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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


By Marc Lawrence, — It’s put up or shut up time in both the Keystone and Volunteer states this weekend:


PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 11

You know things are going bad in Pittsburgh for Mike Tomlin, with his 16-year career mark of never having suffered a losing season on the line, and he needs to resort to Mason Rudolph, who will be making his eleventh start as an NFL quarterback. However, he’s gone 5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS, including a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS slate against the Bengals. It’s Tomlin’s 22-9 SU and 17-12-1 ATS ledger in games when the Steelers enter dead-level .500 that serves as the starting point today, though. We realize the Steelers’ OL has been offensive this season and is a large contributing reason that starting QB Kenny Pickett resides on the IR. We’re also aware of the fact that the Black and Gold are averaging 13 points over their last five games as they enter today’s game with less than a 5% chance of making this year’s playoffs, per CBS Sports. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18, so one of those teams will suffer a seventh loss. Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, though, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And finally, if Marc’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 isn’t enough, we can always lean on THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog.

TENNESSEE over Seattle by 3

 Each team enters today’s contest with disparate results – at least from a mental aspect. The Titans blew a late lead and lost at home in overtime to Houston, while the Seahawks rallied from the clouds to pull out a last-second shocker over the Eagles on Monday night. As such, Seattle takes the field as the No. 8 seed in the current NFC Playoff Picture, while the Titans are looking forward to the 2024 campaign. With it, however, the pressure mounts on a Seahawks’ squad that has now been outgained in each of their last four games as they bring along a phony sense of accomplishment. Given Seattle’s 0-5 outright record in road games this season since its Bye Week, and Tennessee’s 6-1 ATS mark in this series, look for the Titans to improve on its 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home off a loss under Mike Vrabel, including 4-0 SUATS this season. And look for the Seabags to a taste of touch of reality today, especially with Ryan Tannehill rumored to be behind center for the Titans today.

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2 Responses

  1. Hey Doc, yes, Marc had quite the weekend. His private clients cashed big on the Ravens over the 49ers on Monday night. We are friends and he allows us access to his Newsletter best bets and we choose only those getting points. I always tell readers who ask about Marc:
    1) In a field full of scoundrels, he is an honest man–can’t be in business three decades if you aren.t.
    2) I have been to his office and have seen his database. In any sports or racing related venture, I’ve never seen anything as comprehensive as his “well oiled machine.”
    I ply along with Marc, choosing the angles that fit into my own approach. I am a small sports bettor, football and college hoops. It’s a pleasant distraction from sloppy tracks and 5-horse fields… LOL

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