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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

VALUE PLAYS AND BETTING GRIDS FROM AROUND U.S., PLUS G3s FROM SOFLA AND SOCAL

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., FEBRUARY 19, 2021  —  As stated last weekend, we will be providing our take on “The Big Race” on Sunday, but we will not support any commercial venture from that part of the Middle East.

Fortunately, even without a marquee Kentucky Derby prep on the Saturday docket, there is plenty of entertaining betting action for us in Simuland this weekend.  Analyses have been updated to include four additional tracks:

AQUEDUCT RACETRACK

Editorial: Terrific matchup of state-bred three-year-old fillies; lots of potential here, a skull-busting handicapping puzzle. We tried tot to overanalyze and any superfecta price shot additions will be game-time decisions based on price. Lots of potential on tap here

MADDIE MAY STAKES         Race 8

WORTHY FAVORITE:  Brattle House (3-1)

VALUE PLAY:  Make Mischief (5-1) at 4-1 or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta Box 1.3.8     Exacta Box 3-7-8

***

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

MAIDEN ALLOWANCES      Race 2 

WORTHY FAVORITE:  Ravir (6-1)

VALUE PLAY:  I’m a Hugger (10-1) at 8-1 or greater

EXOTICA:  Exacta Box  1.6.10    Exacta Box  3-6-10  Trifecta Key 10 with 3.5.6    Trifecta Wheel 3.5.6 // 10 // 3.5.6

***

FAIR GROUNDS

MAIDEN ALLOWANCES        Race 10

WORTHY FAVORITE:  No Pedigree (8-5)

VALUE PLAY:   Ranch Badge (5-1) to win at early line odds or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta Box 4.9   Exacta Wheel  9 // 4.5.6.8.10  Superfecta Key: 9 // 4.5.6.8.10

***

GULFSTREAM PARK

MAIDEN ALLOWANCES       Race 8

WORTHY FAVORITE:   Ghazaaly (8-5)

VALUE PLAY:   Midlaner (3-1) to win at early line odds or greater

EXOTICA:  Exacta Box 1.8   Trifecta Wheel 1.8 // 1.5.6.8 // 1.5.6.8  Trifecta Key 1 // 5.6.8

GRADE 3 ROYAL DELTA       Race 11

WORTHY FAVORITE:  Mrs. Danvers (2-1)

VALUE PLAY:  Eres Tu (3-1) to win at 5-2 or greater

EXOTICA:  Exacta Box 3.7  Exacta Wheel 3.7. //3.4.7 // 3.4.7  Trifecta Box 3.4.7

***

SANTA ANITA

GRADE 2 BUENA VISTA       Race 7

WORTHY FAVORITE:  Charmaine’s Mia  (3-1)

VALUE PLAY:  Going to Vegas (6-1) to win at 4-1 or greater

EXOTICA:  Exacta Box 2.7.8   Exacta Box 3.7.8    

(Per usual, all wagers are recommended at minimum levels, except WIN wagers, set at $2)

[JP1] 


 [JP1]

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⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

9 Responses

  1. I spent the day looking at the Big A where small fields, cold weather and slow horses makes for a NOT very exciting betting card. I’ve already handicapped them so let me share.

    Race 1-3 with the 1,4

    Race 2- 5 with the 2,4

    Race 3- Box the 4,5,7 and if you want to spread use the 3,6 in your super’s

    Race 4-The 1 to win (singles or enjoy the race)

    Race 5- Key the 2 first and. second with the 3,5,6,7

    Race 6-8 and the 2 back and forth with the 1,5 to complete your gimmicks.

    Race 7- 3/8/5 box with a win bet on the 3 at 3-1 or more

    Race 8- Let’s end our day with the 7 (Secret Love) with the 1,2,3 to get the exotic cash.

    Race 9- Get a head start and head home early. No graded stakes and all sprints is a little anti-climatic but it is what it is.

    Good luck, Enjoy the day and as always “Let’s go get the bad guys.”

    Vin O’

    1. Thanks for sharing Vin O, may your horses have a safe and speedy journey. Also think if you get something close to the 6-1 early quote on Secret Love in the feature, you should probably take a swing…

  2. The above comment mentions ‘slow horses’; which has led me to ask a) how does a ‘capper know when a horse is going fast unless informed by a man made electronic timer? b) since all race contestants are required to meet the requirements to enter the race (the conditions, Alice, at the top of the past performances); thus the conditions make all plodders pretty much of equal status, so just about, if not all, of the platers in the race will be of equal ability which means that slow/fast is a moot point.

    Want to challenge your brain? Try reading the conditions of a race then determine the weight the plater should carry. Is your figure the same as the weight actually assigned?

    Pleased to see a horseplayer ‘capping claiming races. Bet he does better financially today than when chasing stake races.

    1. Good point. Tough game and as always you need some luck. Slow horses was in context to the stakes races that usually take place on weekends. I.e. Stakes vs. claimers.

  3. Just watched the big Dubai race, but did not place a wager. The “bowed” neck on the 11 pre-race was “screaming” place a wager on me. He pranced along the track warm up looking like a Champ ready for any challengers. Too bad the race was in Dubai, as I had already committed to not take part in the “Blood Money Fairgrounds” of Dubai. He was 33-1 when I noticed him stepping onto the track, and I am thinking he drifted up to 48-1? Passing on a $100 horse? Duh! Oh well, I am still glad I didn’t take part in it. Stubborn Irish is all. Even if a teaser Bet Back 2nd or 3rd at Xpress or TVG I was not playing the race.

    Really like two today and you have them both on top Stage Door Johnny. Betting on “Brattle House” and “Mrs. Danvers”.

    Safe journey to all, Riders Up! Let’s go get them bad guys Vinnie.

    (I had a wager on Nut Cracker over Curmudgeon later in the day, but can’t recall the track Vinnie.)

    1st: 5
    Bets (1) Amount: $2Total: $2
    Ticket #: 27889302269983
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 10:40 am
    WIN – Aqueduct – R8 – $2
    1st: 8
    Bets (1) Amount: $2Total: $2
    Ticket #: 88338564883471
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:22 am
    EX – Aqueduct – R8 – $6
    Exacta Box
    : 1, 3, 8
    Bets (6) Amount: $1Total: $6
    Ticket #: 43847218108341
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:23 am
    EX – Aqueduct – R8 – $6
    Exacta Box
    : 3, 7, 8
    Bets (6) Amount: $1Total: $6
    Ticket #: 28889845230563
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:24 am
    EX – Fair Grounds – R10 – $2
    Exacta Box
    : 4, 9
    Bets (2) Amount: $1Total: $2
    Ticket #: 12876642289610
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:25 am
    SPR – Fair Grounds – R10 – $6
    1st: 9
    2nd: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
    3rd: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
    4th: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
    Bets (60) Amount: $0.10Total: $6
    Ticket #: 08006185976997
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:26 am
    EX – Gulfstream – R8 – $2
    Exacta Box
    : 1, 8
    Bets (2) Amount: $1Total: $2
    Ticket #: 75663479429905
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:27 am
    TRI – Gulfstream – R8 – $3
    1st: 1
    2nd: 5, 6, 8
    3rd: 5, 6, 8
    Bets (6) Amount: $0.50Total: $3
    Ticket #: 71023486732684
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:33 am
    WIN – Gulfstream – R11 – $2
    1st: 7
    Bets (1) Amount: $2Total: $2
    Ticket #: 54088218827282
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:35 am
    EX – Gulfstream – R11 – $2
    Exacta Box
    : 3, 7
    Bets (2) Amount: $1Total: $2
    Ticket #: 30307054822158
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:35 am
    TRI – Gulfstream – R11 – $3
    Trifecta Box
    : 7, 3, 4
    Bets (6) Amount: $0.50Total: $3
    Ticket #: 87184691385723
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:37 am
    TRI – Gulfstream – R11 – $2
    1st: 3, 7
    2nd: 3, 4, 7
    3rd: 3, 4, 7
    Bets (4) Amount: $0.50Total: $2
    Ticket #: 35371503963396
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:37 am
    TRI – Santa Anita – R7 – $3
    Trifecta Box
    : 2, 7, 8
    Bets (6) Amount: $0.50Total: $3
    Ticket #: 43448027402054
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:39 am
    TRI – Santa Anita – R7 – $3
    Trifecta Box
    : 3, 7, 8
    Bets (6) Amount: $0.50Total: $3
    Ticket #: 82219236146838
    Placed At: 02-20-2021 11:39 am

    1. Thank you for being so kind. It’s a humbling game. I’ve been nostrilized more times then I can count. You absolutely need racing luck. Especially if your betting value horses or long shots. Once again thanks for the vote of confidence and as always, let’s go get those bad guys. Vin.

  4. Sunday morning recap-nothing exceptional to report but a few noteworthy performances we need to tuck away for future wagering purposes.

    Let’s start in NY with the Maddie May Stakes-very gutsy performance by Make Mischief, who clearly got to the lead from an inside move. On what was clearly not the best footing so this makes her effort all that more impressive. I have a strong feeling this one will relish the extra distances of the stakes races later on this season.

    Now let’s take a look at Gulfstream’s Royal Delta Stakes, please raise your hand if you didn’t think Eres Tu was the winner turning for home. I see you, we all did.
    Where did Queen Nekia come up with that effort? Not only did she win under wraps but she was pulling away at the end in a very comfortable margin. Six year old mares normally don’t explode like she did. As the HOF coach Bill Parcells used to say, “you are who you are.” Yesterday, Queen Nekia did a Midnight Bisou impersonation that can only leave you questioning the performance.
    I give all trainers the benefit of the doubt when it comes to care and health of their equine athletes. I now have to say, I have my eye on you Mr. Saffie.

    Finally we go West young man to beautiful Santa Anita and the Buena Vista Stakes. Watch Red Lark’s effort, it’s a bang up third. She’s primed next time out off this effort. I’m adding this one to my stable list you should too.

  5. Thanks Tony, will take a look at Buena Vista, it was too long a day starting in the desert, so will check it.

    Saffie’s Joseph’s horses have been running too good, say, for the last two months.

    Eres Tu ran too good to lose, that was a tough one.

    Was happy Make Mischief won as was a value play. She was 4-1 with about three minutes left. I looked up, she was 5-2. I looked up and she was 8-5, so I’m pissed either way since I had no right betting her as such an underlay. Racing will continue to lose fans like us. This is BS!

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