Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, November 21, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets NOV 24-25


OHIO State over Michigan by 6

Known as “The Game”, the stakes are high once again, and this year we have a real twist. In spite of the fact Ohio State has won six in a row (2-4 ATS) and 13 of 14 (10-4 ATS), the Buckeyes are home underdogs. That would end a streak of 51 consecutive contests in which Ohio State was favored. Nonetheless, Michigan is a bedrock solid 5-0 ATS with Big Ten revenge and 4-0 ATS versus .750 or greater conference opponents. The Maize-and-Blue is also 3-0 SUATS on their revenge our (Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State) this season and held those foes to an average of just 188 YPG. Urban Meyer gets to theplay the underdog card and he’s been a master at it. When Meyer puts on the (under)dog ears, he is amazing: 18-6 ATS catching points,and since donning the Scarlet and Gray colors, 6-0 SUATS with the Buckeyes and 4-0 SUATS as a home dog. When the coach is facing .800 or greater foes, his teams are 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS. However, this is not all about the current Ohio State coach as the Buckeyes are 11-5 ATS as home dogs since 1982 (last time 2011 versus Wisconsin, won 33-29), 7-1 ATS as home dogs versus .900 or greater foe, and a perfect 8-0 ATS as home dogs of +2.5 or more points. For Michigan, this is all or nothing. Win and they should handle Northwestern a second time and reach the playoffs. A loss and it is a major move backward to a less rewarding New Year’s Day bowl. Remember, the line on this game in Las Vegas before the season started was Ohio State -9. With the pressure squarely on the Wolverines, we’ll abide by THE CLINCHER: Meyer is 102-10 SU at home on his career, with only four losses by more than 4 points



Washington over WASHINGTON ST by 10

Value galore here with UDub riding a 6-game ATS losing skein – but they are also 9-1 In The Stats their last ten games. Remember, behind a deeply experienced squad, the Huskies were an overwhelming choice to win the Pac-12 at the start of the season and perhaps make it to the CFB Final Four. While its playoff dreamshave since been dashed, Washington can fulfill the first part of the prophecy here, as the winner of tonight’s Apple Cup clash advances to the Pac-12 title game. Yes, the Cougars have been one of 2018’s
feel-good stories and we’ve been riding the “Ginsu” Train with QB Gardner Minshew II and head coach Mike Leach all year. But with the Huskies dressing up as a ‘DIA play’ (dominating Dog In Action, Doing It Again) with their season on the line, this is where we jump off the train. The landing will be a soft one: recent series results have seen Washington State go 0-4 SUATS the last four, 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home. Along with our triple dip, we see that the Huskies are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS weekday conference games, including 4-0 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Not to mention that the line on this game in Las Vegas before the season started was Washington -14.5. How bout them apples? We close our case with THE CLINCHER: Huskies head coach Chris Petersen is 5-0 ATS in his career as a dog of less than 12 points when facing .840 or greater opponents coming off a win of 6 or more points.


NFL


DENVER over Pittsburgh by 8

We loved QB Ben Roethlisberger’s comment about trash talking Jag Jalen Ramsey, who has taken potshots at Big Ben in the past, when he said after the Steelers dramatic come from behind win over Jacksonville last week: “They like to talk a lot before the game, during the game. But I’m carrying the game ball home.” Today the Steel Curtain takes their smoldering act to the Mile High city knowing they have struggled mightily in games against teams from the AFC West, going just 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS as road chalk since 1980, including 0-9 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. Meanwhile, the Broncos return home on a 4-1 ATS and ITS run with a stellar 9-1 ATS home dog log against .500 or greater foes. With the Steelers having a bigger AFC West rival on deck with the playoff hopeful LA Chargers, and still reveling in their playoff loss revenge victory over the aforementioned Jaguars, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: Denver is 14-3 SU and 15-1-1 ATS as a home dog since 1980 when coming off a division game.

Green Bay over MINNESOTA by 8


Aaron Rodgers has lost 7 straight regular road starts for the first time in his career, but as Marc alluded to in his USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY column this week: Rodgers is in a situation in which he has responded well in the past with the Packers going 21-8 SU and 18-10-1 ATS in games they play with a sub .500 record. In division games with a sub par record Rodgers has been superb, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. And when not installed as a favorite of more than 6 points in these games Rodgers has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS. It ties directly with his sparkling mark outline in “THE CLINCHER” below. On the other side of the coin Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is just 9-15-1 SU in division games in his NFL career, including 2-7-1 SU and 2-8 ATS the last ten games. With the Packers currently the No. 9 seed in the NFL playoff picture, and the Vikings the No. 6 seed, this becomes do-or-die
time for Mr. Rodgers. We say he does, with special thanks to THE CLINCHER: Green Bay QB Rodgers is 42-15-1 SU and 38-20 ATS in his career in division games, going 17-4 SUATS in division games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS away.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, November 16, 2018


College & Pro Upsets, NOV 17-18


TENNESSEE over Missouri by 6

With just three actual SEC matchups this week, CBS decided to grab this conflict as its main afternoon game and give Alabama the week off since they are playing the Citadel. As Gary Danielson said during last week’s Bama contest, he had a lot of experience in his time at Purdue as a quarterback in games like this. He was referring to a team like Tennessee, who is seeking bowl eligibility with a 5-5 record. This is Senior Day for the Vols and those players that have been in Knoxville four or five years have been through a lot of criticism and want to go bowling after missing last year. Missouri was supposed to vanquish Vanderbilt last week and had to come from behind instead to win, 33-28, as a 14.5-point home favorite. In all likelihood, the Tigers’ bowl positioning is not going to change much with a win or loss where they have checkerboard end zones. Plus, Mizzou is 1-5 ATS after allowing 450 or more yards and 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS away versus .500 or greater opponents. We’ll side with the hungry home underdogs who are 4-1 ATS in their last fi ve SEC contests and off two straight victories to cover. THE CLINCHER: CFB home teams off consecutive home wins, the last a SU underdog win of more than 14 points, are 12-2-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins.




Minnesota over Northwestern by 8

Both teams stared down adversity last week and emerged with big wins. Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown by beating Iowa at Kinnick Stadium, holding the Hawkeyes to a puny 64 rushing yards while piling up 184 yards on the ground themselves (165 belonged to RB Isaiah Bowser). Meanwhile, Minnesota limped
back home after a sobering 55-31 loss at Illinois to take on redhot Purdue, knowing a loss to the Boilermakers would doom the Gophers to a 2nd straight season without reaching a bowl under HC P.J. Fleck. We guess Fleck’s ‘row the boat’ message finally took hold because Minnesota routed the Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point
home dog. But while last Saturday’s win over Iowa clinched bowl-eligible status for the Wildcats, the Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling–and we think they’ve got a better shot at beating Northwestern here than taking out Wisconsin at Madison next week. Let’s face it… the 24th-ranked Purple Cats’
numbers don’t match those of other Power Five division champions. Their offense is ranked No. 112 in the country and they’re being outgained by an average of 23 YPG. Furthermore, our History Book reminds us Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS as road chalk against foes coming off a win, including 0-6 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points. Minnesota has also had this game circled since last season after an ugly 39-0 loss in Evanston cost the 5-win Gophers a bowl bid. This is an ideal spot for a payback, and with Fleck’s team standing 5-1 SU at home this season, we’re there in this double bowl get-up-and-letdown spot.

NFL

Philadelphia over New Orleans by 3


If you’re trembling in your boots at the thought of jumping in front of the Who Dey Express, we understand. But like a much-needed visit to the shrink can help ease your fears, so too does knowing that defending Super Bowl champions have been at their best in underdog roles. These ring-bearers love playing the disrespect card, going 52-37-4 ATS in these games dating back to 1981. Better yet, bring them in as red-faced dogs in games when coming off a SU favorite loss and they respond with aplomb, going 17-8-2 ATS in these games. And for even more, see the ‘THE CLINCHER’ outlined below, as well as the INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. Meanwhile, the Saints enter just 2-10 ATS at home in non-division frays when coming off a non-division contest after scoring 40 or more points. The bottom line in this league is “what goes up must come down” as well as “what goes down must come up”. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Defending Super Bowl champions who are underdogs when coming off a SU favorite loss are 8-3 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in this situation when facing foes coming off a win of 7 or more points.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 08, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, NOV 10-12


WISCONSIN over Penn State by 6

The Nittany Lions were installed as 1.5-point favorites in this game at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas before the season started. Now, this inflated number seems to fly in the face of the Lions’ 42-7 beating at the hands of Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines on Saturday. We understand the Badgers have underperformed but so too have the Lions, who enter on a 4-game ATS losing skein, losing the stats in each game, which makes them another ‘leaking oil’ favorite. In addition, Wisky is a stellar 5-0 ATS since 1990 when seeking triple revenge-exact. Meanwhile, since taking over for Gary Andersen after the 2014 season, head coach Paul Chryst is 40-10 SU in Madison, including 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS away, with only 3 losses by more than 7 points. This is still a hugely important game for Bucky, as Wisconsin is tied with Purdue, just a game behind Northwestern in the Big Ten West.



NFL


NEW York Giants over SF by 7

Niners QB Nick Mullins’ debut start last week was one for the record books. His 151.9 passer rating was the second best ever (behind Marcus Mariota in 2015) for a quarterback in his first NFL game. The ex-practice squad signal-caller stunned the NFL nation when he took apart the Oakland Raiders last Thursday. Then again the Raiders are falling apart like a cheap suit these days, as their reputed “dive for draft picks” crusade is well under way. Frisco returns after Mullins’ coming out party in another prime-time affair sporting bodacious Monday Night numbers, including 12-1 ATS the last twelve. The problem we have, however, is the Niners are just 1-12 ATS as a favorite the last five years, with the only cover by Jimmy Garoppolo (now on the DL for the season). In addition, they are also 1-7 ATS against rested foes coming off consecutive losses. And while the well-rested visiting Giants aren’t much, they set up THE CLINCHER: 125 or less NFL teams with a week of rest are 19-3-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win.

Detroit over CHICAGO by 3

When we find a team that scores 40 points in a game while putting up only 190 yards of offense, we’re first in line to fade them the following game. And when they are laying more points at home than they have won by in the last six years in the series, we’re prepared to snap the rubber band. The Lions enter trailing the Bears by two full games following last week’s disappointing 24-9 loss at Minnesota. Its sets this game up, though, as Detroit is 5-1 ATS following a division game in which they failed to score 10 points. On the fl ip side, Chicago is 1-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points when facing losing foes coming off a SUATS loss. Strap on Matthew
Stafford’s 9-1 SU mark in his last ten starts in this series and we’re on our way to the window.














































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Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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