Friday, October 31, 2008

Marc Lawrence College Football Upsets for November 1

Connecticut Plus over West Virginia

Connecticut played to its two biggest strengths, superstar RB Donald Brown and a rock-ribbed defense, to engineer a 40-16 rout of Cincinnati last week and climb back into the thick of the Big East race.
However, that win garnered far less attention than West Virginia’s 34-17 beatdown of SEC power Auburn, a scenario that makes us like the Huskies even more in this matchup. The Mountaineers have been camped at home for their last four games (all wins) but the fact is first-year coach Bill Stewart is still a maiden away from Morgantown, losing SU as a road favorite against East Carolina and Colorado while scoring just 17 total points. By comparison, UConn’s Randy Edsall is a monster at home, going 12-3 ATS against conference opponents, including 7-1 if his foe is off a SU win. We don’t want to be accused of having a one-track mind but the previously mentioned ‘R’ word can’t be overlooked here. Last year’s horrifying 66-21 loss to the Mounties marked the most points allowed in Big East play under Edsall and you know he’s aching to settle the score. The Huskies’ stout 10-1 SU home record in November since 2002 tells us their pound of flesh is about to be served.

Last Week: 2-2 Season: 19-11



Pittsburgh Plus over NOTRE DAME

We got an email from Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt asking us to please start bashing him again. Why? Last week we got off his back for one issue and tried to pay him a compliment – then his Panthers went out and got eviscerated by mediocre Rutgers, 54-34 (Knights’ QB Mike Teel, who couldn’t throw a rock in the ocean all season, connected on a school record SIX touchdown passes). Meanwhile, Charlie Weis and rejuvenated Notre Dame were busy driving a 33-7 nail into former Irish leader Ty Willingham’s coaching coffin at Seattle. After those disparate results, it’s no surprise to see Weis and company laying 6 points at South Bend, right? Check out this info and your enthusiasm for the favorite may dim somewhat: Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS at home versus the Big East, 1-4 ATS home before back-to-back road games and the Weis-man is 3-9 ATS as home chalk off a win of 7 or more points. Whew! Pittsburgh is a ‘Play On’ team in this week’s ‘Puttin On The Stats’ and guess who Wanny made his Steel City coaching debut against back in 2005? That’s right, Notre Dame, who blasted the Panthers, 42-21, as 3-point road dogs. This looks like a dead-even matchup to us so we’ll pocket the points and pray.

Oregon Plus over CALIFORNIA

Ducks will be in attack formation following last week’s 54-20 demolition of Arizona State and own the firepower to plow through the remainder of their schedule. Mike Bellotti’s team has averaged an overpowering 30 PPG on the road during his tenure with Oregon and they’ll be thinking of last season’s first loss, a 31-24 setback to the Bears as 7-point favorites at Eugene. The feathered ones are a ‘Play On’ team this week, a lean thatlooks especially intelligent when we note California’s 3-9 SU and ATS mark as conference chalk of 7 or less points against an avenging foe. Add a dreadful
4-18 ATS record for Cal from Game Six out in the regular season since 2005d we’re feeling smarter by the minute. Bear… it’s what’s for dinner.


Wisconsin Plus over Michigan State

While the Spartans are still celebrating beating up on the neighborhood bullies, Wisconsin is in desperation mode. The Badgers need two more wins in their last four games to become bowl eligible, a surprising scenario considering their high early-season ranking. Wisky does fall into one of our favorite categories here: a long time series favorite now taking points. The boys from Madison have come favored in 10 of the last 11 confrontations, including the last seven in a row and actually own both the better offense and defense. The Spartans are a feeble 1-7-1 ATS laying 24 or less points at home to a foe off a SU win and just 1-5 ATS home after Michigan when tackling a foe off a DD win. With Michigan State playing its 10th straight game without the benefit of a week of rest, we’ll have to side with the underdog Badgers here.




Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

10 Golden Rules of Handicapping

A question I’m commonly asked is, “What does is take to be a good football handicapper?”

For openers, there is no one-thing that makes a person a good handicapper. It’s a combination of factors, beginning fi rst with putting as many edges in your favor as possible. That, along with standing by a method of tried and true practices, can put you into a position to win.

A few years ago I published a piece titled ‘7 Strategies To A Winning Season’. Using that as the premise for this treatise, let me share my 10 GOLDEN RULES OF A GOOD HANDICAPPER

1. ALWAYS RESPECT THE ODDSMAKER.
Remember this, and never forget – the oddsmaker is the enemy, and must be respected. Don’t get drawn into a battle of testosterone, making believe your line is better than his. He’s paid to put a solid number on games, and does it exceptionally well. Concentrate on handicapping the game with the line he puts out, not with the line you feel it should be. Let your ability, not your ego, be the determining factor in your success.

2. THE NAME OF THE GAME IS VALUE – WITHOUT IT YOU CAN’T WIN.
Do not settle on a game just because it handicaps. To be a good play it must have line value. This also means not abusing good numbers (primarily 3’s and 7’s). If you have a good underdog that was taking 3 points earlier in the week, do not take less on game day. There will always be another game, with value, down the road. Handicappers who take bad numbers become bad handicappers.

3. WINNING TEAMS FINDS WAYS TO WIN; LOSING TEAMS FIND WAYS TO LOSE.
By concentrating on winning teams, in the right situations, you increase your chances of winning. That’s because winning teams don’t beat themselves (turnovers. penalties, etc.). On the fl ip side, losing teams are losers because the make more mistakes at crucial times in a game. Look to ‘play on’ winning teams as underdogs, and to ‘play against’ losing teams as favorites.

4. LEARN TO BECOME A CONTRARIAN.
Understand that bookmakers make nice livings by taking a good majority of action from ‘squares’, or people who bet on popular public teams. By looking to ‘fade’ these teams you not only put yourself in better position to win by getting better odds, you also put yourself in a higher win percentage bracket. If a game looks too obvious, look the other way.

5. STATISTICS DON’T LIE.
Statistics report strengths and weaknesses in teams. Some teams may win games with poor stats but it is only a matter of time before their poor performance on the playing fi eld catches up with their winloss record. By fi nding one teams strength, and identifying another team’s weaknesses, you can get a feel for hidden advantages.

6. LETDOWNS AND LOOKAHEADS.
Football teams are human, and because they are they have feelings. When one team comes off a huge effort they can easily have a letdown the next games. Conversely, if they have a huge lookahead game up next (a primary rival, revenge from a humiliating loss, etc.) they often times are not as fully focused as they should be.

7. YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOUR INFO.
Because the foundation for handicapping is putting as many edges in your favor as possible, it’s important to seek good, reliable information. In this day and age of the internet and electronic communication, there is a world of winning information out there waiting to be discovered. The more you learn, the better your chances of success.

8. INJURIES – ALWAYS TAKE 'EM WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
The single largest factor in early line moves is injuries. The ‘Wise Guys’ live and die for them. When they get wind of a twisted knee, or a lingering hangnail, they jump on it like a bank robber left alone overnight in\ a vault. The problem, though, is once you have had a chance to play an ‘injury game’ the line value is no longer there (see Rule No. 2). Remember: every team capable replacements waiting on a chance to enter the starting lineup. The same backups were star athletes on their high school teams. As my good friend, the late, great Richard Klamian contended, it’s only when ‘cluster injuries’ hit that a team has a diffi cult time carrying out its game plan. When it comes to injuries, it's caveat emptor – buyer beware.

9. DEVELOP A STYLE AND PERFECT IT.
There are three primary forms of handicapping that exist today – Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To live by one alone can be dangerous to your wealth. The best handicappers I know incorporate all three of these aspects into their repertoire. I am primarily a ‘technical handicapper’. It’s the area I attack the hardest, and with them most fervor. Learn to develop a style most comfortable to your approach and perfect it. But be sure to incorporate the other two methods into your ‘style’. They, too, need to be examined.

10. BE WILLING TO GO THE EXTRA YARD.
If you want to succeed, you have to be willing to pay a price. It doesn’t matter the profession or where you are in your stage of life, you must absolutely be willing to outwork your opponent if you wish to continue to succeed. By being willing to burn the midnight oil and remaining steadfast in your beliefs and your work ethic, you will succeed.

There you have it, my take on what it takes to be a successful handicapper. Oh yeah, perhaps the most important principle of all is to practice the GOLDEN RULE in life – DO UNTO OTHERS AS YOU WOULD HAVE THEM DO UNTO YOU. By doing so you will learn to respect not only the aforementioned oddsmaker, but, more importantly, yourself as well…


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Friday, October 24, 2008

Marc Lawrence NFL Week 8 Upsets

Arizona over CAROLINA by 7

Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s 10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head coach John Fox trots off to the finance company as a home favourite in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today. We’re raising Arizona.

NY Giants over PITTSBURGH by 10

As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know the Giants’ affinity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.


Last Week: 2-0 Season: 10-6


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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