Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, April 29, 2011


NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES


With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Tripped out favorites
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-13 ATS in these games.



Worse, if they dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map and out of the playoffs, going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Last year San Antonio and Utah were sent packing in this identical spot.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 16-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58% ATS proposition, going 31-21 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these pick-of-the-litter plays bark to the tune of 12-5 ATS, including 11-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 18-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 14-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

Use your head and play accordingly.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Monday, April 25, 2011


EIGHT DAYS ‘O WEAK… 2011 NBA ATS Playoff Update


If you enjoy betting the games and you are weak of heart, the 2011 NBA playoffs have been a torment of major proportions.

Charting results from the first eight days of action this playoff season, from Saturday April 16 through Saturday April 23, the results have been confounding to say the least.

Bookmaker’s delight

If you’re a veterinarian or a dog lover, you’ve likely been living in dog-pound heaven thus far as favorites have bit the bone, going 19-7 SU and 7-17-2 ATS.



Meanwhile, home teams are on a similar course as they stand 18-8 SU and an identical 7-17-2 ATS.

Magnifying the situation, favorites of six or more points are 10-3 SU and 1-12 ATS. Amazingly, seven of ten SU wins have been by an average 3-points off the line, meaning 70% of the straight-up winners results were a scant three-point shot away from a pointspread reversal.

Sour apple carts

Teams that had the rug pulled out on them as a playoff favorite have bounced back on the scoreboard - but not in the wallet - going 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS in follow up affairs.

That drops teams off a SU favorite apple cart loss to 2-11 ATS since midway of last year’s NBA playoffs.

Under slumber

Through the first eight days of the 2011 playoffs UNDER players have had a party, cashing 16 of 26 totals plays.

In games in which the posted total was 189 or higher points, the UNDER players have lost only three of 14 tickets.

And not surprisingly, favorites in games with a total of 189 or more are just 3-10-1 ATS.

Now, pop a nitroglycerin pill and get ready for another round of heart-pounding results in the NBA playoffs. The party is just beginning.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011


TRIPLE EXPOSURE


With the NBA regular season drawing to the finish line, and while we await the start of the 2011 NBA playoffs, let examine a favorite handicapping ploy that has served me well over the years at this stage of the campaign.

It all centers around team teams concluding the season that will be playing with same season triple revenge. This particular handicap works for two reasons. One –

Trips Is Enough

The fact of the matter is it’s not easy for one team to take another out four times in a row during the same season, especially during the late, late stages of the season.

According to our database, since 1991, teams playing with same season triple revenge are 57-100 SU and 84-65-1 ATS during the final two games of the season. That’s a sharp 56.3% win percentage for these hungry rats.

Better yet, dress them up as dogs in these games and they improve to 68-49-1 ATS, a 58.1% winning level.

The other reason these triple revenging dogs bark loud is complacency. Thus, reason two is -



Playing Down To The Level Of The Opposition

Most teams that have managed to triple up one opponent over the course of the season are either playoff bound or ultra-confident, whereas the victims are busy making tee-times.

Thus these opponents often times find themselves playing down to the level of the thrice-beaten opponent.

And if these season-ending triple revengers were dogs of eight or more points in their previous game they are a super-sharp 28-11 ATS in these games.

FYI: there is an eye-opening 17-1 ATS winning angle inside the 28-11 situation outlined above. I’ll save that beauty and reveal the parameters when and if any such situations arise this week inside one of my Guaranteed Best Bet selections.

Mark Them Down

Meanwhile, here are the six teams that will close out the 2011 season looking to avenge hat-trick defeats:

4/11 – Houston, Sacramento and Toronto
4/13 – New York, Phoenix and Toronto


Don’t trip up. Keep an eye on them and act accordingly. I’ll return with an NBA Playoff Primer later in the week…


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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