Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, October 02, 2015

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets, Oct. 3-4

Arkansas over TENNESSEE by 3

We had the Hogs in this spot last week and they failed to deliver the money when Texas A&M blew a game-winning field goal and sent the game to overtime – where the Aggies won by 7 points. But we’re right back on the Razorbacks here versus an opponent who, for the second time this season, had a statement-making win in their grasp but let it slip away. Yes, Tennessee keeps finding new ways to lose games in heart-breaking fashion: last week the Gators grabbed the lead with a 63-yard TD pass from Will Grier to Antonio Calloway with 1:26 left on 4th-and-14 to overcome a 27-14 deficit. Then the Vols saw a 55-yard FG go inches wide on the final play of the game. Wow...all this on the heels of losing in double overtime to Oklahoma two weeks prior after blowing a 17-0 lead! Bad enough that Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS as chalk after facing Florida but last Saturday’s Gator gut-wrencher at the Swamp could put this young Vols team in a serious tailspin. That’s not a prescription for success against a hungry, pissed-off Arkansas squad that’s gone 7-2 ATS of late in this series, including 5-1 ATS when placed in the role of underdog. If that’s not enough to make you go hog-wild in tonight’s game at Neyland Stadium, there’s always The Clincher: College Football teams off a SUATS loss who faced the toughest schedule in the nation last year are 21-6 SUATS since 1980 when playing off back-to-back SUATS losses, including 17-2 ATS when facing a .750 or less opponent.

NEW York Giants over Buffalo by 8

Don’t take this the wrong way. The Bills have been good to us this season and we certainly hate to bite the hand that feeds us. But from a handicapping perspective, sometimes “you gotta do what you gotta do”. After opening the season in grand style with a huge win at home over Indianapolis, Buffalo returns home off back-to-back division duels with Miami and New England. Sure, the Bills are 24-6 ATS after facing the Dolphins when taking on a losing foe. But this is Rex Ryan’s team and he is just 4-5 SUATS in games after facing the Fish. That Ryan is also just 8-14-2 ATS against the NFC, including 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS the last five, serves us well, too. In addition, teams with new coaches, off a SU division upset win, are 11-26 SU and 11-22-4 ATS in their next game when facing a non-division foe off a win since 2000. Enter the Giants, off Thursday’s much needed win over the Redskins, sporting a neat 7-1 ATS road record in games off back-to-back home contests. The G-Men are also 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus AFC East opposition. With Buffy just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in this series, we ultimately turn it over to The Clincher: The Giants are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their next game after playing on Thursdays.

Miami over New York Jets by 7

Look out London... here they come. Get ready for some early morning NFL football when these two teams kick off at 9:30 AM ET (or sun rise on the West Coast) In the first of three scheduled NFL games at Wembley Stadium this season. Today’s matchup represents the first divisional battle in London with Miami making its third trip across the pond, with the Jets flying over for the first time ever. The Fish cashed the chips in each of their previous two visits to London and now take flight in a state of fright following last week’s home-opening debacle against Buffalo. It sets the table for today’s fray, though, as NFL teams arriving in London, off a SU favorite loss in its last game, are 4-1 SU and ATS. On the flip side, the Flyboys are just 7-14-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a division favorite. With the Dolphins 3-0 SUATS as dogs with revenge in this series, look for the pressure of playing away from South Beach to take a bit of heat away from Joe Philbin’s toasted fanny here in this tea-and-crumpets breakfast at Wembley. And if that’s not enough, there is always The Clincher: Miami is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in games with a losing record under Philbin, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when off a loss (6-0 ATS during the first half of the season.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, September 23, 2015

College and Pro Upsets—Sept. 26 Weekend

East Carolina over VA Tech by 7

Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us. Fool us nine times, shame on the men who married Zsa Zsa Gabor. As she put it, “I was a marvelous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man I keep his house.” Well, it appears Frank Beamer has taken a page out of Zsa Zsa’s book as he is just 2-9 ATS in his last 11 tries as a road favorite,
including 0-3 SUATS when playing off an away game. And this ridiculous line must have Va Tech’s name and past reputation written all over it as the Pirates are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games, with only one loss coming by more than 5 points. Yes, after bowling each of the last three years, Ruffi n McNeil’s men find themselves in a 1-2 hole to start the season but there should be no panic as the Pirates are 17-12 SU and 21-8 ATS in games with a losing record since 2005, including 16-3 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. And don’t forget: McNeil is 5-0 ATS in his last five versus the ACC and 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Even series history sides with ECU as the Pirates are 5-1-1 ATS since this matchup reconvened in 2007 after a seven-year hiatus. And while Green Acres isn’t the place to be for Zsa Zsa’s sister, Eva, Greenville certainly isn’t the right spot for Beamer’s boys this last Saturday in September. Not with the Hokies staring dead-ahead to a revenger against Pitt and this word from The Clincher: Va Tech is 0-10-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points versus an avenging opponent off a SU loss.

Arkansas over Texas A&M by 6

The Jerry’s World series has Arkansas a touchdown underdog, which is almost a 12-point swing from the preseason line offered around in Vegas. The Razorbacks were #18 in the preseason AP poll while the Aggies were unranked, but after back-to-back losses by the Hogs, they’re now a public fade. That’s a major mistake we’ll jump on. Arkansas has covered six of seven in the series and won the money in their last five conference revengers. With the Hogs currently at 1-2 on the season and A&M having beaten them each of last three years, the Aggies’ focus – at least from the players perspective – has changed and instead finds them looking ahead to back-to-back-to-back revengers versus Mississippi State, Alabama and Ole Miss. In addition, Texas A&M is also 1-5 ATS their last six at neutral sites, 1-5 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 7 points and 3-8 ATS away from home off back-to-back home games. And did we mention that Kevin Sumlin is 7-16-1 ATS as a favorite versus a conference foe with revenge, including 0-12 ATS when favored by less than 14 points?

The Fresno St over SAN JOSE ST by 3

This makes it official – a WTF hat trick to close out the day! It shouldn’t come as a surprise since both of these teams have been major disappointments this season: Fresno’s lone win came against Abilene Christian while the Spartans scratched the win column against New Hampshire. Not much else has gone right for either squad, although our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us the Bulldogs played much closer in last week’s 21-point loss to Utah (lost stats, 380-365) than the scoreboard indicated. San Jose State returns home after road losses to Air Force and Oregon State, but an ugly 3-11 ATS failure as home chalk since 2008 – including 1-6 ATS when favored by 8 or fewer points – tells us the Spartans might be better off not unpacking their suitcases. Face it: Fresno State has won 16 of the last 19 series meetings, and we get the Bulldogs as underdogs against a foe they’ve dominated. Eight straight losses by the Spartans to FBS foes cements it – the points are the play in this college nightcap.

Pro Pick

Cincinnati over BALTIMORE by 6

Let’s see. A Game Three showdown featuring division rivals, one 0-2 and the other 2-0. What do we have in this situation, you ask? Not much says our well-intended database as it reports home teams in this spot are just 8-7 ATS since 1980. What we have, though, are some solid numbers in the Bengals favor as they are 13-8 SU and 14-6-1 ATS of late in this series, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS off a win, and 4-0 SUATS the last four games overall. Adding to the Ravens frustration is their 1-10 ATS mark as home chalk before playing Pittsburgh. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton’s nifty 6-2-2 ATS career mark against winless teams is also noted. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t inform you that undefeated dogs in Game Three of the season are 8-0 ATS in division games since 2006. Back the better team getting points. It works.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Marc Lawrence College and Pro Upsets, Weekend of Sept. 19

AUBURN over LSU by 6
Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson rallied his team with a 10-yard TD pass
with under a minute remaining to send last week’s game to OT,
and the defense took over from there in a heart-stopping win over
Jacksonville (as a 40-point favorite). However, it makes you wonder –
what did QB Nick Marshall mean to this team? Now 2-0 with a pair
of 7-point wins, Aubbie is 0-2 ITS and averaging just 364 YPG (down
from 493 YPG in the fi
rst two seasons under Gus Malzahn). Johnson
ve interceptions in the fi
rst two games) needs to get better quickly
with a trip into Death Valley this week as LSU is looking for payback
from a 41-7 pasting laid on them by Auburn last season. So what
we have here is a PLAYBOOK shocker: Take the Points! Before your
jaw hits the table, remember we’re talking about a quality dog off a
despicable performance and Malzahn is 9-3 ATS when getting points,
3-0 ATS
versus undefeated foes. More numbers to back it
up: LSU is
1-8 ATS
as home chalk of 7 points or more and Les Miles
is just 8-22-1 against the number as a conference home favorite off
a win. You can rip Auburn all you want but they’ve covered four of
the last fi
ve meetings between these yellow and orange tigers, and
the fact of the matter is LSU is playing worse. The Bengal Tigers have
been outgained in four of their last fi
ve games, and are averaging
less than 16 PPG in their last six. Heck, they only converted two fi
downs last week against Mississippi State! But when push comes to
shove, the well-oiled machine comes up with
The Clincher: Miles is
1-11-1 ATS in his career in conference home openers.

UMASS over Temple by 3
As high as we are on the Owls this season, two wins in the hand
(we’ve cashed with Temple both weeks) is not worth one double-
digit bird on the road. Maybe that’s not quite how the saying
goes but the Owls’ surprise win at Cincinnati – coupled with their
monumental upset of Penn State the previous week – puts these
Birds in a precarious spot today. Not only does our MIDWEEK ALERT
remind us Temple was outstatted by 261 total yards, our well-oiled
machine informs us that since 1980, only TWO teams have opened
with back-to-back underdog wins and then went favored on the road
in Game Three of the season. How did they fare, you ask? Well, Troy
dropped a 22-18 decision at New Mexico State in 2004 as 9.5-point
favorites and East Carolina edged the Green Wave, 28-24, at Tulane
in 2008 as 12-point chalk (once again, you’re not fi
nding this stuff on
Wikipedia!) In addition, the Minutemen arrive to this home opener
fresh off a 48-14 beating in Colorado, and that brings into play their
4-0 ATS
mark at home after allowing more than 32 points. Led by
6’6” NFL QB prospect Blake Frohnapfel, the Minutemen offense
improved dramatically last season (15 points and 139 yards per game)
and we’ll look for a better effort today in front of the home faithful.
And speaking of faithful, our steadfast database puts the fi
touches on this one as it supplies
The Clincher: 17 returning-starter
home dogs off a SUATS loss of more than 20 points are 16-6
ATS when hosting a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins, including
11-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. To which we say just a minute,
men... take the points.

Stanford over USC by 1
No. 7 Trojans have outscored foes 114-15 to start the season but folks, this
is NOT Idaho or Arkansas State they’re playing today. Stanford delivered
an uncharacteristically poor performance in its season-opening loss at
Northwestern but made amends by throttling UCF last week, 31-7, and
takes the fi
eld here with some major revenge on its side. Not only did the
Cardinal have a 16-game home win skein snapped by the Trojans in a 13-10
loss last year (The Tree dominated the stats, 413-291), they also dropped
a 20-17 decision in 2013 at USC as 4-point chalk. Stanford’s chances to get
even are bolstered by some good ATS history. The Tree has gone 3-1-1 ATS
in the last fi
ve trips to the Coliseum,
6-0 ATS
in the last six Game Three’s,
5-0 ATS
as underdogs of 8 or more points and 4-1-1 ATS in the fi
rst of back-
to-back road games. Whew! Those results look even better for Stan when
we get a look at So Cal’s 1-5 ATS failure as a double-digit favorite in this
series, as well as a 3-6-1 ATS mark at home off a home game when facing
a Pac-12 opponent. And USC head coach Steve Sarkisian has struggled to a
1-5 SUATS record in conference affairs when playing off consecutive wins
with the last coming by more than 35 points.

BUFFALO over NE by 10
It was quite impressive. Tyrod Taylor making his fi
rst start behind center
in fi
ve years last week, his fi
rst ever in the NFL. Behind Taylor, the Bills
beat back the most touted team in the AFC this season, the mega-
popular Indianapolis Colts. Don’t look now but Buffy’s back for more
this week. An impressive 19-5 ATS mark in Game Two of the season,
7-1 ATS
when facing an AFC East rival, sets the table. Enter
the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, fresh off
a Tom Brady-led ‘take that and shove it’ performance over Pittsburgh
to kick off the season last week. So which team is most likely due for a
return-to-earth effort today? For the answer we turn to our powerful
database, and it notes: Defending Super Bowl champs are 18-31 ATS
when undefeated and laying points on the road, including a paltry
2-12 ATS
in this role during Game Two of the season. And to top it
off, we hand it off to
The Clincher: New England is 0-7 ATS in its
last seven games after facing the Pittsburgh Steelers.

INDIANAPOLIS over NY Jets by 17
The best-laid plans went up in smoke for the Colts when they forgot
to show up for their game with the Bills in Buffalo last Sunday. After
all the chatter about Indy being the wise guys’ pick to make it to the
Super Bowl this season – that’s what it is, just chatter. The two highly-
acclaimed veterans they added to the lineup, WR Andre Johnson
and RB Frank Gore, were simply little more than window dressing as
Johnson caught four passes for 24 yards while Gore galloped eight
time for just 31 yards. Simply put, the Colts threw a shoe. Tonight they
host the now-soaring Jets who disposed of Johnny Turnover and the
Browns in impressive fashion last week. The Flyboys are just 1-4 ATS in
their last fi
ve Monday Night appearances on the road. On the fl
ip side,
Indianapolis is
8-1 ATS
as a Monday Night favorite, and
8-0 ATS
off a
SUATS loss when taking on an opponent off a SU home win. For it all,
expect new plans to be in place for a reversal of fortune tonight. You
can bank on it. And you can also bank on
The Clincher: As supplied
by our Incredible Stat of the Week on page 3, Andrew Luck is
14-1 SU and ATS in games off a loss in his NFL career.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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