalk this campaign. Our MIDWEEK ALERT also informs us that – despite its recent SU and ATS struggles – the Titans have improved +51 net YPG in the stats from Game Seven out. Grab the points as the ‘ChuckStrong’ movement hits a temporary road block in Naptown today.



DETROIT over Green Bay by 3

These Lions may not be cowardly but they could be in need of a new heart after dropping back-to-back gutwrenchers (lost to Indy last Sunday with no time left on the clock). Still, their stats outshine the Packers: Detroit is
winning games by an average 49 YPG this season thanks to a 9-3 ITS mark in 2012. In addition, Detroit has outgained the Cheeseheads in each of the last fi ve meetings in this series. Equally impressive is the jungle kings’7-1 SU effort in the last 8 games of the previous two seasons, including 4 SU pick/underdog wins. As implausible as it may seem, the 435 yards the Packers gained in last week’s win over Minnesota was Green Bay’s high for the season. Not so lofty is the Pack’s 2-9 ATS log as a home favorite of 13 or fewer points versus an avenging division opponent off consecutive losses, or their 0-5 ATS failure when tangling with .333 or less foes (0-4 ATS in 2012). Yeah, the Motor City men look to be in the right role tonight and our database clinches it with this beauty: NFL Sunday night division dogs with revenge off losses in their last 3 games are 9-1 ATS when coming off a non-division defeat. That ought to pay for a heart transplant right there! Time to get in step with the Lions and ease on down the road to Lambeau…


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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