MARSHALL over James Madison by 8
This game has all the requirements necessary for a real Jim-dandy matchup. The 6-0 Dukes take to the highway with a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven on the road and they’re one of only eleven undefeated FBS teams remaining – which puts a large target on their back. The 4-2 Herd need this game to stay on track in the Sun Belt East where they trail division leaders Georgia State and Old Dominion by a half-game (Jimmy Mad is ineligible in the Sun Belt this season after coming up from the FCS ranks a year ago). Marshall’s 18-11-2 ATS overall home dog log is impressive, as is its 2-0 ATS mark as a dog against unbeaten opponents when coming off two losses-exact (one coming over Kansas State in a 27-20 upset as a 20-point puppy). Remember, JMU hit the wall after a 5-0 start last season when they proceeded to drop their next three games before rallying back with three straight wins to close out the campaign. We can see more of the same in the offi ng this season as they edged Georgia Southern by only 18 total yards in last week’s 28-point home win, thanks largely to a 3-0 turnover edge against the Eagles. Sure, the Stumbling Herd has lost two in a row, but they’re a thundering 18-4 SU at home when coming off consecutive losses, including 10-0 the last ten. To seal the deal, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: Marshall is 8-2-2 ATS as a home dog against undefeated foes, including 5-0-2 ATS in games in which the Thundering Herd is not undefeated.
AUBURN over Ole Miss by 3
With the Tigers losing three straight games and finding themselves at a crossroads with a 3-3 record on the season, it’s time to start picking up bowl-appealing victories, and it starts here. HC Hugh Freeze is 36- 19 ATS at home, including 11-3 ATS when taking points, and the Tigers have won three straight times in this series at Jordan-Hare. In the last ten meetings between these two schools, Aubbie is 7-1-2 versus the spread. They are also 10-4 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 8 points. Conversely, Ole Miss is a miserable 3-20 ATS as road favorites of less than 8 points and owns a scary 2-8 spread record with rest. Coming off consecutive wins and cruising along at 5-1, Johnny Reb looks to add another notch to his belt in this home tilt, but with 13-16 SU and 8-19-2 ATS marks as conference road chalk this century, you know where to turn to here. Remember, Freeze coached at Ole Miss for 5 years before resigning after officials discovered that he had used a university cellphone to call escort services at least a dozen times over 33 months. Ya think he wants to win this game?
Minnesota over IOWA by 3
If Iowa football were a “The Simpsons” episode, Bart would be writing “I will not talk about Iowa’s offense” on the blackboard. We’re going to do our best not to bring it up. Somehow, someway, Iowa is 6-1 despite being outgained in all but one game, with a -84 net yards defi cit. The Hawkeyes are winning with a superb defense that gives up less than 15 points per game and an average of 247.4 ypg. They beat Wisconsin, despite a stretch of having more possessions (six) than yards (four). Yeah, we wrote about their offense. Iowa had to place a women’s basketball exhibition game at Kinnick Stadium to reassure fans someone can score in the stadium. The Iowa O is the equivalent of a decomposing body in the trunk of a car that’s been rotting for two months. It’s going to be an awkward Christmas around the Ferentz home when Dad must tell his offensive coordinator son that thanks to the terms of his contract, you’re fi red. Minnesota barely lost to Iowa last year in Minneapolis, even though they outgained the Hawkeyes by more than 1006yards, a harbinger of Iowa football. Minnesota is stuck in the middle, like Gerry Rafferty and Stealers Wheel. The Golden Gophers are a game and a half out of last, and a game and a half away from Iowa in fi rst, making this game a marker for their season. A win, and the Gophers get closer to the West Division top spot, a loss means Minnesota can start planning to make the “Sorry You Didn’t Win Enough Games in the Regular Season to get a Prestigious Bowl” Bowl. The last word goes to Minnesota…Coach P.J. Fleck is 6-0 ATS away in his career versus an opponent .800 or greater coming off a win of seven points or more. We checked…the O/U for this game and it did not open at 10.5. If it had…
NFL
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo by 1
We’ll be the first to admit, but this requires large stones. That is, if you’re willing to measure your testosterone levels. After scoring its first touchdown in 12 quarters last week, the Patriots are on a roll… downhill, that is. But head coach Bill Belichick has never been much of a downhill skier, and with that, we look for a change of direction today. His troops return home to Foxborough, where they are 0-3 SUATS this season, with the last loss a 34-0 goose egg. Needless to say, it was the worst home loss in The Hoodie’s career. Do you want more ugliness? Then New England has it, as no team has fewer takeaways (3) this season. And no team has a higher percentage of drives (81.7%) that end without points. Meanwhile, after tallying more than 36 points in Games Two through Four, the Bills plateaued with 20-and-14- point scoring efforts the past two weeks. Was it a regression to the mean, or is the Bills offense spiraling downward? We’ll see today. What we know for sure is Buffalo’s rush defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.4 YPR (only Denver is worse at 5.6). That’s a full 2.0 YR worse than the 3.4 yards per carry that the Pats allow. Aside from Buffy having a difficult time in Game Sevens, 1-7-1 ATS the last eight years, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the seventh games of the season, including 6-2 outright. It’s time to pop some Nugenix Thermo-X capsules… and take the points while you’re at it.
LA Chargers over KANSAS CITY by 6
Talk about being snake-bit. Six Chargers’ losses have been by three or fewer points since last season. Only the Broncos with more (7). But then again, looking back, the Chiefs have shown a propensity like no other to involve themselves in one-score games under Andy Reid. On his watch, Kansas City has been involved in a total of 111 such games in his 187-game career with the Chiefs. That equates to 59.4% of the time. Reid’s troops have gone 27-71-2 ATS overall in those contests, or a staggering 27.5 % ATS, including 8-43 ATS at home. We’re guessing the big cheeseburger enjoys intense games. And here’s a stat to chew on: QB Patrick Mahomes has now started 100 NFL games and won 80 of them. Unfortunately, he is just 28-25 ATS at home with the Chiefs. When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after fi ring Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Featherheads 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game, we seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage.
LA Chargers over KANSAS CITY by 6
Talk about being snake-bit. Six Chargers’ losses have been by three or fewer points since last season. Only the Broncos with more (7). But then again, looking back, the Chiefs have shown a propensity like no other to involve themselves in one-score games under Andy Reid. On his watch, Kansas City has been involved in a total of 111 such games in his 187-game career with the Chiefs. That equates to 59.4% of the time. Reid’s troops have gone 27-71-2 ATS overall in those contests, or a staggering 27.5 % ATS, including 8-43 ATS at home. We’re guessing the big cheeseburger enjoys intense games. And here’s a stat to chew on: QB Patrick Mahomes has now started 100 NFL games and won 80 of them. Unfortunately, he is just 28-25 ATS at home with the Chiefs. When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after firing Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Featherheads 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game, we seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage.
