Friday, October 17, 2008
Marc Lawrence College Football Upsets for October 18, 2008
Virginia Tech Plus over BOSTON COLLEGE
Despite recent road wins over North Carolina and Nebraska, Frank Beamer’s Hokies find themselves taking a pair of points from the Beantown Boys here, the first time that BC has been installed as chalk in 14 consecutive contests between these former Big East powers. Both teams enter off a bye week but the Eagles thrive in that role at home, posting a 6-1 ATS mark at Alumni Stadium following a week-long nap. Virginia Tech counters with a 5-0 spread record playing on the road against a conference foe seeking revenge (Hokies beat BC 30-16 in last year’s ACC title game) and also owns a superb 14-2 ATS mark away off a double-digit home victory over a lined non-conference foe. In truth, each team is backed by numerous positive pointspread trends but with Beamer showing up in his preferred role as road underdog (8-1 ATS L9) – and hungry for regular season double-revenge – we’ll gobble up whatever points we can get with the Hokies today.
Last Week: 4-0 Season: 16-6
Missouri Plus over TEXAS
The Longhorns’ scintillating win over No. 1 Oklahoma last Saturday was not only one of the most exciting college football games of the 2008 season, it also proved that a program devoid of high profile
superstars could play inspired TEAM football to topple an ‘unbeatable’ Sooners squad. And what reward does Bevo reap for accomplishing this stunning feat? A trio of gut-busting games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech! “It was one of the greatest football games I’ve ever seen,” said Texas coach Mack Brown after the heavyweight battle, a victory that could have historical
significance for the Longhorns. The last time Texas came out of the OU game undefeated (2005), it won the Rose Bowl and a National title. Well, don’t look for that to happen this year – not through the
treacherous Big 12 – and don’t be shocked if Bevo takes a stun gun to the forehead right here. BRILLIANT DISGUISE is at work in favor of Missouri, a team that sports a flawless 8-0 ATS record on the road versus opponents off consecutive SUATS wins. Tiger coach Pinkel is also 6-1 ATS against foes off a SU dog win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the opponent has a winning record. We’re sure the more keen-eyed of you are already shouting, “Hey, wait! Missouri was unbeaten and got deep-sixed by Okie State. Shouldn’t they be a BUBBLE BURST fade?” No, because the scenario only works against FAVORED teams that were 5-0 or greater and tasted defeat for the first time. Even though Texas has covered eight of the last nine games after Oklahoma, we think Chase Daniel and company can win this outright. The new No. 1 goes down.
VIRGINIA Plus over North Carolina
Virginia coach Al Groh’s realtor must be feeling a bit down right now. After the Wahoos got dissected by Duke while opening the season 1-3, ‘Groh Must Go’ banners were seen all around Charlottesville and a change of address seemed like a certainty for the eight-year Cavalier mentor. But when Virginia registered a pair of shocking upsets over Maryland and East Carolina, Groh’s ‘For Sale’ signs disappeared from his front yard. We don’t know where they went but they may as well stay in storage: Virginia is 9-1 ATS kickin’ it with the Heels (8-0 L8 home) and the Cavs have cashed to the tune of 7-1 ATS as ACC home dogs of 5 or more points. Carolina’s gaudy 5-1 record is betrayed by a mirror-opposite 1-5 mark ‘In The Stats’ and the Heels have fallen into a lifeless 0-5 ATS pit when playing a conference team the week after meeting a non-conference adversary. THIS JUST IN: teams who beat Notre Dame and come favored in their next games are just 4-16 ATS versus a conference foe of < .666. The Cavs have rolled up 66 points in their last two games so we’ll stay along for the ride.
Baylor Plus over OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma’s upset loss to Texas last week not withstanding, football in the state of Oklahoma has been delightful this season. The three Football Bowl Subdivision (there’s that dang title, again) teams from Merle Haggard’s beloved state – OU, OSU and Tulsa – are 17-1 combined in 2008. The task at hand this week for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys will be to keep focused on the task at hand, namely the Baylor Bears, and not on a date with No. 1 ranked Texas next week. Good luck. For openers, Art Briles has done a splendid job in his first year at the helm with the Bears as they have already won as many games as they did last season. It’s because his troops are +53 net YPG on the year, a dramatic improvement from last year’s -113 net YPG figure. Aside from the Longhorn look ahead, Gundy battles a huge letdown possibility given the fact he is 0-4 ATS in games off an underdog win and his team is 0-8-1 SU and 2-7 ATS games after meeting Missouri. It’s simply too much of a BRILLIANT DISGUISE for any team to overcome. We’re going Bear hunting this week.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Brilliant Disguise
"The gypsy swore our future was right.
But come the wee wee hours, well maybe baby the gypsy lied.
So when you look at me, you better look hard and look twice.
Is that me baby, or just a brilliant disguise."
Deception can be a dangerous thing. Superstar songwriter Bruce Springsteen said it best when he penned these words... "God have mercy on the man who doubts what he's sure of."
What a powerful phrase. To travel in the shoes of a man whose most assured beliefs are lined with doubt would be to talk the talk without walking the walk. It just doesn't sell.
Neither does walking around with your chest sticking out, while accepting accolades on an achievement that may well have been clearly over one's head. This especially holds true in college football where, often times these types of teams carry a masquerade of being better than they are, albeit for the sake of one positive performance.
To site the perfect example, last season seven college football teams were fortuitous enough to knock off opponents that had entered the contest sporting a 5-0 or better record. Collectively they combined to go just 2-5 ATS in the following game. The beauty, though, occurred when Louisville upended a then 7-0 Cincinnati squad as 10-point dogs. The linemaker somehow became immediately infatuated with the Cardinals when he installed them as a road favorite the next week at Connecticut. As expected, Louisville crapped their pants when the Cardinal lost, 21-17, in their brilliantly disguised role as road chalk!
All of which leads us to the following handicapping angle...
PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in their last game.
What we have here are the makings of a letdown of major proportions. That's evidenced by the fact that teams in this 'play against' role are 62-41 ATS, including 49-29 ATS if they did not enjoy a week off after the big upset. Oklahoma State and Texas will be in masquerade this week.
To make matters even more interesting, if their opponent checks in with a win percentage of .600 or greater we zoom to 20-4 ATS by fading these brilliantly disguised conceal artists. Donning the facial mask this week will be Texas, who upended previously unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma last week. Oh, and by the way, if our puffed-up favorite happened to cover the spread by more than 14 points in its upset win, we enter the NEAR-PERFECT ZONE, as these plays are 14-1 ATS since 1980. Can you say “Go, Tigers, go!”
It's like Bruce said about people in these types of situations... "Now look at me baby, struggling to do everything right. And then it all falls apart, when out go the lights. I'm just a lonely pilgrim, I walk this world in wealth. I wanna, if it's you I don't trust, cause I damn sure don't trust myself."
Pretty powerful stuff, to be sure. No disguises, just the perfect twist to a brilliant handicapping angle...
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Marc Lawrence’s NFL Upsets for Week 6
Cincinnati Plus over JETS
Bretty and the Jets hit the Bye Week in dramatic fashion when they disposed of the Cardinals, 56-35, two weeks ago. It marked the first time in QB Favre’s career that he tossed six touchdown passes in a game. A deeper look inside the Flyboys’ numbers, though, tells a different story. It seems this 2-2 squad has outgained only one opponent on the playing field (Miami, by 16 yards) and is ranked 31st (2nd worst) in the league in pass defense. That promises to be enough to awaken Carson Palmer and the Bengal passing game from its season-long slumber. Further assurance comes from our trusty database as it reminds us that 0-4 or worse winless road dogs are 43-21-4 ATS in non-division games since 1980. The Jets’ 1-9 ATS mark in October against non-division foes off a loss and Cincy’s 5-0ATS road dog log when winless from Game Two out versus a non-division foe (see Dallas last week) makes for a nice combination. Sorry Jets fans.
St. Louis Plus over WASHINGTON
Wow! What a run. As if beating the Cowboys in Dallas (as a double-digit dog) wasn’t enough, the Redskins go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles (as a touchdown dog). Their reward this week, should they decide to accept it, is to scale over a two-touchdown impost against a well-rested crew with a new coach and a fresh attitude. Gulp. Rest assured, it won’t be easy. For openers the Skins have failed three times in a row (SU and ATS) in games off a double-digit revenge victory when facing an opponent off back-to-back losses. Worse, they are 0-8 SU and ATS after beating the Eagles when facing a sub .667 opponent. FYI: they were favored in 7 of those games. Add in the Awesome Angle on page 2 and we would not be at all surprised should the Rams catch the Redskins taking a well-deserved nap today. To that we say bow-wow!
Jacksonville Plus over DENVER
Form takes on function in this setting and we’ll opt for the latter. That’s because the function of the Jaguars is to bounce back in a big way after blowing SU as a favorite the previous contest. That’s confi rmed by their 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS mark in these games when installed as a dog or favorite of less than 4 points. They are also 9-0 ATS on the road off a spread loss of 10 or more points when taking on an opponent they beat in their most recent meeting. With Denver in lousy current form – a 4-1 squad that is allowing 390 YPG – look for the Broncos to dive to 0-10 ATS as a home favorite off a SU favorite win. Through geometric design we have built our case and it comes up Jacksonville.
Last Week: 0-1 Season: 6-5
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
