Friday, September 12, 2008

Playbook College Upsets for September 13

Rice Plus Points

Vandy coach Bobby Johnson is off to his fi rst 2-0 season start since 2005 but not without some help. If you watched last week’s 24-17 win over South Carolina, you know the Gamecocks were victimized by some extremely biased officiating, especially in the crucial second half. Even so, few could have predicted that this Week Three matchup between two traditionally downtrodden programs would emerge as a battle of 2008 unbeatens. Rice blasted SMU 56-27 on opening day then rode a strong 29-point fourth quarter to surge past Memphis 42-35 (69-yard interception return for a TD with just 11 seconds remaining stunned the Tigers). Our powerful database tells us today’s game – regardless of Zebra interference – should go the way of the Owls: Game Three teams off BB SU victories taking on a non-conference foe on the road stand a respectable 19-8 ATS. The Commies’ litany of past pointspread failures only reinforces our thinking. Teams equaling Vandy’s back-to-back SU dog wins are a weak 3-7 ATS playing a non-league foe in Game Three. Even worse, VU has struggled to a 3-13 SU and 4-11 ATS record off previous consecutive wins (0-4 SUATS last four) and the Commodores
have laid a big fat egg recently as home chalk of 17 or fewer points, burying their backers with an 0-10 mark. When the gun sounds here, we think Vandy will be singing the blues in Music City.


Air Force Plus Points

A tip of the hat goes to coach Troy Calhoun and his Flyboys. After losing4-year starting QB Shaun Carney and star RB Chad Hall, we were convincedthat Air Force would suffer a sophomore slump in Calhoun’s second season atthe controls. Instead, the Force followed an expected 41-7 thrashing of lowlySouthern Utah by going to Laramie last Saturday and totally shutting down Wyoming’s offense in a 23-3 shocker. With the Falcon defense exceeding expectations, we don’t mind taking 6 points on the road today against the Cougars. New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin must do a rapid about-face to
prepare for an offense that stands in direct contrast to the wide-open Oklahoma State attack he saw last week (Cougs ripped for 56 points). Game Three stats favor the airmen: they’re 7-1 SUATS in that role this decade while new coaches at home like Sumlin are just 10-23-1 ATS when facing down a foe off a SUATS win. The bottom line is Air Force can slow this game to a crawl and frustrate the Cougars into their second loss of the season.

Maryland Plus Points

Looking at last week’s results, you may fi nd this pick harder to swallow than a big dose of castor oil. That’s okay with us because we hope the public drives this inflated number even higher. No doubt the Golden Bears are off to a great start but this West Coast / East Coast traveler is not so desirable off last week’s conference opening rout at Washington State (Cal’s previous excursion east of Ole Man River resulted in a 17-point loss at Tennessee as 2.5 point favorites), especially with a 12 Noon ET / 9 AM PT body clock time kickoff slated. And as we’ve seen several times already in this week’s write-ups, the ‘Game Three Bower’ angle also goes against California here. Maryland’s unexpected defeat by Middle Tennessee State was a huge embarrassment for Ralph Friedgen’s program but the Rotund One owns a sweet 8-3 ATS record at home if the Terps are .500 or less, including 5-1 when playing off a loss. Even better is this database special that tells us underdogs off a SU loss as double-digit RF’s are a sterling 17-4 ATS when playing a foe off consecutive SUATS wins. THIS JUST IN: ACC dogs have clawed their way to a 13-3-2 spread mark against PAC 10 foes, a number that tightens to
7-1 if the game takes place in the regular season. Fear the turtle!

New Mexico Plus Points

Alright, pipe down… enough of the “not New Mexico again” complaints. The fact is the Lobos have nothing but themselves to blame for their 0-2 start–they outgained Texas A&M 370-236 in a 28-22 home loss last week but a 7-2 turnover bug has seemingly buried them early. Arizona is playing with a bit more purpose in ’08 but this is essentially the same team that lost outright to New Mexico 29-27 as a 9.5-point home favorite last year. Wildcats’ head coach Stoops doesn’t own many shiny pointspread credentials. He’s just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS when favored by fewer than 14 points, including 0-7 ATS when NOT off an ATS loss. Our database chips in with this final gem: bowlers who start the season 0-2 SU and ATS at home in Game Three are a brain-melting 26-3 SU! With Zona laying doubles in its first trip out of Tucson, we’ll hunker down with these Lobos one more time.

Memphis Plus Points

Both teams saw double-digit leads evaporate into losses but we don’t know how the Blundering Herd can overcome the trauma of giving up 51 unanswered points in their loss to Wisconsin. Memphis may be 0-2 SU and ATS but the Tigers have won both stat battles to start the season. Memphis fits this nifty number concerning bowl teams playing with next-season revenge: Game Three Bowl dogs of less than 20 points off consecutive pointspread losses and a SU loss have cashed in 13 of their last 16 tries. Tiger coach West badly needs a win to lower the heat under his own seat and just so happens to own a 10-2 ATS record off a SU favorite loss when tackling a > .333 opponent. Marshall has stumbled to a pathetic 2-7-1 ATS record in its last 10 conference openers and won’t be able to stop a Memphis team still steaming over their last second loss to Rice. Tigers restore the roar in Huntington.

Running Totals through Week 2: 1-3


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Monday, September 08, 2008

I’m a Loser

“I’m a loser
And I lost someone who’s near to me.
I’m a loser
And I’m not what I appear to be.”

I sat in the Sports Book at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas the first Saturday in November where a knock down, drag out football game was taking place between Miami Florida and NC State. The double-digit favored Hurricanes were hosting the Wolfpack in Miami’s homecoming game and the two teams were headed to overtime.

You could see the perplexed look on the faces of everyone in the Sports Book and on the UM players. Those in the Book who had bet Miami on the moneyline, along with the Canes themselves, realized they were both in trouble. Big trouble. After the dust had settled, NC State emerged victorious leaving Miami shell shocked. As down in the dumps as a team could be, they were then forced to prepare for Virginia the following week in what would be the last game ever to be played at the legendary Orange Bowl. Good luck.

The rest is history. Miami never recovered from the disappointing defeat and proceeded to lay the biggest egg in its storied history, losing 48-0 to the Cavaliers the following week.

The loss by the Hurricanes against the Wolfpack set the table for one of my favorite college football handicapping ploys, namely fading teams in games off an overtime loss. That’s easy enough to do since, prior to the start of the 2008 season, all overtime losers are 130-150-6 ATS in their following game since the inception of extra-session games in 1996. These down-in-the-mouth losers are especially flat when returning home off overtime defeats where they are have been a 38% proposition, going 47-71-3 ATS.

The best role in which to fade these embittered mourners occurs when we -


PLAY AGAINST any college football team as a home favorite if they lost SU in overtime the previous game.

As expected, once a loser - still a loser. That’s evidenced by the fact that these teams are just 25-44-2 ATS. Put them up against a team that knows how to win (.500 or greater) and they regress even further, going 11-27 ATS.

Better yet, pair these despaired home favorites up against .500 or better opponents in games after falling in overtime in which they scored 27 or more points and they dip to 5-19 ATS, including 2-15 ATS when facing a conference foe. Last year one qualifying play occurred when eventual national champion LSU hosted Auburn immediately after falling, 43-37, in OT at Kentucky the prior week. The 10.5-point favored Bengals needed a desperation touchdown pass in the waning seconds of the game to escape the visiting Tigers, 30-24.

There you have it. In the words of the Fab Four, who asked, “What have I done to deserve such a fate, I realize I have left it too late. And so it’s true, pride comes before a fall, I’m telling you so that you won’t lose all.”



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Friday, September 05, 2008

Browns and Titans May Surprise in Week 1

Take Browns to Upset Cowboys

Highly touted Brownies crumbled this preseason when they failed to win a single game. As a result the luster has diminished as the oddsmaker has installed them as a home dog in their lidlifter. According to our database that’s a mistake. It seems teams that were winless in practice games are 11-5 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points in season openers, including 8-0 since 1999. Furthermore, teams in Game One of the NFL season that managed to win 13 or more game the previous season are just 12-25 ATS if they open on the non-division road, including 5-13 SU and ATS when tackling a 10-win opponent.

Pro Bowl QB Derek Anderson has been cleared to play for Cleveland. Pro Bowl targets Braylon Edwards (WR) and Kellen Winslow (TE) are a happy, healthy tandem and Browns’ boss Romeo Crennel is rock-solid in non-division battles (19-10-1, including 5-1-1 in fi rst four games of the season).

The Browns’ 22-1 ATS mark in games in which they score 24 or more points ties nicely into the fact that Wade Phillips’ teams have allowed an average of 25 ppg in their last 13 road contests. With that, look for Dallas to drop to 12-23 ATS in their last 25 tries as road chalk today in this Dawg Pound dandy.


Titans To Surprise Jaguars

First things, first. We admit we’re fond of NFL home dogs that were in the playoffs the previous season. They play with passion and a purpose. This particular one happens to be one of three underdogs on today’s card (Tampa Bay and Washington the others) that actually improved their stats on both sides of the ball last season. On the other side of the coin, the Jaguars went from 8 wins in 2006 to 12 wins last season despite a defense that declined 36 ypg. We don’t like those numbers.

We also don’t like the fact the favorite is just 2-7 ATS in this series. We do like Vince Young’s glittering 18-12 SU and ATS mark in his NFL career starts, including 10-2 ATS in division duke-outs. The combination of both head coaches’ pointspread personalities (Jack Del Rio 5-9 as a division favorite, including 0-4 when favored less than 4 points, and Jeff Fisher 38-19 (35-22 SU) as a dog of less than 5 points) cements it. Titans jolt Jags.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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