Friday, September 26, 2008
Marc Lawrence College Upsets for September 27
Alabama Plus over GEORGIA
A possible preview of the SEC Conference championship game here. Alabama coach Nick Saban has the Tide rolling full speed ahead right now, exceeding just about everyone’s expectations (Bama ranked #24 in preseason) while Georgia looks as talented, strong and deep as any program in the country. Saban’s bunch made this one a real dogfight last year, losing 26-23 at Tuscaloosa, and they’ve snarled their way to a 9-0-1 mark as dogs of 6 > points off BB wins. Saban also has a 10-0-1 ATS card up his sleeve when Bama dresses up as a conference dog with revenge off a conference win taking on a foe off a SU win. Georgia’s Mark Richt is just 1-5 ATS between the hedges off consecutive away games and 3-7 ATS at home before a revenger (UGA has Tennessee next). Alabama has taken
the bullet in three straight meetings but appears to be a young team on the rise under Saban (only 9 seniors on roster), capable of matching up physically with Georgia’s superb athletes. Put a leash on them dawgs… the tide’s coming in.
MICHIGAN Plus over Wisconsin
Okay, let’s have a show of hands. How many of you have already sh**canned the Wolverines? We thought so. However, as handicappers, we have to be a bit more forgiving in our evaluation of a team’s weekly performance and right now we know that Joe Public thinks of Michigan as little more than Big 10 road kill. Can you handle the truth? The Maize-and-Blue has won 16 of the last 20 clashes with Wisky outright – and they were chalk in all 20 games! We love dominating dogs that have been favored forever in a series, especially when their foes own a 1-5 ATS mark against revenging conference opponents. Both squads come in off a week of rest and have performed well in that role (Wisconsin 5-1 ATS, Michigan 4-1-1 ATS). Rich Rodriguez has a solid defense at his disposal so if he can just get the offense to cut down on stupid penalties and critical turnovers, the homeboys can bury the Badgers in the Big House. This just in from our DID YOU KNOW library: Rodriguez is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last ten tries as a conference dog. Like the old cliché says, this one will be decided by the team that wants it most… and Richie Rich needs today’s game like a vampire needs blood
UCLA Plus over Fresno State
The Bruins were brought down and fi eld-dressed by Arizona last week, bringing UCLA’s point deficit for its last two games (both losses) to 90-10 – figures that make the squad’s season-opening defeat of Tennessee seem like a distant mirage. However, against the Wildcats, the Bruin were without their top QBs, top two running backs, best pass receiver, starting center and starting tight end. Whew! Coach Rick Neuheisel did fi nd some solace in his team’s ability to fight into the fourth quarter against Zona after they had been chased out of Provo just after the coin toss. “Those who stay and continue to work will be rewarded,” said Neuheisel and we’re not about to give up on Ricky boy just yet… not with UCLA logging a 7-2 ATS mark versus the WAC. We’ve already told you that OT winners are bad news if they head out on the highway in their next game (52-74-2 ATS entering this season) and Fresno comes to town off one of the wildest OT wins we’ve ever witnessed, a 55-54 barnburner over Toledo
that made the Bulldogs the fi rst ranked team ever to win at the Glass Bowl. Pat Hill’s team has not cashed many checks as non-conference chalk, though, going just 3-10 ATS (including an awful 0-3 road record). It’s going to take some courage on your part but we look for a bruised Bruins bounce-back tonight.
Last Week: 1-1 Season: 6-4
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Prove It All Night
"But if dreams came true, oh, wouldn't that be nice
But this ain't no dream we're living out through tonight
Girl, you want it, you take it, you pay the price
Prove it all night, prove it all night."
My, how the times have changed. There was a time, what now seems way back, when Monday Night Football was the marquee game of the week in the NFL. Back when Frank Gifford, Dandy Don Meredith and Howard Cosell battled over airtime in a revolutionary three-man booth. Back when Cosell used Monday nights as a podium to pontificate on an array of sports issues. Back when 9:00 PM on the East Coast meant most televisions were tuned in to ABC. Back when home dogs barked louder than ever. Yeah, Mondays were the night and the time was right.
It's now 2008 where Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Tony Kornheiser occupy the Monday Night booth inside the studios at ESPN. Their predecessors, Al Michaels and John Madden are working a day in advance, broadcasting Sunday Night games on NBC. Warning: if you tune in at 9:00 PM on Mondays you will have missed the first 20 minutes of the game. Nevertheless, as watered down as it has become, Monday Night Football still makes a big splash when it comes to television ratings and games of importance on the NFL scales of exposure.
Because players enjoy being 'on stage', Monday Night Football is still a time to shine in front of peers and football fans alike. And for handicappers in search of winning edges, Monday Night Football still affords opportunities galore.
One of my favorite plays on Monday Night Football involves home teams returning off back-to-back road games. That's because, since 1980, teams in this situation are 54-36-1 ATS – or 60% ATS on the blind. However, by applying an added dimension we can enhance our chance of winning if we were to -
PLAY ON any NFL Monday Night home team off back to back road games versus an opponent off a home game
By following the criteria above we have a neat 39-20-1 ATS winning edge. Better yet, make sure we are a worthy team (win percentage greater than .400) and we improve those numbers to 32-13-1 ATS. Best of all, put the worthy home team up against an opponent off a division home game and we soar to new heights, going 20-3-1 ATS.
Here is the list of teams that will be out to PROVE IT ALL NIGHT this 2008 NFL season: 9/29 Pittsburgh, 10/13 Cleveland, 10/20 New England, 11/10 Arizona, 11/24 New Orleans, 12/1 Houston and 12/8 Chicago. Mark down the dates now, because as 'The Boss' says, "If you want it, you take it, you pay the price. Prove it all night. Prove it all night..."
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Playbook NFL Upsets for Week 3
Houston Plus over TENNESSEE
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefit of an extra wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that’s a nice handicapping combination. That’s confirmed by the fact that teams in this league that have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the benefit of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs this game like blood given Tennessee’s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite.Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.
New Orleans Plus Over DENVER
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week’s game away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan’s job this week will be to keep his team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.
Carolina Plus Over MINNESOTA
The Vikings were many a ‘Wise Guys’ choice to win the NFC North Division while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it’s safe to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith’s back this week and these Cats
are lovin’ it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you’d be wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!
Last Week: 1-1 Season: 2-2
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
