The third race In Oldsmar to begin the Tampa racing week present an opportunity for value which can be optimized as an Early Pick 5 single. Think first-time-starter with conditioning races to get this player ready for his lifetime best effort.
It’s not so much that Bali Beach (7-2) had a tough trip in his recent return from a freshening, or that trainer Tim Hamm is profitable with his turf debut types, or or hos profitable 23% effective relationship with grass ace Pablo Gonzalez. (See Tampa Bay Downs, JAN 16, Race 4 to verify the no-chance trip).
It’s because the gelded three-year-old never has run this cheaply and while he lacks grass pedigree on paper, his fastest races have come over the Presque Isle synth, a surface that produces winners whatever the surface switch.
The bottom side of his pedigree lends hope to the notion that today’s added trip works to his benefit but note, too, that subsequent to his tough-trip comebacker, a bullet best work of 23 going three furlongs will doubtlessly sharpen him for the task for this currently live trainer/jockey hookup.
We’re taking Bali Beach to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with in-form favorite Angel’s Magic (2-1) and price shot dropdown Bench Walk (10-1), a Big A ship-in for Ron Potts who does his best work when removing blinkers.