Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, December 20, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of DEC 22-24


Army over Houston by 13

For the second year in a row and third time ever, Army has won 10 times in a football season. These Black Knights’ seniors can cement their place in Army football history by beating Houston in this bowl and winning 11 games. The Black Knights option offense averaged 29.7 PPG and they are second in the country in rushing at 303 yards a game and No.1 in time of possession. This is not all that untypical for a military school but what separates this Army squad from previous editions is its defense. The Cadets only allowed 18 PPG (15th nationally) and held opposing teams to 9.9 PPG below their usual scoring average and to 81 fewer yards per contest. The way to look at this bowl is the execution of the Black Knights vs. the speed of Houston. When we say speed, we mean it two ways. It starts with the skill position players of the Cougars and in their linebackers. All these Cougs can scamper. Also, Houston’s offense was fourth in scoring at 46.4 PPG and they accomplished this while 129th in time of possession! Talk about your opposites! The Cougars defense might be fast, but they are always out of position and are terrible tacklers. They permit 34.4 PPG and not one bowl team allowed more yards. DT Ed Oliver decided not to play after an injury-plagued season and the Cougars other three top defensive linemen are injured. In addition, it should be noted that Army recruits the state of Texas as much as any school in the country (23 players on the roster from Texas). “This isn’t our first trip to Texas... Each time we come down here, we make it a big deal. We use all the social media avenues to reach out to prospects to let them know we’re going to be here. It further solidifies that we want Texas players on our team,” said head coach Jeff Monken. The pitch is simple enough: Come to the top public university in America, play in a football program that has as good a tradition as any in college football (three national championships, three Heisman Trophy winners) and graduate into a well-paying job as a second lieutenant. With Houston using a backup quarterback and Army 9-2 ATS in away games against a team with a winning record, they appear to be a solid choice. We salute the Army as we close it out with THE CLINCHER: Military bowlers are 33-13 ATS since 1981, including 23-4 ATS vs .600 or greater foes.



NFL

Atlanta over Carolina by 11


From Marc’s featured BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article in this week’s USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY: The penultimate week in the NFL is most critical for teams whose playoff fate is on the line. In addition, teams entering Week 15 of the regular season with either 6 or 7 wins are also striving to avoid a losing campaign. As a result, when favored these teams are generally under added pressure to perform, especially at home. It’s where the Vegas oddsmakers make backing them a costly proposition. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6 or 7 win NFL home favorites in Game 15 of the regular season are just 57-47 SU but only 31-68-5 ATS. That’s not good news today for the Panthers, who enter off Monday night’s close-call loss with the Saints, which dropped them to the barely alive 9th spot in the NFC playoff picture. It’s not often you’ll find teams favored in this league riding a 6-game exact losing streak as they are just 12-20 ATS at home in this role since 1980 – including 7-18 ATS when laying 2 or more points (2-11 ATS when seeking revenge). With Superman having taken on too much kryptonite of late, we call on THE CLINCHER: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 7-1 ATS as a road dog with a losing record from Game Twelve out, including 6-0 ATS when not coming off a double-digit loss.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, December 06, 2018


Best NFL Upsets, DEC 8 Weekend


NFL

Philly over Dallas by 7

Both teams picked up much needed wins last week and find themselves in a fierce chase for the playoffs with the winner of this contest assuming the top spot in the NFC East. With it we turn to our all-knowing database as it reminds us that defending Super Bowl champions are at their best as road dogs against opponents coming off consecutive SUATS wins, going 16-10-1 SU and 20-6-1 ATS, including 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in division games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been roped up and put away wet as home chalk during December behind head coach Jason Garrett going 2-8 ATS, including 0-4 ATS in division games. It ties in directly with Garrett’s god-awful 16-33 ATS career mark when laying points at home. If the Boys’ 3-13 ATS failure as hosts in this series in games where Philly does not sport a winning record – coupled with the AWESOME ANGLE on page 2– isn’t enough for you, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: Garrett is 5-19 ATS in his career as a home favorite against foes coming off a win, including 0-15 ATS in games in which Dallas scored fewer than 30 points in its previous games.



Indianapolis over Houston 6

The scorching-hot Texans ride a 9-game win streak into this AFC South division dandy despite being outgained in four of those games (outstatted, 428-384 in win over the Browns last week). Nonetheless, the tall, tall Texans edged Indianapolis, 37-34, in overtime the final week of September – a win that started the current skein. However, they’ve struggled as a host in this series, going 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS the past fi ve seasons. Meanwhile, the Colts were blanked last week but ride a nice 8-1 ITS streak into this contest. QB Andrew Luck counters that, though, with a sterling 9-2 SUATS mark in games when Indy is coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite. Better yet, he is 16-2 SUATS in his NFL career when coming off a loss behind a team with a win percentage of more than .333.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 29, 2018


College & Pro Upsets Weekend DEC 1-2


Utah over Washington by 6

The Huskies were odds-on favorites to win this title at the start of the season at 5-to-8, while the Utes were one of the longshots at 15-1. However, after losing to both Washington and Washington State on consecutive weekends in September, the Utes caught fire by going 7-1 over the remainder of the regular season. Last Saturday’s emotional Mormon conflict against BYU in the “Holy War” found the Utes trailing 21-0 at the half, but Kyle Whittingham’s adjustments brought his team back for a 35-27 victory. The Utah head coach is now 14-3 ATS as a dog coming off an ATS loss when facing .600 or greater conference foes. Meanwhile, the Huskies’ 28-15 upset of Washington State in the snow earned them a spot in this game, and it was the ground attack that got the job done, as Myles Gaskin closed out his prolific career (over 1,000 yards on the ground in all four seasons) with 170 yards and 3 TDs against the Cougars. Our numbers definitely indicate a play on the Utes is in order, though, as Utah is 4-1 ATS as underdogs with conference revenge and 4-1-1 ATS when getting 6 points or less, while Washington is 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS as favorites coming off a SU underdog win, plus 1-6 ATS after allowing 15 or less points. Also, don’t forget that before the Apple Cup win to get here, the Huskies were riding a 6-game ATS losing streak – all as a favorite, the role they find themselves reverting back to this week. In addition, the green machine supplies us with this nugget: dogs in College Conference Championship games with an identical win percentage are 12-2-1 ATS all-time if they are facing a foe that is not off an ATS loss of more than 4 points. We close it out with THE CLINCHER: Utah is 15-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in weekday games.



Fresno St over BOISE ST by 6


Despite being tucked away in the Boise Mountains and dwarfed by today’s Power Five matchups that will hog most of the media’s attention, this could turn out to be one of the day’s most entertaining clashes. With both squads 10-2 SU and led by outstanding quarterback play – BSU’s Brett Rypien (29 TDs, 7 INTs, 298 YPG) and FSU’s Marcus McMaryion (24 TDs, 3 INTS, 274 YPG) – we’re expecting a high-altitude barnburner. Boise State has taken the last two tightly-contested meetings between these MWC foes, beating Fresno State in last year’s championship game, 17-14, and prevailing by a 7-point margin on this fi eld as a 2-point dog three weeks ago. This isn’t new ground for either side, as the Bulldogs are making their 4th MWC Championship appearance (3-3 SU / 4-2 ATS) while the Broncos are showing up for a third time (2-0 SU). While Boise head coach Bryan Harsin has certainly done a fine job in his fi ve years with the wild horses, we can’t say enough about Fresno’s Jeff Tedford, who inherited a 1-11 squad in 2017 and has gone 20-6 SU and 17-6-1 ATS since then. Tedford is also the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, good company for his team as they’ve seen the underdog go 4-0 ATS in the last four MWC title bouts. The kudos don’t stop there: the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or fewer points, 9-2 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss, and 12-3-1 ATS with conference revenge. We realize the visitors are on an 0-3 ATS slide while Big Blue has covered its last three but we think the early odds-on favorite (BSU was 4-7 to win the title before the season started) will stumble on the blue turf tonight. Grab the points, and maybe a money line play if you’re so inclined.

NFL


Buffalo over MIAMI by 3

If we’re setting odds on NFL coaches making it thru the end of the season, we have Adam Gase listed as the leading candidate to get pink slipped before Black Monday. On his next resume he should list ‘run the ball on 3rd-and-10’ as his favorite offensive call. It’s what cost Miami a victory in last week’s loss at Indianapolis and the deer in the headlights look is Miami’s new face these days. Making matters worse this week, the Fish bring a 1-7 ATS mark as home favorites when hosting their seventh game of the season at Miami into this battle. They are also 3-7 SUATS the last ten games in this series. With the resurgent Bills 4-1 ATS as road dogs between home games, and fitting snugly inside this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, it’s Bambi at his best in another choke job today.


Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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