Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Saturday, May 14, 2011


NBA ROUND THREE BETTING EDGES


One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2010-11 season winds its way to the finish line.

From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…

DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely.

As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 39-24-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.



Bring them in off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 22-12-1 ATS. Let these upset losers dress up as dogs off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points and they become a 13-4-1 ATS winning proposition.


BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 49-39-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 21-13-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 20-8-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-2-1 ATS winning edge.


RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011


NBA RUNNER-UPS Back in the Playoff Waters


Nowadays everyone is familiar with the term’ Super Bowl loser’.

Simply out, these are teams that made it to the NFL Super Bowl game but failed to win the trophy.

The one common denominator of these teams is they have struggled, both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), the following season.

Thanks to my powerful database, I explored the same school of thought with NBA teams that made it to, but lost, in the Championship series. More specifically, how these have fared in the post season the following year.

The results were interesting, to say the least. Presented below are four situations that warrant attention when it comes to backing defending runner-ups in the playoffs. All results are from 1991 through last season.



RESTED FOES CAUSE WOES
Rest can be a killer when opposing teams happen to be the beneficiary, especially for these defending losers.

That’s because these teams are 13-29-1 ATS when playing facing an opponent playing with three or more days of rest, including 5-15-1 ATS when the runner-ups are playing off a SU and ATS win.

TWICE IS ENOUGH
These defending losers don’t like it when they’ve been beat two times in a row.

That’s confirmed by their 17-12 ATS overall mark in games when playing off back-to-back defeats, including 13-5 ATS when they are on their home court.

A DOZEN WILL DO
Defending runner-ups do not like it when they’ve suffered a bad beating, and it shows.

These guys are a highly profitable 19-8-1 ATS in playoff games off a loss of 12 or more points, including 12-4 ATS at home. FYI: they are on a nice 6-0 SU and ATS run in this role the last three years.

WORST IN SHOW
Let a defending loser pull the rug out on an opponent as an underdog and watch their tail stop wagging.

These teams are 10-18-2 ATS off a SU underdog playoff win, including 4-11 ATS at home.

There you have it. A quick look into some of the do’s and don’ts when it comes to ‘playing on’ or ‘playing against’ defending NBA Championship game losers.

Keep a close on the Boston Celtics this season and play accordingly.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, April 29, 2011


NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES


With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Tripped out favorites
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-13 ATS in these games.



Worse, if they dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map and out of the playoffs, going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Last year San Antonio and Utah were sent packing in this identical spot.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 16-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58% ATS proposition, going 31-21 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these pick-of-the-litter plays bark to the tune of 12-5 ATS, including 11-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 18-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 14-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

Use your head and play accordingly.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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