HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, August 28, 2026 – A handicapping colleague called this week to tell me he was feeling my pain—and I knew exactly what he meant.
I have been and continue to struggle at one of the most challenging Spa meets I ever experienced. And it’s probable that reduced confidence has contributed to these woes.
Going into the Travers Eve card, my running totals for the meet read (37) 9-10-7.
“Don’t get me wrong,” he said. “Batting 50% in exacts for top choices is solid. No, I’ve been making a few dollars with you because your second choices either combined for an exacta or the value demanded that I bet your second choice to win. Hope you did the same.”
Yes, and no.
I learned that philosophy the first time I visited Pimlico and met one of my handicapping dols, Clem Florio, and sought his advice.
“If you’re like me, Florio said, “I try to sweep every card with my picks, but when it comes to gambling, you’ve got to know when to bet on your second or third choices.”
I tried that but two things were wrong: I felt guilty betting against a horse I gave out to the public, and there was too much zigging when I should have been zagging instead. The advent of vertical wagering solved some of this dilemma.
As far as my 2026 Saratoga slate, I knew looking back that the second choices should have been the preference but I was pressing, playing it safe, believing a short-price winner, that could key a multi-race wager, was the right way to go.
Two things: You’ll never win if you’re afraid to lose ,and you just cannot be all things to all people.
So, today, a new wrinkle has been added to our A-B-C grades: A horses will be those that offer the best value, in our opinion; B’s are serios contenders that fit both categories; C’s in the main are either money finishing price shots or favorites that appear vulnerable
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G1 H ALLEN JERKENS Race 8
A: 2-DEEP FLAME 3-1 much improved speed this summer, carefully pointed to this
B: 4-ENGLISHMAN 3-5
C: 3-Solitude Dude 6-1
G1 PERSONAL ENSIGN Race 9
A: 2-FULLY SUBSCRIBED 6-5 loves this trip, big late kicker, very sharp work for this
B: 4-SCOTTISH LASSIE 7-7
C: 5-Smart Shopper 12-1
G2 LAKE PLACID Race 10
A: 5-NAOMIS 3-1 came to U.S. seeking Grade 1, classy, loves trip, fresh for Chad/Prat
B: 1-QUEEN OF HAWAII 5-2
C:4-Deep Learning 4-1, 3-Flowerhead 15-1
G1 FOREGO Race 11
A: 1-TIP TOP THOMAS 6-1 very game tough trip return, 7-furlong ‘s excellent spot,
B: 6-SENIOR OFFICER 7-2, 5-BOOK ‘EM DANNO 1-1
C: 4-Crazy Mason 12-1, 3-T Kraft 20-1
G1 BALLERINA Race 12
A: 2-KILWIN 6-1 fits speedy race shape, 1-for-1 here, 2-for-2 at trip, Jose O
B: 7-WAYS AND MEANS 9-5, 10-R DISASTER 5-1, 12-ECLATANT 3-1
C: 5-Grammy Girl 30-1
GRADE 1 TRAVERS STAKES Race 13
A: 3-NAPOLEON SOLO 8-1 loves surface, brilliant works. controlling speed, right pilot/post
B: 7-SEA STRIKE 5-1, 4-THE PUMA 8-1
C: 10-Silent Tactic 10-1, 9-Golden Tempo 5-2, 5-Renegade 3-1
11 Responses
” In order to be the Champ,,,gotta beat the current Champ”
Absolutely–it’s a fascinating Travers!
John, first off thanks for the hard work analysis-always appreciated. I understand your new clarification process leaning toward value which is essential in playing this game for profit.
Jon Stettin offers the advice that you should create the fewest amounts of losing tickets. His advice to bettors is to wager to win on a a preferred selection that you really feel is a strong selection. Then you key this horse on top of two other horses in exactas. No reverse.
I know you stated years ago that you knew two successful professional players who played in a similar fashion.
Myself, i have been burned too may times in exactas while leaving out a good place payoff; therefore i play win/place and my bankroll generally avoid the roller coaster up and down syndrome.
good luck John with your selections
Point very well made.
Depending on price, I too make win-place wagers, then add two horses to complete exactas, hopefully optimizing my returns.
Have a great day, Jack, et al …
Jack and John,
Duplicate the aforesaid regarding “the hard work and analysis” provided to the HRI Faithful. John’s gift to us each week is always appreciated indeed. I plan on wagering a Pick 3 ticket on John’s preferred selections in races 11,12, and 13, as each “A” selection offers solid value.
I will also keep our long silent HRI friend Indulto in play on this Summer Derby day as well, and will be mixing in a few small budget Ex, Tri, and ten cent SF tickets throughout Races 8 to 13 in his memory.
You are never really gone Indulto, if we the faithful still speak of you fondly.
Riders Up! And a safe journey to all involved today.
P.S. I appreciated reading the past comments on the Whitney Stakes.
Always a real pleasure hearing from you McD and classy of you to include Indulto in your and our thoughts.
A Happy Summer Derby Day to you as well.
May your wagers go forth and multiply!
Nice touch McD
Exciting Travers though we finished second with Napoleon Solo at almost click below 8/1. My 3/1 place price made the race transaction a positive one.
We all know that survival in this game we have to be a good loser by avoiding “tilt”. The losing sequences are unavoidable and I am involved in one at this time. The win-place model has me cashing tickets which avoids a huge bankroll drawdown.
Agreed Jack, the place price was more than fair and it helped to compensate at bit but I was overall disappointed with the results as we used ‘Napoleon’ and The Puma 1-2-3 in all the gimmicks–who did not have the smoothest of trips, pretty costly I must say.
I thought the speed was going to win at midstretch, the rail trip and the pressure certainly took its toll the last 50 yards …
Tough game!
Agreed. The frustrating part is once the gates open the ‘chaos’ factor runs its course. I used the 4 and 7 in exactas also. Good bet bad result as they say. We catch em next time.
Your analysis was spot on; so we run the race 100 times and we make good money.
Be well John.
Had a Big Question (?) on Leading Change with it’s two wins in different tracks and going longer,of course. But he has already stretched fron 6F to 1 1/16, so could he be the unknown ‘ ready’ horse? After two sets of bets I ventured with 2-79354 in exactas. It helped the losses on 7 and 9 n top. Was questioning Ortiz move to be inside until I saw the replay more than once.God idea but then a wall was created so he was forced to stay there which ma have been an uncomfortable position for Golden Tempo and maybe by then he was getting tired.Can’t always get what you want,even in horse positioning.No need of ifs,couldas,shouldas. That Englishman horse trained by Upstate s Devoux had to be the best one sided win of the day by running away by itself,without any pressure and almost breaking a distance record.Great day,lots of good races,big pool $$,,,and still wished that I was there.No lie !