IN SEARCH OF THE FINAL FOUR ON KENTUCKY OAKS DAY

Casual sports fans are probably aware of what will take place at Churchill Downs on Saturday and, given the state of the sports landscape, television ratings figure to be robust.

In terms of intrigue, however, racing fans may be looking forward more to the Run for the Lillies: New school speedster Gamine vs. throwback Swiss Skywalker is a classic matchup.

But for horseplayers, it’s about the Benjamins, and if form holds, there won’t be many of those when Friday’s 13th race and finale is made official.

Race 10: Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: By My Standards (7-5)

THE BET: McKinzie (8-5) to win

EXOTICA: Exacta box those two. Key both first and second in super-exotics, completing the play with Silver Dust (15-1) and Owendale (6-1)

Grade 1 La Troienne

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Monomoy Girl (4-5)

THE BET: Exacta key-box Monomoy Girl with Horologist (4-1), Vexatious (4-1) and She’s A Julie (6-1)–extra tickey with Monomoy Girl on top

EXOTICA: Key Monomoy Girl on top, with three exacta fillies in super-exotics, and include Lady Kate (15-1) third and/or fourth

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Gamine (1-1)

THE BET: Speech (5-1) to win at 4-1 or greater, three-horse exacta box including Swiss Skydiver (8-5)

EXOTICA: Super-exotics part wheel using exacta fillies first and second with each other, adding Donna Veloce (15-1), Shedaresthedevil (20-1) and Hopeful Growth (30-1) third and fourth.

Grade 2 Churchill Turf Sprint

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Bound for Nowhere (3-1)

THE BET: Diamond Oops (8-1) to win

EXOTICA: Three-horse exacta box with the two above, including Extravagant Kid (7-2)

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12 Responses

  1. 9th race Sharing is going to take some beating, 6/5 seems generous. Seems too fast for this bunch with 4 works, 2 bullets, A win at Churchill and never worse than second at the distance. 3 with the 1,2.

    10th race Another short priced horse coming off a good second in the Whitney. McKinzie doesn’t seem to be the same horse running figures much slower than last year. Neither standout or throwout. 6 with the 1,2,7

    11th race 1,2 with 8 and let’s hope one of them comes and gets her. Reverse, just because.

    12th race The Kentucky Oaks. This race does seem to have a little value to it. Gamine and Baffert are going to take all the money and what’s ever left Swiss Skydiver will take leaving the field ripe for a payday. Speech who lost to Gamine by a neck in May has had 5 works, one bullet and is coming off the best race of her life. I understand it’s later in the year and these 3 year olds have had a chance to develop and it is Baffert.
    BUT Gamine has never been looked in the eyeball, has run faster then any 3 year old on the planet, twice in a row and these are fillies. She has never been this distance of ground, never raced at 2 (her bottom could be suspect) and never raced on 27 days or less. 4 with the 1,3,5,7
    Let’s go get the bad guys !

  2. Vincent, hope you’re right about Gamine, although will say no one has looked her in the eye c/c they can’t keep up with her. I’m suing defensively. Only thing I don’t like about her is that she’s everybody’s wise guy horse.

    As for McKinzie, I’ll take the five pounds from the fave and take my chances. I’m not holding his defeat in the Met Mile against him.

    1. Kim God bless, thanks for the update. Most know about King Guillermo by now but vertical bettors will appreciate hearing about Bound for Nowhere.

      Happy Derby weekend, stay safe…

  3. How can anyone seriously dare making picks days ahead of post time is absurd to me especially when track conditions are in limbo ! This is not basketball,hockey or even football! Track conditions may influence strategies,post posititions change their innate abilities since some animals have better Dna,breeding on wet tracks than others.49r,Alydar and many others bred horses that ran well on off tracks,just like Sadlers Wells did with turf. Many ,if not most, readers of P P don’t read or have time for such intricacies.Too bad,just like rarely paying attention to weight differences,except maybe for the Big A inner track wintry races. One more reason why I skip off track conditioned tracks,Small field in which only owners have an assured check after the race. Check these races out on Thursday,yesterday: 3rd race Four horses.1st race Six.8th race Six.9nth race THREE !?! 10 the race Six. That’s 26 horses out of Five Races ! Come on, why bother with betting such miniscule fields,And Waiting some 20 plus minutes between races?? Talk about addiction and dependency ! It’s just not enough that the purses are way too high for cheap claiming races( Gulfstream,$ 12 K claimers with a purse of over $ 30 k ??? ) But give patrons,addicted bettors,little or no value since a long shot rarely wins such races,or Worse yet,like in thursday’s Saratoga s card, there are no horses over single digit odds at post time! How can You,addicted gambler, even Consider betting such putrid choice??? “It’s Good to be an Owner” in such situations because even when they lose they cash an over generous unmerited check( of over $6-8K ) !” Gotta be in it”! Yeah,but won’t see my $ contributing to such sting !

  4. It’s what public handicappers do, provide a service as far in advance as possible then let the bettors decide whether they value the information. Sting?

    Mr Romano, you’ve been banned once before but I believe in second and sometimes even third chances.

    But if you can’t maintain a respectful tone while making your point, then go away. You have had much to say yet you contribute very little positive input to help everyone. Until then, why don’t you stop wasting everybody’s time and troll some other chat space?

  5. She Dares the Devil shares the same sire as Swiss Skywalker, Daredevil. She set a new Oaks record. Impressive race for Brad Cox charge.

    1. Mal, one too many impressive Brad Cox races for my taste, though that filly was an overlay in the straight pool. Had a good tight sheets pattern and was forward. And ‘Flo’ was in an absolute zone!

  6. The Diamond Ops win and the Extravagant Ex Box call saved the day John Boy. A nice surprise when looking at the results earlier this morning. Whatever Network I was viewing on yesterday cut over to Hockey so I didn’t see the last race. By the way, Islanders Game 7 televised at 7:00 tonight. So tough to choose between the two old schools later today. Also not counting out Baffert. He knows so we’ll just how to be ready for the big dances. Thinking of an SF boxing your final four and simply enjoying the race. I haven’t looked as yet, but more interested in your calls on the rest of the card. Riders Up and a safe journey to all.

    1. McD,
      How are you doing this fine Derby Day?

      After all my bellyaching, I finally get to bet dime supers in the Derby. Here they are:

      1st: 17
      2nd: 10, 15, 16, 18
      3rd: 10, 15, 16, 18
      4th: 10, 15, 16, 18

      1st: 17
      2nd: 2, 8
      3rd: 2, 8, 15, 16
      4th: 2, 8, 10, 15, 16,

    2. Me, too, though a little disappointed in the straight price on ‘Oops’. Julien rode with scary confidence. Like when a guy throws up some impossible 3-pointer: “Great shot!”

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