BEWARE OF SPA PREPSTERS IN BELMONT’S MANILA

With the Saratoga race meet at mere eight days away, it is very likely that for some entrants in Thursday’s featured eighth race at Belmont have their eyes on a bigger prize. $100K is folding money for some of these outfits.

In that context, the first thought should be which horses need to prove they belong with more up-class seeking established rivals and/or which horses need to improve their form in the overall.

Now anytime Chad Brown has entered a grass horse, his entrant is certainly one of the major contenders to beat, and that’s the case with Fog of War (9-2), who broke maiden on Saratoga debut before shipping to Woodbine.

Going from 5-1/2 furlongs to one mile, he shipped north and won the Canadian-G1 Summer Stakes–beating a horse called War of Will in the process.

He got a trouble line in recent seasonal debut but it was of his own making as he lugged in after entering the stretch. Still, he owns forward pattern, Brown 29% in LAY-2 and profitable 25% adding blinkers, the case here. He looms a most probable winner.

But we’re looking to make some fireworks of our own. Ian Glass (20-1) exits the same race and I can’t tell if he was checked twice or three times? I do know he got his face ripped off from between horses on the backside and had no chance during stretch run, finishing last.

He won impressively at the trip in season’s debut after being sent to the lead, albeit a Laurel two-turner, followed by the Belmont debacle. Trainer Tom Morley likes to use Johnny on live horses. This gelding has speed and an inside post; I’ll take my chance but really want double-digit odds, 8-1 absolute minimum.

Going to bet Ian Glass to win, save with Fog of War, box the exacta, and using Current (8-1), who needs to get back on track, and Casa Creed (5-1), getting some class relief, exotically.

YESTERDAY: Therapist chasing the pace between horses throughout but gave up a little too willingly in deep stretch and finished third. Exacta horse Lucullan won it, excellent work by Team McLaughlin.

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3 Responses

  1. Common knowledge, which I hate more than life itself, is that “also rans” in the Triple Crown races are useless thereafter. This is not my belief. 7-Win Win Win can certainly be forgiven his run in the “Debacle Derby,” and was wide throughout in the Preakness finishing 5 lengths back. I insist that all who read this agree that this will be a less intimidating field, and that he is well rested, and probably very fit, showing no handily works. Won’t be at all surprise if 7-Win Win Win does not “Lose Lose Lose” today.

    Ted of the Turf

    1. Cannot disagree with anything you said, Ted of Turf. However, I have a rule, in a betting game that demands audibles. Having said that, I generally avoid faster, classier horses making turf debut vs. rivals that on proven over the surface. While his company lines are peerless, there are some talented grass horses in this event–with upside to match the talent. Looking forward to it as we’re almost certain to see all of them back in the entries somewhere at the Spa.

  2. Tip of the cap, Teddy, great pick and at 4-1, a very nice return. Chad ran well, as expected, What was unexpected however, was Johnny shooting ducks through crazy fractions. Didn’t get that. Ian was 32-1, I will be following…

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