Friday, October 03, 2008

Marc Lawrence College Football Upsets for October 4, 2008

SOUTH CAROLINA Plus over Ole Miss

What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008 ‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier owns a profit table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the conference road in his college head-coaching career. The old’ ball coach may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he finally got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the fi eld for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense (completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more). That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites. in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators, the Rebels’ feet don’t fi gure to hit the ground here until they go into the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win). Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY.


NEBRASKA Plus over Missouri

Laugh if you want. The truth is No. 3 Missouri has beaten a trio of 98-pound weaklings after opening the season with a diffi cult 10-point win over Illinois. Translation: sure the Tigers are good but they’re
going to have to step WAY UP to prove it here today. The Corn Boys have a bumper crop of good stats tucked in their silo: they’re 6-0 ATS playing in their fourth straight at Lincoln, 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS taking on Big 12 adversaries when playing off if three in a row at home and 10-1 SU and ATS home versus undefeated conference opponents. Whew! The big, bad Tigers are a woeful 0-3-1 lately as double-digit road chalk and they’ve covered just ONCE if their last five tries coming off a bye week. True, Nebraska failed its first major test against Virginia Tech but the Huskers were undone by two Hokie trademarks, special teams and defense… not exactly Missouri’s forte. With Nebraska the subject of this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT, we can’t fade numbers like these – especially when the series host has cashed six straight tickets. Children of the Corn turn Memorial Stadium into a house of horrors for Mizzou today.



KENTUCKY Plus over Alabama

Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on this matchup by at least a field goal. After such a monster effort, Saban will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the first five games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and 5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are 11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX FAT CAT fade? Only one way to look here.


Navy Plus over AIR FORCE

Much-maligned Midshipmen defense put a halt to any ‘Riley Skinner for Heisman’ talk after they forced the Wake Forest QB into four killer turnovers in last Saturday’s jaw-dropping 24-17 win at Winston-Salem. The Middies’ ground attack was at full force, rushing for 292 yards against a Deacon defense that limited Florida State to just 118 rushing yards a week earlier. Now the Middies set sail for Colorado Springs to defend their Commander In Chief title for the sixth straight year against military rival Air Force. Navy’s ATS credentials are among the nation’s best: 31-7-1 as a road dog versus an opponent off a SU loss and 16-3 ATS in their last 19 skirmished with military foes (11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS last 11!). The Falcons are off to a fi ne 3-1 start but they gained just 191 total yards and 9 first downs in last week’s 30-23 loss to Utah. In fact, the Flyboys have been outstatted by over 400 yards in their past two games and have dropped FIVE IN A ROW both SU and ATS in their series with Navy. If it ain’t broke, we’re not fixin’ it.


N TEXAS over Fla International

There are just some things in life you learn never to do. Like hopping a train going faster than you. Or swimming with sharks. Or telling your wife her sister looks hot. They can all put you in intensive care. So too can betting on a road favorite that has won just TWO of its last TWENTY EIGHT road games – and laying a touchdown to boot. Granted, FIU is coming off a rare road win and UNT is not much, but these days even a pigeon can make a deposit on a Ferrari. What say we make like Steve Miller and ‘fly like an Eagle’ tonight?


Last Week: 3-0 Season: 9-4


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Wake Up Call

“Wake up, wake up…
I know I make mistakes
I'm living life day to day
It's never really easy, but it's ok.”

According to Webster’s dictionary the word REST can take on many meanings. For individuals it can mean to relax or take time off; a state or period of refreshing freedom from exertion. It can also be a stopping place for shelter or relaxation. Or perhaps something used for support.

As a verb it can be used to describe a state of tranquility, or to restore energy by means of relaxation. Verbalized, it could depict one who is dead and free from earthly concerns.

For handicapping purposes we’ve come to realize that ‘rest’ can be a strong edged tool. That’s because most teams benefit from having a week of rest through the course of the season. It allows the batteries to re-charge. It also enables injuries to heal.

While examining the rest factor in the NFL, I came across some eye-opening results. For instance, did you know that losing teams fare better than winning teams when playing with the benefit of a week of rest? They do. According to our powerful database, entering this season and since 1980 teams with a win percentage of .333 or less are 117-92-1 (56%) on the blind with a week of rest (6-3 last season). Those with a win percentage of more than .333 are moneyburners at 215-226-9 ATS over the same span.

Better yet, .333 or less rested home teams are 68-51-1 ATS. And if they are hosting a division foe they improve to 40-25 ATS, or a 61.5% winning play.

Then again, we can really get down to separating the good sleepers from the insomniacs by simply taking as many points as possible when our rested teams are at home. By ignoring win percentages and concentrating on taking points, we find any division home dog with rest to be a 40-26 ATS winning system, including 24-9 ATS when the home puppy is off a SU and ATS loss. And the more points we take the better as dog of more than 5 points are 12-2 ATS in this particular role.

The bottom line to rested dogs in the NFL comes down to this: Put them at home and feed them as many bones (re: points) as you can and you’ll have a content canine. The best of all roles, though, occurs when we -

PLAY ON any NFL home dog of 6 or more points with a week of rest

In its simplest form, these puppies are 29-9 ATS in all games since 1980. Put them up against an opponent that won 14 or fewer game the previous year and they improve to 25-5 ATS. And if these same guys did not lose to the spread by more than 10 points in their last game they are 22-2 ATS! Last year the New York Jets were 9-point home dogs against Pittsburgh when they shocked the Steelers, winning 19-16 in overtime. This week the Miami Dolphins do the honor when they host San Diego.

To find the 17-0 ATS perfect subset inside this angle simply log online to http://www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the 2008 BLACK BOOK link inside the HANDICAPPER’S LOUNGE.

So while it’s never wise to rouse a sleeping dog, our best advice is to let him wake up on his own. Chances are, with plenty of rest, he’ll wake up with plenty of vim and vigor…


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Saturday, September 27, 2008

Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets Week 4

Browns Plus over BENGALS

A battle of second-rate 0-3 squads pits Ohio’s worst in a matchup of division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7 points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offing and the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look for Romeo to come calling today.



Texans Plus over JAGUARS

Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard field goal at the buzzer lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their first win of the campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses. We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing. No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off an away game. Take Tex.

Falcons Plus over PANTHERS

Panthers let us down in a major way last week when, after jumping out to a 10-0 lead at Minnesota, they then no-showed the final 40 minutes of the game. With that we have no choice but to fade them in their non-desirable role aschalk. That’s confi rmed by John Fox’s 3-9 ATS record as a division home favorite, including 1-5 when laying more than 6 points. In somewhat of a surprise, the rebuilding Falcons will look to improve to 3-1 (or better) through the first four games of the season for the 4th time in the last five years with a win here today. Averaging 55 yards more than they allow per game against an opponent that surrenders 23 YPG more than it gains, another 3-1 start is a distinct possibility. You know what to do.

Last Week: 2-1 Season: 4-3


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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