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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

BETTORS ALABAMA BOUND

On paper, it’s very difficult to get away from the two early favorites; Dunbar Road (8-5) and Point of Honor (5-2).

When last seen, Dunbar Road was a most impressive the Grade 2 Mother Goose at Belmont Park and Chad Brown–who has kept this filly away from his other divisional star, Guarana–she’s going to Parx’s Cotillion.

Dunbar Road is 3-for-4 lifetime and has all the pedigree needed to handle the 10 furlongs of the storied Spa Grade 1 for 3-year-old fillies. The rail position, moderating speed signed on and Jose Ortiz fits the dynamics well.

Meanwhile, Point of Honor, who has pointed to this all spring and summer, was a very good second to the aforementioned Guarana in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks at the Spa after racing wide virtually throughout.

While these two loom as the most probable winners, there are some interesting sophomores that make this more than a two-filly affair.

Champagne Anyone (10-1) chased the CCAO pace throughout–not her best go–coming off a short break and likely was too fresh. She beat both favorites in Gulfstreams G2 Oaks, She should revert to a patient tack here.

Fast working Street Band (10-1) is coming off a fast open-lengths score in the G3 Indiana Oaks, a race that produced a next out winner from two starters. Another short-range stalker, her chances are also trip dependent.

Steve Asmussen and Brian Cox also has two sharp fillies who are capable–if they raise their game; Lady Apple (6-1) and Ulele (8-1), respectively.

Even if 10 furlongs generally is enough to separate contenders from pretenders, tactics of many of the best riders in the game will determine the outcome.

We’ll take the filly with a race over the track, G2 winner Point of Honor for George Weaver, profitable in LAY-2 scenarios, who should benefit from a more contested pace. Javier Castellano will make the last run a winning one.

Taking her to win, needed close to 2-1 to wager, will box the exacta with Dunbar Road and fill out super-exotics with Champagne Anyone and Street Band.

YESTERDAY: Montauk Daddy was used too hard early and stopped late in the Skidmore, third; ridiculous price saved win-bet money. Other two keys, including the maiden, combined for a decent TRI in small field with two favorites on the board.

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5 Responses

  1. The Alabama. The purse is only $600,000! Looks like Jose is gonna win his third in a row. These stake races are a win win for wealthy owners; they simply can’t lose. They put up $9,600 to enter their blue blood and at a minimum will get back $18,000. Pretty cool.

    What’s the Alabama gonna do for me? Nine entrants with maybe three that I can toss confidently. The two favorites look on paper as the likely first two finishers (no money here, Alice). And if they are upset, good luck in plucking the ‘bomb’.

    Heading southeast to the shore.

  2. Yes, I will be asking Sam to play it again. A fact, a truth should not be ignored. All the owners of the entrants in the Alabama will be guaranteed to at least make a 100% profit on their initial expense to get into the race, but most of the owners will make substantially more money. How many bettors put $9,000 through the window and are guaranteed to never lose and to double their money at a minimum?
    How many bettors will win $9,000 in two plus minutes, two months, two years (or enough for a pastrami sandwich and beer today, Alice)?

    Or, stated another way, where is the financial risk the owners of the horses entered in the Alabama face?

  3. ALABAMA:
    Point of Honor,Off Topic
    Point of Honor,Off Topic,Dunbar Road
    Point of Honor,Off Topic,Dunbar Road,Street Band
    Point of Honor,Off Topic,Dunbar Road,Street Band,Champagne Anyone

    PACIFIC CLASSIC:
    Quip, Seeking The Soul,Mongolian Groom
    Quip, Seeking The Soul,Mongolian Groom,Pavel,Tenfold
    Quip, Seeking The Soul,Mongolian Groom,Pavel,Tenfold
    Quip, Seeking The Soul,Mongolian Groom,Pavel,Tenfold

  4. I, if you split the ‘Bama favorites, you should get paid…

    As stated, took Tenfold off a five-second view of him in the paddock…

    Quip very logical but may be pace dependent; again only the two double-digit horses on the outside would be a surprise; anything else goes…

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