Friday, December 23, 2011
Marc Lawrence Pro Upsets December 24-25
SAN DIEGO over Detroit by 8
A win today and the once-laughable Lions can fi nally clinch a trip to the elusive land of the playoffs. But with both teams still alive in the postseason chase, don’t expect the visitors to be quite so accommodating. Norv must have fi nally fi gured out which switch to engage as the re-energized Chargers have won three straight games by an average score of 36-13. They also show up in Motown brandishing a lethal 13-1 ATS mark as dogs off BB SU wins and an eye-popping 21-4-1 ATS effort in domed stadiums (see INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 2 for more). And Turner himself, who has all but been assured of getting the boot at season’s end, chips in with a 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS record as a dog off three SU wins in a row. After winning its fi rst two home games of the season, Detroit has dropped three out of fi ve on the scoreboard, losing to quality foes (San Francisco, Atlanta, Green Bay) while managing wins over lowly Carolina and Minnesota. We must acknowledge the Lions’ outstanding 18-3 ATS mark as home chalk of 2 or more points when playing off back-to-back SU wins, but head coach Jim Schwartz’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS career mark against teams off a trio of wins is equally disturbing. Our database also sides with the Bolts here as it tells us: Game Fourteen or greater home favorites that have failed to cover in at least three consecutive contests are 5-11 ATS versus a foe that’s cashed three ATS decisions in a row. The trump card here is QB Philip Rivers’ 23-2 SU career mark in December – including 4-0 SU and ATS as a dog. Look for the Lions’ Matthew Stafford to be running for his life all afternoon as the Chargers keep the cork in Detroit’s champagne bottle for one more week.
NY GIANYS over Jets by 10
Sometimes we have to search far and wide for meaningful ATS history surrounding a given matchup – and sometimes the numbers just rain from the sky and fall right into our lap. Such is the case here as the G-Men stand head and shoulders above their cross-town rivals in the ATS department. Not only have the Giants won and covered four straight against Rex’s Flyboys, they enter this ‘town ain’t big enough for both of us’ fray with a 13-6 SU and 15-4 ATS mark in away games versus an opponent off a double-digit SU loss, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when the tall guys are also off a SU loss. And though it’s hard to believe Tom Coughlin’s crew could play as bad as they did in last week’s loss to Washington, it’s a fact that his team thrives in road games following Redskin rumbles, going an impressive 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. Simply put, we’ll back Giants QB Eli Manning as a dog over the Jets’ Mark Sanchez for the remaining days of our life on earth, a notion that’s supported by the younger Manning’s 16-7 SU and 16-6-1 ATS record away ‘between the threes’ (game spreads of +3 to -3 points). Meanwhile, Joe Willie’s old team shows up almost empty-handed from an ATS success standpoint: theJets have crashed and burned as December chalk off a SU loss versus a foe off a SU loss, going 0-8 ATS, and head coach Rex Ryan owns a poor 1-5 SU and ATS log off a double-digit loss. To make matters worse, the Jets also dress up in the same unfortunate role as the Titans today: NFL Game Fifteen home favorites in Last Home Games off a double-digit loss are a bankroll-depleting 6-31 ATS since 1980. Whew! Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 cements it as Eli and company manage to silence the Round Mound of Sound – for a little while, at least – by grounding the Jets today.
OAKLAND over Kansas City by 8
With the Broncos and Raiders losing and the Chargers and Chiefs winning, the West just got wilder. With only two games left on the slate and the division looking up at the Tebows, the ‘playoffs’ essentially begin this afternoon in Arrowhead for both KC and Oakland. Kudos to interim HC Romeo Crennel and newly inserted QB Kyle Orton for knocking off the Packers but can they change a series history that has seen the visitor win 12 of 17 SU while cashing 15 times? Orton’s 1-2 SU and ATS record (all as a favorite) versus the Raiders says no, as does KC’s 2-8 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of 2 or less points after pulling the rug out from an undefeated opponent (where else can you fi ndstats like this!). Worse yet, the last home game of the season has not been kind to KC supporters (0-4 SU and ATS) the past four years. Toss in Oakland’s 7-0 ATS log on the division highway off back-to-back SU losses along with a solid 6-0 ATS mark off three straight losses and you can see why we think the Raiders will be playing meaningful football on New Year’s day while rooting for the Chiefs to beat SNL’s favorite new whipping boy. At pick, plus or minus, look for the Raiders to avenge the 28-0 whitewash beating they took at home in late October– a game in which they actually won the stats battle.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 16, 2011
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets December 17-18
MARSHALL over Florida Int'l by 6
A bookend 3-0 start and fi nish propelled the 8-4 Golden Panthers to the postseason for a second straight year and now Mario Cristobal’s crew will look to build on last season’s 34-32 bowl win over Toledo. Not bad for a
team that was 17-52 SU between 2004 and 2009! The problem, though, is this year’s opponent has plenty of bowl class. Since becoming a lined-team in 1998, Marshall owns a 6-1 SU and ATS record on the alleys, including 4-1 SU and ATS when taking points. And speaking of class, while Doc Holliday’s squad was taking its medicine against West Virginia and Virginia Tech in non-conference affairs – as well as Houston and Southern Miss in leagueplay – the Panthers were facing the likes of Duke (a 31-27 loss) and Akron. In fact, the only non-conference team that FIU beat that had a winning record was a Louisville squad that also fell prey to Marshall. And while the Panthers did fi nish the season on that aforementioned 3-0 SU run, our MIDWEEK ALERT points out that they were outstatted in three of their final four games. Not so for Marshall, who closed out the regular season both 3-1 SU and ‘In The Stats.’ And from our classy PLAYBOOK.com database, which you will see plenty of this bowl season, here’s a trifecta that should garner a healthy return: 6-6 bowl dogs off back-to-back SU wins are 6-1 ATS while 6-6 bowl dogs versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are 7-1 ATS. In addition, sub .750 bowl favorites off back-to-back SU wins, with the last a revenge victory, are 6-28 ATS. With Cristobal 5-17 SU versus winning opposition in his career, we’ll back the team that closed like a race horse versus one that pulled up ‘ITS, ITS’ (In The Stats, In The Stretch). Grab the points as the wrong team is favored tonight in St. Pete.
PRO PICKS
WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 3
After riding a 4-game losing skid, the Jersey Giants awoke from the dead to steal a win at Dallas and now control their fate in the NFC East – despite owning the 3rd-worst defense in the league (392 YPG). With that comes thoughts of the origin of the Big Apple choke, or in this case ‘shoo fl y pie and apple pan dowdy.’ That’s because teams who upset the Cowboys are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their next game when facing a division foe coming off a loss. The Deadskins enter off a hard-fought 34-27 home loss to New England, the team’s 8th defeat in its last nine games, but their 3-0 ITS effort in the last three games tells us this bunch of native Americans has not tossed in the towel. Plus, you can rest assured that squinty-eyed head coach Mike Shanahan has not forgotten being embarrassed by the Giants at home in the season’s fi rst game, 28-14. We didn’t have to look long to find a treasure trove of numbers backing the visitors. Washington is 9-0 ATS away versus a division opponent off a road game, 12-1 ATS as December dogs off a loss when playing the role of avenging foe, and 5-1 ATS away from D.C. when taking on an NFC East adversary off a SU and ATS win. Need more? Coach Shanahan’s perfect 7-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or more points when his team owns a win percentage of less than .400 on the season cements it. You can call‘em red or you can call ‘em dead… but we think the ‘Skins are the play today.
San Diego over Baltimore by 10
Here we go, hopping back on the Chargers bandwagon. We realize that as long as Tebow is in the AFC West, the Chargers can’t win the division (as confi rmed by a higher power), but rest assured Philip Rivers won’t go down without a fi ght. Our NFL QB Club tells us that December has always been a month to remember for Rivers as he s a ‘Lexus’-like 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in the fi nal stanza of the year, including 3-0 SU and ATS as a dog. Our NFL Coaches League also reports that even Norv shines this time of year, posting a 5-0 ATS mark as a dog off back-to-back SU wins from Game Thirteen out in the regular season. The Bolts are also 9-0 ATS as dogs off back-to-back SU wins and 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six as home dogs. That ties in nicely to Baltimore’s 0-11 ATS mark as non-division road favorites off back-to-back SU wins versus .500 or less opposition. We may not have the catchy Christmas music that Lexus has but our AWESOME ANGLE can put a bow on this one as the Chargers make another patented ‘Stretch Run.’ In fact we’re skipping the small spot and heading right to the money line. We suggest you do the same.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 09, 2011
Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets for Week 13
PRO PICKS
TENNESSEE over New Orleans by 10
We know that the Saints are marching into Nashville with four straight wins and covers. But we bet you didn’t know that favorites off a SU and ATS home win which was preceded by a SU and ATS Monday night home win are just 2-14 ATS since 1990. The Saints are also a lax 2-9-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies and that fi ts like Obama’s birth certifi cate on a counterfeit printing press to the Titans’ 10-2-1 ATS mark as dogs off a SU dog win. Add Tenny’s 15-3 SU and ATS log at home off a SU win of less than 7 points versus a foe with revenge – including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS against non-division foes – to a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 series mark since 1996 and you can see why we’re calling for the outright Tennessee win. And for all of you ‘situational’ players, the Saints’ two-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South affords them the luxury of a trip-up while the Titans’ two-game deficit in the AFC South and battle for the Wildcard ensures a focused effort oday at LP Field. Grab the points but you won’t need ‘em as a rejuvenated Chris Johnson runs – and not marches – through the Saints secondary.
CHICAGO over DENVER by 7
Without Jay Cutler calling signals against KC last week, the Bears’ offense went into hibernation: 3 points, 181 total yards and 0-for-11 in 3rd-down situations. Now they have to travel to Mile High Stadium and try to corral a Broncos team that’s rolling off FIVE SU UNDERDOG WINS in a row. Yikes! However, even as Hollywood continues writing the script for ‘The Comeback Kid’ starring Denver QB Tim Tebow, our database reminds us that only three other teams have matched Denver’s streak and they went 1-2 SU and ATS intheir next game (0-2 SU and ATS when laying points). Those aren’t the only negative numbers saddling the Broncos today. The hosts are just 1-12 ATS in December off an NFC clash, and 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS all-time versus the NFC North. Chicago has dominated the series, going 7-1-1 ATS overall and cashing in three of the last four trips (one push) to the Rocky Mountains. Da Bears have also made the AFC West their bitches when playing off a SU loss, posting a confi dence-building 15-3 ATS record that tightens to a perfect 8-0
ATS away from the Windy City. A closer look at Denver’s come-from-behind win over Minnesota last week exposes the fact that John Fox’s squad was outgained by a whopping 153 yards. And to make matters even worse for the home team, Fox is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. We know it’s always risky taking on a wounded bear but, in the end, they’re the ones that are the meanest and the ones that bite the hardest. Look for Chicago to call on its 8th-ranked rush defense to turn back Tebow and company in this high-altitude upset.
GIANTS over Dallas by 8
Though many will expect the Giants to suffer a letdown after nearly derailing the Packers’ perfect season last week, we think the G-men will carry confi dence from that effort into this contest. The Cowboys take the
field off a bitter OT loss to Arizona (winning FG in regulation was nullifi ed when Dallas called for a timeout right before the kick) and won’t be riding high from the looks of the ATS archives. Not only are the Pokes a lifeless 0-11 ATS in December off a SU favorite loss versus an opponent playing with revenge, they’re also an unlucky 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS of late in Game Thirteen of the season. Some of that failure can be laid at the feet of Cowboys QB Tony Romo: he’s 19-2 SU as a starter in November but only 8-10 SU from December out. Eli Manning, fresh off a 347-yard, 4-TD passing performance against Green Bay, leads Big Blue into Big D knowing he’s gone 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS on the road versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. The Giants also boast a bankroll-building 9-0 ATS log as a December dog off a non-division game versus a foe off a loss. The clincher comes from our database as it reminds us that 6-6 teams in Game Thirteen of the season playing off a loss with revenge are 23-8 SU and ATS, including 11-1 ATS when not forced to lay points. Yes, we realize New York has dropped four games in row but when we toss in the Pokes’ recent troubles in this series (1-3 SU and ATS), we have no problem siding with the tall guys here.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
