Saratoga Springs, August 10, 2022 — Feature race selections roll on. We will continue our trusted work routine: 1) Handicapping 101 X’s and O’s, class, race-shape, pace, etc., etc. 2) Thoro-Graph analysis 3) Race Replay Review, and will share the fruits of that labor.
A safe and speedy journey to us all as we race our way through life. And please, stay safe.
SPA THURSDAY GALWAY STAKES
The Skinny: Lots of promising three year old fillies sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs on the Mellon Course is a wide open affair. Given the nature of the beast, this is no news flash. The first question to be answered is will Empress Tigress (5-2) remain undefeated in her third lifetime start.
The answer is yes–if she’s able to control the race flow as she did winning one of these earlier at the meet. Logically, she should be facing more pressure from a deeper field, including maiden Poppy Flower (5-1) who came very close to nailing her right at the line but ran out of ground.
We’re looking at a filly who has been consistently slower on performance figures but may be ready to explode. Breeze Easy (4-1) showed much improved early speed, setting a pressured pace going a mile at Belmont Park, the Euro import has tons of experience and her lines indicate she likes shorter trips.
We think that Christophe Clement would agree–he picked the spot after all, and she’ll need delicate handling–close enough to maintain contact but without either being hard used or left wit too much to do. New pilot Flavien Prat is good at managing problems like these. Alas, we shall see.
We’re taking her to win but–late scratches notwithstanding–require she maintain early line odds or higher for straight wagering. Exotically, we shall key-box some Dime Superfectas looking for a moon shot. We’ll include the two named earlier, of course, and add Have a Good Day (10-1), Makin My Move (10-1) and Derrynane (5-1) to the mix.
SPA WEDNESDAY TALE OF THE CAT STAKES
When you think there’s a reasonable chance to upset at Chad Brown-trained favorite, you take it. There were three viable choices but we landed on Mr Phil (3-1) who’s improved for the current connections, exits a key race, has a top figure that’s competitive enough, but mostly a horse for distance (4) 2-2-0, has speed, an outside post with Kendrick Carmouche in a small-field one-turn 7-furlongs. A square price would be somewhere around 5-2.
this is a live dairy to be updated throughout the week