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CAL-EXPO ANALYSIS – MAR 27

By Michael Carter, Cal-Expo Handicapper

Best Bet – (6) ROYAL MISTRESS – Race 5

Spot Play – (5) CENALTA EXPRESS – Race 2

.20-cent Pick-5 (R1) – 1,2,4,8/3,5/ALL/4,5,6/6 – $28.80

.20-cent Pick-4 (R7) $30,000 Guaranteed Pool – 2,6/3,10/5/2,3,4 – $2.40

Free PPs Late Pick 4: https://bit.ly/2WScIps

Race 1 – (8) BECKYS DREAMBOAT takes a double class drop tonight, but gets a driver change to Plano as Svendsen chose off to (1) Hi Ho’s Little Rev.  When facing easier four starts back, he showed a lot of promise.  (1) HI HO’S LITTLE REV draws the rail tonight after struggling with the post draw of late.  He is a pretty big closer, who will be coming late.  Big opportunity for him to shine with the class relief.  (2) WET SHARK is another in the field who gets a driver change.  Throw his last start out from post ten where he never really got going. 

Race 2 – There are some big chances for value in this race, including with my spot play (5) CENALTA EXPRESS who drops in class after being off since July of last year.  His qualifying line jumps off the page at me a little bit and if he is anywhere near as good today as he was last year, watch out.  (3) BUDGIE SMUGGLER got the perfect trip and got along well with Nick Roland last out.  He steps up slightly in class facing tougher but should be able to handle it.  (1) VILLA FOR RENT gets post help, a driver change back to Svendsen and can close well from off the pace.  What interests me somewhat is that he can also flash early speed,  I could see him getting into a good spot early.  

Race 3 – This is one of the more competitive races of the night, which has the possibility of creating a good amount of value.  (4) BEST DREAM SEEKER has won three of his last five starts and is versatile with a lot of ability for being 14-years-old.  Don’t count this gelding out.  (6) AL’S BRIEFS gets a little bit of post help this week, he posses speed that should allow him to get into a good spot early, if he makes the lead, you may not catch him.  (1) LUKES COWBOY seems to be coming into form at the right time, putting together a string of good efforts. 

Race 4 – (6) FLY AWAY is a powerful closer who has the heart of a champion.  He draws outside of the shortened field, but that shouldn’t affect him.  (5) WHO DAT LOVE likes to be on or near the lead, he raced much better than the line shows last out getting passed through the stretch but making up ground.  Gets some key class relief as well.  (4) ETHAN HANOVER just did not fire through the stretch last week losing ground throughout the stretch.  Throw that start out, look for him to improve off of that effort.

Race 5 – (6) ROYAL MISTRESS is my best bet of the night as she gets Kennedy back in the bike who she has gotten along with.  This is an interesting field with a good amount of speed, I could see the pace falling apart allowing her to close into it.  (1) LOOKSLIKEWEMADEIT gets Svendsen in the bike following a game, dominant victory against the lower-level condition last out.  This is a pretty big jump in class for her, but her speed could carry her underneath.  (5) GETTER QUEEN FLUSH has a big closing kick, driver change back to Kennedy who gets along with her could make her dangerous from this spot.  

Race 6 – (3) NIGHTGIRL has won four of her last six starts from both the lead and off the pace.  I could see her being driven aggressively early, and use her stamina to fight off challengers at the end of the mile.  (7) BROOKLYN MOONSHINE has put together a string of good efforts as of late.  When she is near the front, she doesn’t miss the ticket.  (6) CASEY N GINEGAN is a strong closer who has a big chance of making the ticket at decent odds.  

Race 7 – (2) GIGGLE MONSTER takes a slight drop in class facing the $8,000 claimers.  Roland is back in the bike, this week, if you can get 4/1 on him that would be a big overlay.  (6) ROYALE BIG GUY is a question mark for me, he faces much easier than he faced at Dayton, but the time off is a slight concern for me.  I’m going to let him beat me tonight if good enough.  (4) BUNKERHILL BILL made a break two starts back and just got nailed on the wire.  He is a gutsy gelding that is worth a look underneath.   

Race 8 –  (10) DONTCLOSEYOUREYES has won three of her last five starts all from the outside.  Tonight she gets the outside again in a bigger field than she has faced in her last two starts.  She has a lot of speed but has been known to make a big middle move before.

A contender.  (3) GREEKONA is a consistent hard-knocking claimer who shows a lot of promise.  She is a mare who does better when she gets the trip.  (9) DANCER’S FANCY needed the tightener that she got on March 21 after being off since January.  She could bounce back off of that trip.  

Race 9 – (5) FOX VALLEY HOSS takes a step back in class following a big trip from post five last out.

I like his chances tonight from here.  (7) CONTEMPORARY LEGEND will most likely be the speed of the race, trying to play catch me if you can.  He has heart and can fight some down the lane.  (3) HE GRINS AGAIN gets class relief and post help, he could present some value underneath. 

Race 10 – (3) WESTERN DEVIL was Roland’s choice tonight over the two other horses, one of those a long shot, one of them a solid contender in the field.  That start last out was impressive, he was all over the racetrack and still managed to only miss by a length.  The better post should allow him to get into a better spot.  (2) BET TOGETHER has speed, gets a little class relief, and a big driver change to Svendsen after a strong trip last out.  He is worth a look underneath.  (4) BETTOR IN THE BANK is another class dropper, who seems to be putting things together as of late.  I’m interested to see how he fares against this group.   

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