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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

SEEKING VALUE AT BELMONT

Damn, coming off a rough weekend it would have been nice if Thursday’s Belmont feature offered some clear signals as to which way to go. It didn’t, so the only alternative is to seek a value with a chance.

This resembles Belgrano (10-1). Forget the early line, not that it’s bad; he rates to be a price. But it’s Johnny sticking with a horse that was buffeted a bit in midstretch last time but showed grit and a turn of foot.

So we’re going against the Chad Brown favorite but the one that worries us most is Tide of the Sea (4-1) who had dynamics conspire against him for 11 furlongs in a small field in Saratoga.

He wasn’t necessarily wide throughout but neither did he see the fence at any point. His recent Saratoga turf breeze was meant to sharpen him a bit and the slight cutback should get more out of his kick; Rosario will help, too.

We’re going on record with Belgrano–5-1 or more would be only fair and we will box an exacta with ‘Tide.”

YESTERDAY: Irish Danzing chased and raced Time Limit into defeat, but couldn’t hold Fierce Lady–who couldn’t hold off Naked Avenger’s last run; a disappointing third.

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⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

3 Responses

  1. Well, I seem to be the only reader at HRI that cares to render an opinion on FRA (which at times appears under ‘Pricci’, not FRA). So be it, but this site is not obviously drawing the serious bettor. Having contributed to HRI for over a decade I want HRI to succeed and I believe I had a lot to do with getting this site ‘off the ground’ way back in the early years, though being once ‘tossed’ by Mr. Pricci, who I have written many times has a problem with negative comments.

    So, I will comment on the 7th race today at Belmont, having already scooped Gulfstream’s race card. A case can be made for at least five entrants. As Mr. Jicha would comment ‘ it’s a great betting race’ as there is not a heavy favorite, so even Chad’s blue blood will pay a fair price. Belgrano will not go off at the M/L of 10/1 nor will the plodder be less than 5/1. After going up and down in the past performances, and between a couple Foster’s, I have landed on Hoboe – if you like Donk, honk! Should like the distance and been spaced perfectly between races. The plodder belongs in the race and Franco always gets the horse into the hunt down the stretch.

  2. Several observations on your take, WMC. I have a question. If we’re behind honest here, and we certainly strive to, Did you ever notice that our “win” horses are underlays 8 or 9 out of every 10 chosen? What rocks the board more, these mysterious big bettors you say don’t come here, or a bunch of minnows. In terms of odds, does that even matter? Anyway, if you haven’t noticed, keep an eye on that.

    (And I am aware that scratches deflate win odds to the point where horses are unacceptable; I stay away and dip into the exotic pools. Thing about exotics is second is sometimes more lucrative than a win).

    Comments, BTW, does not reflect readership. Since 2.0 became reality, we have statistics showing that the number of unique visitors climbed by approximately 50% the first month. Admittedly, we probably got a bump because of Saratoga but I am excited about the results.

    [If you doubt it’s true, I could have managing editor Mark Berner email you the stats]. And to you and the rest of the Faithful, and Unfaithful, we’re just getting started…

    Yes, we appreciate your contributions to HRI. But you might give some thought that perhaps you might have chased as many readers away as you have attracted? I know that’s the case with me when I go off the rails. It happens. But I make it a practice to ignore what I can’t control. I just keep my head down and try to continue marching forward. Good luck today…

  3. Excellent pick today, WMC. Hopefully Alice spotted you that double-sawbuck.

    To paraphrase Bukowski, “Fosters for all my friends!”

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