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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

A PLAN OF ATTACK FOR TODAY’S RACES IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND SOUTH FLORIDA

At this posting, it appears that the thunderstorms expected in Saratoga overnight did not develop although there remains a chance of an isolated storm later this morning. The intensity is anyone’s guess.

Thus, the selections are made guardedly knowing that conditions on the ground, and/or any biases that may develop, should determine final decisions. Otherwise, we’re planing on a main track rated fast but with possible moisture in it.

SARATOGA: G3 SARANAC:

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—VANZZY (7-2) [Off Turf: Three Technique (6-1)]

THE BET—BYE BYE MELVIN (12-1) to win at 8-1 or greater, key-boxing exactas with Vanzzy, Embolden (8-1) and Don Juan Kitten (4-1)

EXOTICA—Adding Big Dreaming (12-1) and Irish Mias (12-1) to the super-exotics mix

G2 AMSTERDAM

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—YAUPON (8-5)

THE BET—BASIN (7-2) to win at 3-1 or better, key-boxing exactas with Yaupon and Long Weekend (9-5)

EXOTICA—Adding Wondrwherecraigis (10-1) to the super-exotics mix

GRADE 1 FOREGO

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—WHITMORE (7-2)

THE BET—MIND CONTROL (6-1) to win at 9-2 or greater, exacta key-box with Whitmore and Fortin (6-1)

EXOTICA—Adding Win Win Win (12-1) and Complexity (4-1) to the super-exotics mix

GRADE 1 SWORD DANCER

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—SADLER’S JOY (5-2)

THE BET—AQUAPHOBIA (3-1) to win at 5-2 or greater

EXOTICA—Adding Corelli (6-1) and Channel Maker (6-1) to the super-exotics mix

GULFSTREAM PARK: SUSAN’S GIRL

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—GO JO JO GO (8-5)

THE BET—PRINCESS SECRET (9-5) to win at 8-5 or greater, exacta box with Go Jo Jo Go

EXOTICS—Adding Freak 2nd and 3rd in super-exotics mix.

AFFIRMED STAKES

MOST PROBABLE WINNER—BREEZE ON BY (6-5)

THE BET—BREEZE ON BY to win, no price restrictions, exacta box with Advance Cash (20-1), extra ticket Breeze On By on top

EXOTICA—Super-exotics wheel Breeze On By with ALL with Advance Cash with ALL

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48 Responses

  1. John,

    Not one of the best betting cards at Saratoga. Weather could be a problem. Here is my two cents.
    7th race at the spa. In a race that seems to have a million angles I ended up with Long Weekend. 9/5 is a little short but Tom Amoss is not having a great meet. Time to pay the feed bill. Saez should put him on the lead after his 4F work in 48 flat. seventh best of 49. Basin doesn’t seem to be the same horse but he is first time Pletcher and a grade one winner. Yaupon gets the acid test and premier star might be worth using.
    8th. A grade one sprint featuring some hard hitting horses. I like Mind Control @ 6-1. Great value from a horse that actually ran further than the favorite in last. A better post would increase the bet so pay attention to the scratches and the track. He would seem to like it fast but he’s never been off the board in Saratoga. Your call. Firenze Fire shows up every time but loses Ortiz to Complexity(Ortiz may have first call on all brown’s horses) and to play the gimmicks you would have to go pretty deep using.the 2,6,8,11.
    9th race. This race if on the turf makes me lean towards what should be an overlay. 6-1 on the ML he very well could go off higher. The selection here is Corelli. Now I realize he hasn’t won in 2 years and that’s a negative but. His best race was a good 2nd in August last year in GB where he got beat a head at today’s distance. He ran the same figure in his last that the winner had (Aquaphobia) is third off a layoff where Aquaphobia has not had a break since last year.The favorite continually finds ways to get beat while still putting up good numbers, Cross Border is going to take money due to his 5/5 at Saratoga and his numbers are not as good as the rest of the field with no real back numbers to get excited over. Channel Maker is 0/5 this year but does have back numbers to make him relevant and Pedro Cara is the unknown so how can we lose him. My bet here is the (5) with the 2,4,7,8.
    “Let’s go get the bad guys.”

  2. VO,

    Good points throughout, I cam thisclose to taking your horse off his good try at Monmouth and agree he looks forward today. In the end, opted to err on the side of Maker…

  3. Thanks C, gratefully, there was no catching me yesterday–even though I tried to make it close for a while!

  4. You gave us a $41.00 winner and exacta, nice. I enjoyed Win Win Win’s Zenyatta impersonation closing from last to win Forego. Imagine having Complexity and you are watching from the rail. You’re going to win and then John Imbriale informs you that, hold on Johnny, the race isn’t quite over yet. That one hurt, for those who needed Complexity. Win Win Win had that little mishap in last year’s Dy, nice to see him get this one. I think he did well in last year’s Preakness, also.

    1. Win Win Win is a Nice Nice Nice horse. Personally was too chicken to pull the trigger, that was a my bad.

  5. Confused WOW (War of Will) with Win Win Win. WOW won last year’s Preakness and Win Win Win clocked in 7th. WOW got tangled up with MAX in Derby, not WWW.

  6. Why was my brain wispereing “Corman, Corman, Corman” after catching up with the results.

    Sadly I was caught up in the events of the day, “Honey Do” list, etc., before flipping on the NYRA coverage at around 4:00. No shoulda mind you, only woulda on this one. Repeating “Paul Corman, Corman, Corman”. I should have noticed race three on the program, and wagered earler. Live and learn. Congrats to all who cashed on John’s latest “bet against yourself”. Sweet exacta price John Boy. Your Tri horse just missed in fourth as well on the exotica. I hope Tony gets a nice Pricci Italian meal and a bottle of your best red special with the AWD proceeds.

    And your on for the clean up after as well my friend. Lol. Nice call. I grew up hearing tales of “Swaps” coming out of the fog at the old Jamaica track. I guess this was a similar type of race. The horse came out of nowhere.

    1. She has that night out coming, soon as we think it’s safe. My fear is that it will be a very, very long time. Think handicappers guess? No one knows enough about this and other viruses to come. Mother Nature enjoying a spot of revenge at the moment…

  7. Cornman owned Win with Sally Bailey (trainer) and one other. Purchased as yearling for 7.5k. Gelding won more than 1m on turf. John Henry ran him down in Arlington Million. They bought this NY Bred in Saratoga sale.

  8. KP, Thanks for the history but I remember “Win” & Paul quite well. Remember Paul touting him on the Harvey Pack show. Just laughing at myself for not having wagered is all. I have asked John Pricci for a long, long while now if he might consider approaching Paul C. in co-authoring a book on their shared best stories, humerous tales, and counsel on horseracing in general.

    1. I’ll ask Paul but doubt he’d have the interest or the energy…will get back to you on this.

  9. Win was 2nd to John Henry in the Turf Classic, not Arlington Million. Won 9 races and 720k as of 1983 when the three owners got into a dispute and the horse was sidelined. Something to do with only one person being designated managing owner to make decisions. One of the owners, not Cornman, wanted Antonio Grael removed as rider of Win. Sally Bailie and Cornman didn’t agree. John Henry cost 25k as a claimer and won more than 5m. I remember watching in 1981 when JH beat The Bart at the wire in Arlington Million. NBC called The Bart the winner but it was John Henry.

    1. First time I was ever asked to do a hit on national TV. I got lucky. How could you pick against America’s John Henry, really?

      1. Went to his Wikipedia page and learned that there are two (2) statues of him at racetracks. One at Arlington and one at Santa Anita. Over 6m in career earnings. In Horse Racing Hall of Fame, also. Former claimer, amazing.

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