We managed to avoid two short-priced Chad Brown traps at Keeneland last two days, alas to no avail. But today he seems to have the G3 Valley View surrounded on three sides. We’ll take the one on the inside.
However, none of this can be taken for granted. On balance, the Keeneland Fall cards have been among the most challenging I’ve seen and have a lack of bullets to prove it. And I won’t get even here.
Blowout (5-2) is the early line favorite but we strongly doubt the price would be lower at post time; it could even nudge a tad higher. But we’re just taking the high percentage play.
The folly has speed, an inside draw, good spacing, excellent, consistent performance figures, good spacing and Johnny Velazquez to work out the trip.
We look for him to leave, take the initiative if easily gained, or take a tuck behind other speed–several of those with outside draws who probably have to leave the gate for tenable position.
Taking Blowout to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing in the multiples with Wildlife (15-1), Turf War (12-1) and Hard Legacy (6-1).
YESTERDAY: As happens almost all the time, the trip made the difference; Maxon managed to have a ground saving trip from an outside post and got first run on Nakamura, a solid 4-1 and an excellent runnerup despite losing ground throughout 12 furlongs. No pilot error here, just a tough trip in a bulky field.