Wednesday, October 10, 2012
College & Pro Upsets Oct.13-16
College Upsets
PITTSBURGH Over Louisville by 8
The Cardinals may be 7-2 ATS with rest but they are a 5-0 ‘Fat Cat’ fade from last issue’s SMART BOX, the same scenario that saw FSU lose outright at NC State and Ohio not cover against Buffalo. Only the Oregon Ducks managed to escape the wrath of the ‘Box’ last weekbut we don’t see similar results for the Redbirds this morning (11:00 AM start) in the Steel City. Nope, not only are the Panthers a live Homecoming dog that has dominated the series of late (4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS since 2007), they don’t fear a conference opponent seeking revenge as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven against these foes. They are also 6-1 ATS off a weekday tilt. Strong numbers indeed (and not as in Louisville HC Charlie Strong) but the clincher comes from our PLAYBOOK.com database and it’s as good as it gets: Game Six or later undefeated road teams playing with rest turn to rust as these squads are 11-24 SU and 5-30 ATS since 1999. That means that more than two-thirds of these teams have seen their dreams of a perfect season dashed in this dangerous role. Wow – is that amazing stuff, or what? We want no part of that nor do we want any part of a Louisville team that has yet to cash away from home this season (0-2 ATS). We’ll prowl with the Panthers as Louie goes Kapooie.
IOWA STATE over Kansas State by 6
Marc’s ‘Kick in the Assets’ article on page 2 packs quite a wallop against the unbeaten Wildcats and suggests they are ‘gonna come down’ today in Ames. Even if you think that wily head coach BillSnyder can keep his ‘Cats from looking ahead to next week’s battle at unbeaten West Virginia, both our PLAYBOOK.com database and Midweek Alert think it’s ‘Goodbye Yellow Brick Road’ for the men from Manhattan. For starters, K-State is just 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as road chalk, including 0-5 ATS versus a foe off a SU win, while the dog-lovin’ Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine when taking points, including fi ve SU wins. Series history also favors the points as the pup has cashed in four of the last fi ve meetings. And from a strength of schedule standpoint, the Cyclones have taken a ride against lined foes that own a 12-5 SU record this season while the Wildcats’ opposition checks in with a 6-10 SU mark. That’s all good reason to ‘listen to the old man’ (Marc) as he’s been telling us for years that ‘the dogs of society howl.’ So if you want to stay planted in your penthouse, you know what to do – not only grab the points, but take a look at that juicy money line, too!
TEXAS TECH over West Virginia by 4
If these aren’t Heisman Trophy numbers, then there aren’t any. West Virginia QB Geno Smith this season: 81.3% pass completions on 166-of-204, 1,996 yards, 24 TDs and 0 Ints. Wow! But here’s something you may not know – Texas Tech’s defense ranks No. 3 in the land, allowing only 210 YPG. The Mountaineer coaches would probably kill for numbers like that: WVU gave up 45 points in last week’s win over Texas, 108 points in its two Big 12 games, and the stop unit ranks No. 104 overall, ripped for a whopping 460 YPG. We can be a bit more forgiving with the Mounties lack of defense considering the offense can score so quickly and so often. One thing we don’t like, though, is seeing the Mountaineers go from 7-point road dogs to road favorites off the nationally-televised rumble with the Longhorns. Red Raiders QB Seth Doege is adept at exploiting the weaknesses in any defense and after facing ferocious pressure from Oklahoma last Saturday, he’ll fi nd things much more to his liking here. TTRR improves to 8-1-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back at Lubbock by ambushing the stump-jumper.
South Carolina over LSU by 6
The Gamecocks’ punishing defense grounded “Gurshall” last Saturday night in Columbia, holding Georgia’s freshmen Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall to 76 yards combined in South Carolina’s impressive 35-7 smackdown of the Dawgs (our SEC scout, Jaybird The Bulldog, apparently put so many bettors on UGA that he had to fl ee Vegas for his own safety). The victory gives ‘the other USC’ a 10-game win streak, the most in school history – as well as the longest current skein in the FBS. But with LSU throwing down the gauntlet this week and the Gators next, it doesn’t get any easier for the Ol’ Ball Coach, who by the way, is the 3rd oldest active FBS coach on the sidelines these days (we’ll need to change Ol’ to Old sooner rather than later). Even so, we think Spurrier may have a legitimate contender in the race to unseat Alabama from the college football throne. Gamecock QB Connor Shaw may not get mentioned along with Geno Smith or Matt Barkley but the junior has won 13 of his 14 starts with Carolina. He’ll get to face an LSU squad that saw its ‘Bubble Burst’ in a major last week at The Swamp. The Tigers have also fl oundered in today’s role, going 2-7 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or less points and 2-6 ATS at Death Valley in between road trips. From the database: LSU head coach Les Miles is 10-15 SU and 9-14-2 ATS in conference games in his career against foes that own a better record than his team. Hey, with the TRIVIA TEASER and BUBBLE BURST at work here, we’ll taking
anything The Man is offering. Is that the phone? Yep, it’s Jaybird, calling from the south rim of the Grand Canyon. “Don’t jump, Bird!” we yelled. “I’m not gonna jump,” he said. “I’m here to make a point about LSU this
week: hang on tight, Tiger fans, cause it’s a long way DOWN.”
WASHINGTON ST over California by 1
Looks like Cal HC Jeff Tedford got the message loud and clear last week when his Bears assaulted the Bruins, 43-17, as 3-point dogs. However, this week they change roles and go out as road favorites – not a good thing for Tedford who is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in his career in games off a SU dog win, including 0-4 SUATS when laying points. Our database also chips in with this nugget: college RF’s off a SU home dog win who scored 36 or more points in the victory are just 8-24 ATS when facing a foe off an ATS win. In direct contrast, WSU’s Mike Leach owns a stellar 9-1 ATS dog log off a SU loss, including 6-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 15 points. At fi rst glance, the much-maligned Cougars defense looks to be another hapless unit ike those fi elded under the Paul Wulff regime, but they’ve actually held their last two foes to season low – and 2nd low – yardage marks. It’s the offense – Leach’s calling card with Texas Tech – that can’t seem to get into a rhythm. But Leach is a master tinkerer and he’ll fi t the pieces together sooner rather than later. Both teams sit at 2-4 SU and despite the Bears’ 43-point breakout against UCLA, they’re not ready to lay a touchdown on the Pac-12 road. Cougars re-heat Tedford’s seat with an upset today.
Tex-San Antonio over RICE by 4
The first question we’d pose to the Vegas linemakers in this contest is: why are the Owls favored? They tried it last week and were upended by notso-mighty Memphis, scoring a feeble 10 points and losing outright as 5.5
road favorites. But UTSA bears little resemblance to the underachievers in Memphis. The Roadrunners have sprinted to a 5-0 SU and ITS start to the season, covering both lined games. Head coach Larry Coker, formerly of Miami Fla, has lined a few pockets in this situation recently, compiling an 8-3 ATS mark as an underdog. Rice has had trouble beating college football’s bottom feeders so, as you might expect, they can’t handle winning opponents, going 22-108 SU in that role. The fact that San Antonio fields the better ‘D’ by a whopping 238 YPG seals the deal. Remember the Alamo!
PRO UPSETS
St. Louis over Miami by 7
It’s strange how the NFC West has so quickly gone from peasants to ‘king of the hill’ of the NFL but such is the case this week as the division is the only one in the league to feature four teams with winning records at this stage of the season. Today’s game pairs Jeff Fisher against the team he spurned in favor of the Rams, thus adding to the drama of the contest. Miami returns home off a satisfying road win at Cincinnati dressing up as favorites for the fi rst time in the Ryan Tannehill era. That presents a problem considering that starting rookie quarterbacks are not only 0-5 ATS as favorites this season, but also 0-5 SU as well. That magnifi es next to Miami’s 0-9 SU mark in Game Sixes and its recent 0-5 ATS record as home chalk during the 2nd quarter of the season (Games Five-Eight). Given the Rams’ 7-1 ATS log in games off a win versus opponent’s off a SU underdog win in similar 2nd quarter contests, look for Fisher – the king of underdogs – to continue his magic in the Magic City today.
NY Giants over San Francisco by 10
Yes, we realize the Niners are the hottest thing since the launch of the new IPhone. And they will take to the fi eld with revenge on their minds from a loss suffered to the Giants in the championship game on this field last postseason behind the league’s top rated passer in Alex Smith. So why is it we’re willing to throw back a kamikaze and take them on, you say? It’s simply not because we’re contrarians by nature. Nor is it the fact that defending super bowl champions excel as underdogs. No, we’re locked into our database and it’s screaming Giants. For openers, favorites in this league that have allowed 3 or fewer points combined in their last two games are just 3-11 ATS since 1990, including 0-7 ATS when facing a foe that scored 17 or more points in its previous game. In addition, since 1988 only three teams n the league have managed to beat the spread by 30 or more points in back-to-back games. All three lost the next game straight up. The clincher is the fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 13-6 SU and 14-4 ATS as road dogs versus opponents off back-to-back SUATS wins, including 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS if the foe is off a win of more than 17 points. Now, get on the phone and tell Siri to listen up as the Niners fall to 2-12 SU in Game Sixes here today.
MONDAY NIGHT
Denver over San Diego by 11
A battle for supremacy in the AFC West kicks off under the Monday night lights when Philip Rivers and the 3-2 Chargers host Peyton Manning and the 2-3 Broncos in San Diego. It’s not often you will fi nd Manning’s teams taking the fi eld with a losing record but when you do you can count on them, as evidenced by his 17-8 SU career mark in these games, including 3-0 SUATS when facing a foe off a SUATS loss. In addition, Monday night football fi elds have been Peyton’s place where he is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in his career as a favorite or dog of less than 3 points. On the other side of the coin, Rivers is 0-2 SUATS as a favorite in games off a loss on Mondays. More important, Charger head coach Norv Turner lumps up at home in division games where he stands 17-31 ATS in his NFL career, including 0-5 SUATS when favored by a fi eld goal or less. With the visitor 5-1 SUATS the last six games in this series, look for Peyton to pull his team even with the Chargers here tonight. Broncos kick up their heels at Qualcomm.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Saturday, October 06, 2012
College & Pro Upsets Oct.6-8
COLLEGE UPSETS
Navy over AIR FORCE by 3
The Midshipmen have been misfiring since the start of 2011 but they take the field for this 11:30 AM ET (9:30 Mountain Standard Time) start with double revenge on their minds. The revenge role is one the Middies have relished over the years against fellow Military squads, going 18-12-1 ATS, including 4-0-1 ATS with double-revenge exact. They are also 10-4 SU and 11-2 ATS with revenge versus .500 or less opposition. And while the offense has struggled mightily this season (17 points in three lined games), the defense has not alla touchdown in its last nine quarters of play and that should provide for a close game this MORNING in Colorado Springs. In fact, with the Air Force stop-unit having allowed season-high yardage to pathetic Colorado State and UNLV in its last two contests, we’re calling for the outright victory! And why not? The Middies outgained the Falcons by over 100 yards in last year’s gut-wrenching one-point overtime loss. With that, we say rise and shine early and back the revenge-seeking Mission Road Dog’ as the Naval Academy improves to 7-0 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies while the Falcons leave in mourning.
TEMPLE over South Florida by 3
South Florida gave its all in a gutty effort against FSU last week, bringing home the money and delivering our 5* NCAA Game of the Month (now 60-29-1 since 1990). However, we won’t be running with the Bulls this
week as Skippy assumes his ‘Hyde’ role as a favorite. In fact, the Tampa contingent may be prime for an upset as they are staring dead-ahead to a Louisville revenger while Temple is anxious to make a good showing in
its Big East debut. The well-rested Owls will also be looking to improve on a 4-0 SU mark at home in games off back-to-back losses and, as you know, Homecoming dogs are more to our liking than alumni chalk. Our database also likes Steve Addazio’s crew as it notes: home dogs in Game Four with a losing record, who were a bowl team last year, are 12-2-1 ATS since 2001. Thus. It will be no surprise to see the Bulls fall to 0-6 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back road games. You know what to do.
Northwestern over PENN ST by 3
While the Wildcats have the look of a 5-0 Fat Cat, they’re not – not by the
terms laid out in this week’s SMART BOX. What they are is a Game Six
5-0 dog off a win of 7 or more points and these pups are a nifty 35-12-1
ATS winning proposition. The high-scoring ‘Cats gained a school-record 704
yards in last week’s rocking chair win (sure they fell asleep but woke up
the nick of time to preserve the cover) over the Hoosiers and may just have
too much offense for the conservative Lions. One note of concern, though,
is the Purple Gang’s strength of schedule as their lined FBS foes to date
are just 1-11 SU against fellow FBS foes. However, the feeling here is that
Penn State’s emotional Homecoming will be ruined by the fact that the
Lions are just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus undefeated
opposition. Yes, it’s been eight years since the Wildcats have garnered a
win in this series but that did occur in Happy Valley (14-7 as 4.5-point dogs)
so there’s no reason to believe these improved ‘Cats can’t start a season 6-0
for the fi rst time since the days of Pappy Waldorf (1936). Grab the points
but you won’t need ‘em as Northwestern alumni Mike Greenberg will have
plenty to talk about come Monday morning on Mike and Mike.
MARSHALL over Tulsa by 3
The name ‘Doc Holliday’ carries with it a certain mystique, seeing as
how its most famous owner was an American gambler, gunfi ghter and
dentist who took up arms with Wyatt Earp in the Gunfi ght at the O.K.
Corral in Tombstone, Arizona in October, 1881. Holliday turned out to
be on the winning side of that particular dispute. That can’t be said for
Doc’s current incarnation, who suffered the worst loss of his coaching
career in last season’s 59-16 public fl ogging in Tulsa. The Hurricane don’t
quite pack the same punch this year – even though they’re 4-1 so far, the
wins have come at the expense of some far weaker programs (lined foes
have combined to win only four out of 14 games in 2012). Not so for the
Herd: lined foes dotting Marshall’s schedule have posted a strong 10-5 SU
showing. Big Green also owns a 13-5-1 ATS log as home dogs, including an
almost-perfect 7-0-1 ATS mark versus .800 or greater foes. With Holliday’s
offense thundering along at 556 yards per game (No. 6 nationally), don’t
be surprised to see the good doctor gain a little frontier justice in the
mountains of Morgantown. Payback!
FLORIDA over Lsu by 4
Unlike last year, this gang of Gators is operating with such confi dence that
they actually think they can bring down the might Bayou Bengals. And so
do we. The Tigers fell again in the polls for a second straight week with
another unimpressive win over Towson… and it won’t get any easier as
USA Today’s Mike LoPresti calls out the fact the Tigers’ next fi ve opponents
(Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State) are
a combined 21-1 SU on the season. But are the Bengals starting to slip
because of legitimate problems or are they just playing possum? We know
this much: the Gators are ‘All Revved Up’ (an angle from Marc’s Best of
the Black Book involving rested conference home dogs off a win with
revenge), plus they are the answer to the week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on
page 3. Adding to that 1-2 punch is Florida’s outstanding 6-1 ATS effort at
The Swamp off a shutout win. And though the Gators have managed only
a mediocre 11-12 record in their last 23 appearances as SEC underdogs,
they have posted a respectable 16-6-1 ATS mark in those games. This won’t
be an easy task as the series visitor is grabbing the money at a 70% clip and
LSU’s streak of 18 regular season wins in a row is the nation’s longest. Still,
UF coach Muschamp is champing at the bit to register a signature win in his
PRO FOOTBALL UPSETS
Thursday, October 4
ST. LOUIS over Arizona by 6
If this game were played opening week, the Rams would have been
installed as 3-point favorites. But lo and behold, thanks to a 4-0 start to
the campaign, the Cardinals enter as road chalk despite the fact they’ve
been outyarded in every contest. They’ll not only need to overcome a 1-7
ATS mark under Ken Whisenhunt when laying points off back-to-back wins
but also an 0-4 SU and ATS franchise mark in games on Thursday. That’s
not to mention the fact that 4-0 teams off a spread loss are a disturbing 5-8
SU and 2-10-1 ATS loss in Game Five when facing a foe with at least one
loss on the year. The Rams return home off Sunday’s home dog victory over
Seattle sporting a 7-2 SU and ATS record on this fi eld when playing off an
upset win. It all ties into head coach Jeff Fisher’s sterling 16-7-1 ATS career
mark when taking points off a SU underdog win. With value a-plenty, and
a home dog with the better offense AND the better defense, so long as the
Rams remain on the take, so will we.
WASHINGTON OVER ATLANTA BY 7
The second of three unbeaten NFL teams that all take to the road
this week fi nds the Falcons tackling the Redskins at FedEx Field in
a disturbing situation. That’s because the Dirty Birds have really
struggled against the NFC East, going 9-29 SU and ATS when Atlanta
is off a win, including 2-14 SU and ATS in a matchup of both squads
off victories. Complicating matters for the Falcons is Washington’s 7-1
ATS mark in games off a SU underdog win when facing a .500 or
greater foe during the 2nd quarter (Games Five thru Eight) of the
season. Granted, the Skins have allowed each of the last three teams
they met season-high yards, but the dog in Robert Griffi n III’s games is
a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS thus far this season – and we’re not about to
step in front of that. All good things come to an end, and they should
this Sunday as Boss Hog Mike Shanahan is 11-8 SU and 12-6-1 ATS in
his last 19 games against undefeated opponents. You know the deal.
TENNESSEE OVER MINNESOTA BY 10
Take a straw poll vote and ask which team has been the more
pleasant surprise this season and the Vikings would be right near
the top. With as many wins in 2012 as all of last year, and picked to
fi nish in the cellar of the NFC North, Minny has knocked off a pair
of playoffs teams (the Lions and Niners) the last two weeks while
looking to retain its lead in the division. To that we borrow the words
of one of our favorite coaches, Lee Corso, who so poignantly says,
“Not so fast, my friend.” Not when teams in Game Five of the season,
playing off back-to-back SU underdog wins, are 0-12 SU and 1-11
ATS against opponents who won 5 or fewer games last year. And not
when you are 0-6 ATS in games off back-to-back SU underdog wins
when facing an opponent off a loss. A closer look at the Tennessee’s
24-point loss at Houston last week fi nds the Titans holding the potent
Texans to a season-low 297 yards. Toss in Marc’s ‘Super Five’ thesis
from the 2008 Black Book – involving the success of 1-3 NFL teams
in Game Five playing off a loss – and you’ve suddenly got a strong
dose of an upset in the making. With the invaders 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS
in their last fi ve frays against teams residing in the NFC North, we’ll
cast our ballot for the candidate from the great state of Tennessee.
Seattle over CAROLINA by 4
Both of these squads came oh-so-close to victory last week, only to walk
away with L’s in hand. The Panthers took hot ‘Lanta down to the wire in
a 2-point defeat when the Falcons kicked a 40-yard fi eld goal with fi ve
seconds remaining to stay unbeaten – after starting the drive from their
own 1-yard line with 59 seconds left in the game. Meanwhile, the Rams
used four fi eld goals, including a 60-yarder by Greg Zuerlein, to halt
Seattle’s two-game win streak. Looking to get back up off the mat, the
Seahawks point to a sterling 10-2 ATS non-division road dog log against
opponents off a pair of losses for a boost. The fact that the underdog is a
perfect 4-0 SUATS in rookie Russell Wilson’s NFL career is a spark. That and
the fact the chalk is 0-4 ATS in Carolina clashes this season fi ts like a rug
atop Marv Albert’s dome. Again.
NY JETS OVER Houston BY 3
We can hear the rumblings as this is being read. The God-awful
Jets, a 4* Best Bet against a hotter-than-Hades 4-0 SUATS Houston
contingent. But when you make your living being a contrarian
cashing in on opportune situations, you learn to develop a thick skin.
Meet the most callous call of the week on the NFL card. For openers,
favorites of more than 5 points in Game Five of the campaign who
are unblemished on both sides of the scorecard are just 3-7-1 ATS
since 1980, including 0-3-1 ATS when facing a foe off a loss of 6 or
more points. The Texans’ 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS mark in Game Fives
throughout their franchise history softens the storyline. As does
their dismal 1-3 SUATS all time record when performing under the
Monday night lights. Bring in a litany of Rex Ryan successes (5-1
SUATS versus undefeated opposition; 3-0 SUATS as a home dog
versus a foe off a win; 11-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when his club does not
own a winning record) and you can begin to appreciate the beauty
of an ugly dog. Toss in Marc’s NEVER SURRENDER article on page 2
and you’ve just learned the remedy for treating calluses. Apply and
enjoy the game.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
