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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


So, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17 yet he is the 3-5 early line choice to win Derby-146. Can you say statistical anomaly?

Let’s not forget that Big Brown won the Derby from post 20–from an auxiliary gate; no such issues this time.

The only issue could be the break. He’s drawn directly inside the high quality speed of #18 Authentic with the very tactical quality of #15 Ny Traffic who will be asked from the jump by Paco Lopez to gain position.

Between the three is #16 Honor A.P. who makes up with late kick what he lacks in early lick. It will be up to Mike Smith to break on time and drop over searching for a little ground to save.

Meanwhile, Manny Franco has to break sharply and cleanly and establish outside position tracking the speed. He needs to ride Tiz the Law like the best horse because he is the best horse.

The best horse often gets beaten. That’s why it’s called gambling.

Off the top, good draws were had by #2 Max Player, a late runner who will save ground; #6 for King Guillermo is good, neutral ground; Samy Camacho will have some options.

Bob Baffert’s tactical #10 Thousand Words has drawn what can be a perfect post for him.

This lineup has the earmarks of a real barn burner. Can’t wait!

The Field for DERBY-146

1-Finnick the Fierce (50-1) Martin Garcia

2-Max Player (30-1) Ricardo Santana Jr.

3-Enforceable (30-1) Adam Beschizza

4-Storm the Court (50-1) Julien Leparoux

5-Major Fed (50-1) James Graham

6-King Guillermo (20-1) Samy Camacho

7-Money Moves (20-1) Javier Castellano

8-South Bend (50-1) Tyler Gaffalione

9-Mr. Big News (50-1) Gabriel Saez

10-Thousand Words (15-1) Florent Geroux

11-Necker Island (50-1) Miguel Mena

12-Solo Volante (30-1) Luca Panici

13-Attachment Rate (50-1) Joe Talamo

14-Winning Impression (50-1) Joe Rocco Jr.

15-NyTraffic (20-1) Paco Lopez

16-Honor A.P. (5-1) Mike Smith

17-Tiz the Law (3-5) Manny Franco

18-Authentic (8-1) Johnny Velazquez

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21 Responses

  1. Tiz drew post 17, but because this year’s Derby is not a full field of 20 horses, the number one post will be vacated, therefore, Tiz actually leaves from post 18. Yes, I know CD will recognize 17 as the winning post if he wins. It the same when a horse that draws post one leaves from post 2 in a short field. The winning statistic credit the #1 slot. Crazy, but that how it is, but it shouldn’t be. It’s misleading info

  2. Misleading?

    2020 = Misleading.

    You’re right about the positioning, of course, but should he win, it will be #17, Tiz the Law…

  3. Post 16 is ok for HAP.. I’m really intrigued about his placement. I think Mike will want to keep Tiz in his sights, but he’s got to ride his horse, not Tiz. I think the colt is more nimble than people might think because of his size, and we may find out because it’s the Derby and it’s going to be crazy. The good thing is he has tactical speed and he’s versatile. He’s also coming into the race as good as I’ve ever seen him, so for everyone’s sake, just give us a fast track, sunny weather and a clean race.

    I’m so sorry about Art Collector, who deserved the chance to run and win the Derby. I remember how it felt to wake up on Derby Day 1992 to find out AP Indy had been scratched – it’s a punch to the gut. I’m so sorry for his classy connections, also – but at least the colt’s injury isn’t serious.

    1. Bets, a true fan! I feel same way about Art Collector b/c I wanted to see him against Tiz.

      Agree that HAP is more athletic than perhaps a horse his size would allow, and correct that Mike has to ride his own horse. I’m sure the plan will be, if they can, to move when Tiz moves and try to grab him from behind. I can get interesting.

      I’d like to see a little head to head battle — but no one has gotten close to Tiz recently…

      1. You always want to beat the best – and these animals really do put their lives on the line for us; they are so beautiful, but so fragile …

        I believe HAP is the best horse that Tiz has faced – so now we’ll see if he’s as good as I think, lol.

        Head to head, blaze to blaze, lol

  4. let me be the first to make my bet on the Derby —-
    going to keep it simple —

    .50 tri. bet — #17 tiz the law over #2 max player #6 king guillermo #15 n.y.traffic #16 honor a.p. = $6.00

    that is it – i still believe in tiz the law – not going to change now – $6.00 is all i am going to wager — because it is the Derby and i must place a wager.

    This Fri. and Sat. – 2 good days of wagering – looking forward to it.

    1. Kim, thanks so much for the superfecta news. Guess CDI figured that without any members of the 1% betting $1000s live on track, they had to accommodate the simulcast audience.

      I would like to see comparisons from off track super handle year over year. Probably won’t out-handle but the figures will be interesting…

  5. also – FYI for those who might have missed the news from Churchill —

    This Fri. and Sat. there will be .10 super wagering available on all races

    Might also do a .10 super 1 x 5 x 5 x 5 = $ 6.00 — with Tiz The Law on top

  6. sorry for the delayed response – birthday today – phone calls – people – food -you know the drill —

    not a fan of authentic or thousand words { distance issues to me – i could be wrong – but }

    might lean for a deep closer to pick up the pieces – enforceable or sole volante

    i had art collector and carcarco – but they scratched in place of max and king

    1. Getting to this now so I’m sorry, too, and a delayed Happy Birthday. We celebrate birthday weeks, so there’s that…

      Yes, not the stoutest of pedigrees but good horses often outrun their bloodlines. Something else, too.

      Handicappers talk about 1-1/4 miles but a) it’s SEP, not MAY, and b) many Derbies are won by the eighth pole and class takes you the rest of the way. The two favorites certainly are not light on pedigree…

      May your horses have a safe and speedy journey…

  7. Don’t remember if an odds- on horse ever lost because of its post position and not about jockey’s tactics,indecisions,distance,traffic. In some countries ,like Italy,17 is a negative number,a disgrace,malocchio,bad luck.But it will be difficult to go against the Tiz,its numbers and even recent am workouts. Even Chantal Sunderland,the best looking professional ,and sometimes winning ,female jockey I ever saw could enjoy her ride to victory on top of Tiz the Law. The problem will be how many longshots does one use underneath TTL besides 16 and 18 and which numbers to use for an eventual boxed exacta ,triple just in case M Franco fails to keep the train on its track without zig zagging on the track. Hoping that a deserved longhie gets in the money or in the exacta.

    1. As for the exotics, we’ll have some ideas on how to attack that problem that later in the week.

      To paraphrase, “he was just 17, you know what I mean, and the way he looks is way beyond compare…”

      The post will keep him out of trouble, save for unknowable problems, and if good enough, Tiz will win it.

  8. The unusual date for this year’s Derby card, the lack of fans etc. has had no effect on my excitement for Derby Day. I have the same level of anticipation on Wednesday that I always do; perhaps even more since there is a rare emotional attachment to Tiz.

    It’s a long day with 14 races, and I traditionally haven’t had my best days on big stakes card days, so I like to cap these races during the week and make a plan in advance of where I want to attack, and where I want to let races pass in terms of multis (barring an unforseen overlay)

    1. Good plan, great attitude. A safe and speedy journey to all your horses. I took a quick look at the last six races on each day. Wow, great stuff… enjoy!

  9. I’m looking at Friday Kentucky Oaks day.

    9th race Sharing is going to take some beating, 6/5 seems generous. Seems to fast for this bunch with 4 works, 2 bullets, A win at Churchill and never worst than second at the distance. 3 with the 1,2.
    10th race Another short priced horse coming off a good second in the Whitney. McKinzie doesn’t seem to be the same horse running figures much slower than last year. Neither standout or throwout. 6 with the 1,2,7
    11th race 1,2 with 8 and let’s hope one of them comes and gets her. Reverse just because.
    12th race The Kentucky Oaks. This race does seem to have a little value to it. Gamine and Baffert are going to take all the money and what’s ever left Swiss Skydiver will take leaving the field ripe for a payday. Speech who lost to Gamine by a neck in May has had 5 works, one bullet and is coming off the best race of her life. I understand it’s later in the year and these 3 year olds have had a chance to develop and it is Baffert BUT she has never been looked in the eyeball, has run faster then any 3 year old on the planet, twice in a row and these are fillies. She has never been this distance of ground, never raced at 2 (her bottom could be suspect) and never raced on 27 days or less. 4 with the 1,3,5,7
    Let’s go get the bad guys !

  10. As I was driving n I95N thorough unbreathable muggy ,soupy air I hear that the great Tom Weaver has died.Had to stop and absorb what the the at the Fan,66 am were saying as 1000s of beautiful Long Island,what else, memories were crossing my mind about Seaver,his looks,
    his throwing style,his winning ways,smile,pretty wife,his numbers,his teammates and what he represented not justin Queens it all of Long island,from Flushing to Montauk.He was more than the Mick,number 7 and Jeter combined.Had to be there to now an feel the respect,affection that most of us,Lawguyland kids ,had for him,whether watching throw strikes over channel 9 or when trading cards.I dunno,I was moved on hearing his departure from this Earth as if ,we were part of his family and glory.1969 was NY s best year in sports. Knicks,Jets,Mets,all won championships and while Joe Namath,Reed represented their respective teams Seaver seemed our idol mre than those other heroes.Stop here,I still got some 700 miles to go while I will reminisce while listening to as my New York radio guides,66 and 88 am on the dial as we silently respect the man,Marine,Hall of Famer and all around great guy who later in life became a wine grower whose first bottled wine got a 96
    from Wine Spectator magazine.All in all,everything he did turned into Gold. A rare person among us all.We had reasons to adulate him in our teen years. Thanks,Tom Seaver,you our lives happier,prouder.Lime disease was one of his crippling ailments.He was 75 but my image of him remains intact at his early 30 s before being traded away. Thanks !

    1. I’m old old Yankees, Giants and Knicks, although did switch to Islanders when I had a family on Long Island. Actually shared season tickets with the late trainer, Joe Trovato.

      Having said that, I loved Seaver, not only for his talent but for his spirit and competitiveness. I liked him as a broadcaster, too. Big fig of 96 in Wine Spectator as a first-time starter is something else!

      I said on Twitter how sad it was to hear. But more than Lime Disease, it was a rare form of Dementia that has ill effects on the body and mind, and their were complications due to Covid-19.
      #HoaxKillsAnother #RIP41

  11. The curse of Apollo got broken and a gelding could never win curse got broken, so I’m not at all concerned about his post position. On the slim chance that he gets beaten it seems highly unlikely that it will be his post position that beats him. It would probably be something else that we have no way of knowing yet. Another thing is I was once told a “system” that the way to pick the Kentucky Derby is to pick a horse that has a reason he can’t win, such as the curse of Apollo, or being a gelding, or in this case the #17 post position of Tiz The Law.

    1. Frederick,

      Well, I’m not taking Curse-17 seriously, believing that that is a hoax, and agree too that if he is beaten it’s for reasons unknown before the race is run, I agree. Thanks for weighing in…

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