Friday, October 26, 2012
College abd Pro Upsets Oct. 26-29
COLLEGE
MIAMI OHIO over Ohio U by 1
One game we will NOT be passing on takes place this afternoon in southwestern Ohio as the RedHawks look to reclaim the MAC East title from the Bobcats – who reclaimed it from them in 2011. Yes, the Bobbies are off to a 7-0 start and have cracked the BCS Top 25 for the first time in school history (which is a bit surprising to us considering their ridiculously weak strength of schedule: lined foes are 7-32 SU this season) but we will NOT be fooled. Not only do the road favorites arrive with a week of rust, err rest, they also enter Fred C. Yager Stadium severely ‘leaking oil’ as they have been outgained in each of their last three wins. Frank Solich’s squad is also an unlucky 0-13 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points versus an opponent off a spread loss of 15 or more points. This doesn’t bode well against a Miami Ohio group that is 11-2 ATS as a conference dog of more than 3 points against winning opposition, including 3-0 ATS at home. It may be that time of year as the fall festivals are in full swing, but the only bobbing we’re doing today in Ohio is with the Oxford hosts. And yes, down go the Bobbies. RedHawks, outright!
California over UTAH by 6
We mentioned earlier that there was no ‘Burning Love’ for BC head coach Frank Spaziani in Chestnut Hill. Well, to quote the King again (no, not Victor King), it’s ‘Now or Never’ for Cal’s Jeff Tedford. Tedford will need wins in three of the Bears’ fi nal four games to become bowl eligible and possibly save his job. And with Oregon still on the itinerary, this undoubtedly becomes a must. The good news for ‘Teddy Bear’ is that 3-5 road teams in Game Nine of the season who allow less than 30 PPG are 17-4 ATS when facing a sub .333 opponent. It also doesn’t hurt that the wounded Utes have been outgained in fi ve of six lined contests this season. With Utah losing outright (27-20 at Utah State) in their only favorite role to date – and Cal having already squared off against lined foes who own a 34-14 SU record – this should seem like a walk in the park for the Berkeley bunch. Or as Elvis might say, grab the points ASAP because ‘tomorrow may be too late.’
Mississippi over ARKANSAS by 3
If you’re aware that Ole Miss has dropped fi ve straight ATS in this series on the road, you still shouldn’t get too riled up over the Hogs. That’s because the guy on the sidelines for Mississippi, Hugh Freeze, is like money in the bank of late. He cranked out a 9-3 ATS ledger with Arkansas State before coming to Oxford and he’s directed what many expected to be a mediocre team to a 5-1 ATS run so far in 2012. Then we have the Hogs, one of the season’s biggest train wrecks, though they have managed back-to-back wins to halt a four-game losing streak. But the victories came against SEC bottom feeders Kentucky and Auburn, so we’re not sure Arkansas is up to the task of laying points to a winning foe with the better record. Hey, the Rebels own the better offense, the better defense, AND the better record. They also own much the better stats in games against three common opponents – Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M: Rebs +144 net yards in those contests; Pigs -451 net yards. That’s math even Honey Boo Boo can understand! Throw in a SMART BOX fade of the Razorbacks and we’ve got a genuine live dog on our hands. You know what to do.
MARSHALL over Ucf by 3
This won’t be easy. On the plus side of the ledger, the Herd owns the nation’s No. 4 offense, averaging a thundering 568 YPG. But when it comes to stopping the rush, Marshall’s ‘D’ – currently ranked No. 111 – might as
well be in Pamplona for the running of the bulls. After an impressive start, the Knights are stumbling, covering just one of their last fi ve outings, and were actually outstatted in a win over Memphis (yikes!). With an SMU
revenger on deck, this visit to coal country could see the mineshaft poised to collapse on the Floridians. Marshall really roughed up Southern Miss last week, 59-24, and off back-to-back previous home losses on a field where they stand 118-24 SU since 1992, the Herd will have their lights on tonight.
PRO PICK
INDIANAOPLIS over Tennessee by 6
Lots to like with each of these teams looking like winners of late. The Titans scratched and clawed their way to a 35-34 upset win in a shootout at Buffalo to lift themselves to 3-4 on the season while the Colts held off the Browns to pull even at 3-3. That combination opens a Pandora’s box for Tennessee. For openers, Indy brings a 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS mark on to the road against an opponent off a SU underdog win. The Colts, owners of the better offense and the better defense in this contest, are also 5-1 SUATS when .500 exact off a win versus a foe off a win. The Titans need to overcome a terrible 2-9 ATS record in games after scoring 35 or more points, including 0-4 ATS when facing a foe off a win. In addition, the Nashville Cats are just 1-5 ATS in games off a SU underdog win under Mike Munchak. The clincher, though, is this beauty from our powerful database: 3-3 NFL teams in Game Seven of the season, facing an opponent off a SUATS win, are 22-5 ATS since 1980 if they did not lose the money in their previous game and the Over/Under total in this game is set at more than 41 points. The good luck ‘Chuck Strong’ run of the Colts continues here.
Miami over NY JETS by 4
An AFC East rematch fi nds the Fish on the road looking to avenge a 23-20 overtime loss suffered against the Jets in Week Three of the season. In keeping with the starting rookie quarterback dog theme this year (now
18-8 ATS and counting), Ryan Tannehill has thus far exceeded expectations in Miami. Although his 76.5 QB Rating ranks in the bottom fi ve of the league, it is still higher than that of Mark Sanchez. The Dolphins’ 6-1-1 ATS mark as division dogs of less than 7 points shows their intense effort in AFC East contests. So does Miami’s 20-7 ATS road dog log of late, including 13-3 ATS against foes off a loss. Meanwhile, Rex Ryan continues to pout in games as a favorite when playing off a loss, going 4-8-1 ATS in his NFL career (1-4-1 ATS inside the division). Jets grounded at LaGuardia.
Oakland over KANSAS CITY by 6
In some circles, the announcement that Romeo Crennel has decided to go with Brady Quinn as his starter is akin to a self-induced resignation. After all, the not-so-mighty Quinn is just 3-10 SU in his NFL career as a starting quarterback. He’s also 0-2 ATS when favored, which makes him a post-time maiden in this contest. For what it’s worth, Romeo either had to make the change or continue to run into the ground behind Matt Cassel, currently the worst ranked passer in the league with a QB Rating of 66.2. It all brings us to the Raiders who are the epitome of a good dog and a bad favorite if ever there was one, as the Black-and-Silver are
16-3 ATS as division road dogs since 2007. They are also 5-0 SUATS in their last visits to Arrowhead. With the Chiefs a bipolar opposite 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS as division chalk, you know where our allegiance is in this contest.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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