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CAL EXPO ANALYSIS – MAR 28

By Michael Carter, Cal-Expo Handicapper, for U.S. Trotting Association

Best Bet – (4) MARYS PRETTY GIRL – Race 4

Spot Play – (1) CUT A RUG – Race 3

.20-cent Pick-5 (R1) – 6,8/2,3,6/1,4/4/3,5,6 – $7.20

.20-cent Pick-4 (R7) $30,000 Guaranteed Pool – 1,3,5/5,6,7/2,5/1,2,5 – $10.80

Free Late Pick-4 PPs https://bit.ly/2vPzoM2

Race 1 – (6) CRUISIN FOR YOU probably needed the tightener last out after being off for almost a month.  He gets a big driver change facing easier to Lemoyne Svendsen.  (8) IMMA TANK is another that gets some class relief, who has been struggling some as of late.  There isn’t a lot of speed to his inside, I could see him being aggressively driven early.  (4) PEDIGREE BLUE CHIP would have been my top choice, but the two injured scratches in a little over a month is a slight concern.  I will let him beat me if he is fit enough. 

Race 2 – (6) GLITTER N GINGER is a consistent filly who has had some success against this group.  Depending on the pace of the race, she could get into a good striking spot and fire down the lane.  (3) ONE GORGEOUS GAL went to the lead and tired in three straight races.  She is worth a look underneath, while you won’t get value, her consistency is hard to ignore.  (2) RAIDER ROSE improved with Lasix last out, tonight she gets the same draw and adds Lasix for the second time.  She may be able to show up underneath at a price.  

Race 3 – (1) CUT A RUG looked game in victory last out, finishing in a time that could beat this group.

I’m not concerned about the jump up in class, he has the talent to win here.  (4) THEREALGOODS is one of the more consistent geldings in the field.  He has speed and Nick Roland seems to get the most out of him.  (5) PADDY MURPHY has speed and should be forwardly placed, throw out the start two back, where he did not like the off going.

Race 4 – (4) MARYS PRETTY GIRL has won two of her last three starts and has the ability to come from anywhere.  She could be tough to beat against this group.  (5) LAKOTA LAW was Boyd’s choice this week, she has struggled some against slightly tougher, facing an easier group she has the ability to make the ticket.  (2) JUNE MORNING raced well of an injury in her last start.  Key driver change to Luke Plano this week, that could make the difference for her. 

Race 5 – (3) EXPLAINNOTCOMPLAIN was outside for over a half-mile last week, throw that start out.  He gets class relief and a big driver change to Roland.  He is versatile and rate from just about anywhere.  (5) LAISSEZMOIPICOLER picks up Luke Plano for the first time off a tough effort against this class where he tired badly coming down the stretch.  Going to give him an opportunity to improve tonight.

(6) RAMSAY got a tough trip early last week, while he made up a little bit of ground through the race, he tired down the stretch.  He could be better in his third race off the layoff.   

Race 6 – (2) BETTOR’S PROMISE could drop and pop dropping out of the Open, where he just didn’t have it at any point throughout the race.  He is a better gelding than that line shows, the class relief makes the difference. (6) P H HIPPIE needs his last race thrown out, he had a driver change and did not handle it well.  Magee is back in the bike and there is value to be had here.  (1) MYSTIC RULER has speed and a big ability to leave from the inside. 

Race 7 – (5) MYSTERY DRAGON gets Nick Roland back in the bike, a drop in class and should bounce back off two tough efforts.  He performs well for him and could be back on her game.  (3) DEPENDLEBURY A puts Plano back in the bike following a tough trip against the tougher conditioned company.  The class relief makes him a solid contender.  (1) SIN MACHQUEEN steps up to face tougher following two strong efforts.  He seems to be getting better at the right time.   

Race 8 –  (7) CALIFORNIA ROCK has won three of his last five starts, he adds Lasix for the second time and should continue to improve.  (5) LICKCREEK SPEEDWAY isn’t the quickest off the gait but is a mare who has a lot of heart down the stretch.  Look for her to be coming late.  (6) FLASH ME BABY is another that has won three of her last five starts.  She gets a driver change to Lackey and a drop in class tonight. 

Race 9 – (5) VIRGIN EYES adds Luke Plano to the bike for the first time.  She just hasn’t been able to put things together as of late, class relief could make the difference.  (2) RELENTLESS DANCE enters off a game victory against the lower level conditioned group. She has a little bit of speed, which should allow her to get into a good spot early.  (6) CAPITOL HILL dropped to this group last out and popped, look for her to be tough again. 

Race 10 – (5) SHOCK N AWE drops in class facing a shortened field again this week.  She also gets another driver change, this is her chance to put it all together.  (1) GORDY AGAIN has had a lot to overcome as of late between the miscues and the post draw. Post relief could make the difference with Svendsen in the bike for the second time.  (2) OUTLAWINTRIGUEDBYU is a mare who likes to come from off the pace. I would not leave this mare off the ticket. 

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