SIMULCAST SATURDAY: BIGGEST BET CHALLENGE BY FAR IS $500,000-GUARANTEE ALL-STAKES PICK 5

And we fully expect the pool in Louisville to reach seven figures. These are huge-field wide open affairs, each race featuring talented horses from high profile outfits. The point? Bring money.

Even if the sequence chalks out, the reward should be fair but to have a reasonable chance, the investment probably needs to be sizable. In the interests of the rank and file, we’ll drill down to keep the investment manageable.

The weather call is a chance of thunderstorms early in the day. With any luck, Churchill’s rapidly drying surface will have the track fast, albeit wet, for the first race of the sequence. Scheduled post is 4:08 pm, EST.

Below are horses that have captured our eye, a skinny analysis when the spirit moves, with grades for each contender:

RACE 7: SHAWNEE STAKES

(A) Dunbar Road (4-5), extremely classy G1-winning 3YO, in training since FEB, makes seasonal debut. She’s a Julie (2-1), same story, 4YO debut, training since FEB, G1 winner loves surface and trip.

(C) Vault (10-1), got good last fall, Cox taps Rosario, (6) 5-1-0 at trip

RACE 8: TEPIN STAKES

(A) Sharing (3-1) Breeders’ Cup JF Turf winner makes 3YO debut for Motion. Alms (3-1) must overcome draw, 4-for-4 lifetime including Grade 3, over three disparate courses.

(B) In Good Spirits (15-1) 2-for-2 on turf at 2; Little Al 24% 90-days+ layoffs. Abscond (8-1) tactical speed, well drawn with Tyler, needs patient handling.

RACE 9: BLAME STAKES

(A) Global Campaign (9-2) had good kick, grit in quick 7F prep return. Owendale (3-1) multiple graded winner at 1, strong placing in G1 Foster finale. Mr. Money (5-1) return a throwout; loves CD, big work, outside helps.

(B) Always Mining (20-1) sharp working trip specialist. Backyard Heaven (6-1) Maker looks serious about return with new runner. Extraordinary Jerry (12-1) earned extraordinary figure last out.

RACE 10: G3 MATT WINN STAKES

(A) Maxfield (5-2) was everyone’s Futures favorite after Arazi-like KEE Futurity. Pneumatic (4-1) 2-for-2 lifetime, Asmussen training him like a “good horse.”

(B) Ny Traffic (10-1) surprised at GP and keeps surprising despite class and distance increases. Major Fed (5-1) trip dynamics a LA Derby killer, good third in key race debut here last fall.

RACE 11: WAR CHANT STAKES

(A) Southbend (12-1) very troubled trip in last; well drawn, reunited Leparoux. Hieronymous (9-2) 4-for-5 lifetime, 2-for-2 at trip with Bridgmohan.

(B) Pixielate (6-1) has never run a bad one, training purposefully, first-time Rosario. Irish Commish (12-1) tactical speed, moves inside, Paco returns. Vanzzy (20-1) freaked in rapid Rushaway, turf debut. Field Pass (4-1) Maker/Ortiz team. Billy Batts (5-1) 2nd in BC Juvenile Turf.

(C) Bodecream (12-1), Street Ready (15-1), Fenwick Station (50-1), Smooth Like Strait (5-1), Bama Breeze (30-1)

As stated the play will be costly, try to find at least two, preferably three (A) races and spread with (B) horses thereafter. (C) horses better suited to vertical pools. All ‘A’ ticket: $24.

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19 Responses

  1. Keep an eye out for Bama Breeze! I know he’s 30-1, but he’s very talented. I don’t expect him to win given what he’s up against (long layoff, class hike, too short a distance), but I’ll be thrilled if he runs well. I’ve been waiting in him since he won his debut at CD.

    1. Bets, Pretty sure I had him a money player when entered week or two ago. I know he’s good but, wow, what a rough spot for debut. Money finish would not shock at all…

      1. John, I think he would have finished much closer – perhaps in the money – if he hadn’t been blocked for the last furlong or so. Fans bet him hard, down from 30-1 to 10-1, so they knew something. Rusty said the race was too short and he’d probably need a race – I think both proved to be true, but he never gave up, so he certainly got a lot out of this race. I look forward to seeing him in NY. He’s a gelding by Honor Code – unusual – but I kind of like that he’s a gelding because he can stay around for a long time with any luck.

        What a day at CD. Maxfield looked REALLY good – he’s the image of his broodmare sire, Bernardini, who had 3 SW as a broodmare sire today. Pretty remarkable. Pneumatic ran a terrific race also. I think this crop has serious potential to be one of the best.

  2. As you write a 50 cent ‘A’ ticket will cost $24. If all your selections were bet, the 50 cent pick five would cost $1,056. And, if the bet leaves out ‘C’ picks the cost, I think, would be $672.

    Handicapping? What’s that? Shoot for the mother lode instead.

    1. It’s not all selections were recommended. How about all the smart handicappers who visit do their own analysis and share?

      Does this record even have a ‘B’ side?

  3. It’s great to see horse players talking racing again.

    Don’t like Churchill, hate to support it in any way, but I can’t resist today’s card. Does this make me a hypocrite?

    It’s also great to see Keeneland jumping back into action with five days in July. I think I enjoy betting Keeneland more than any trace other than Saratoga. Interesting that they have scheduled their impromptu meet the week before the Spa. It’s like a ninth week of the Spa.

    However my sense of fair play is tweaked by the fact that Keeneland is just stepping on and pushing aside Ellis Park, just as Churchill is doing with the Labor Day weekend Derby.

  4. KEE may still be in negotiations with Ellis; either that or these are their days–and CD days in advance of Derby are Ellis dates, promising to make them whole. Probably same with KEE, and if Ellis gets paid and perhaps make a little extra at the bottom line, good for them.

    Well, I’m a hypocrite, too. I can’t resist these “big day” programs wherever they’re held, feeling that I owe it to the Faithful to weigh in

    In some of those races where I mention six or seven horses, that was with narrowing down potential contenders! Lots of potential prices for sure. The last race? Fuhgedaboudit!

  5. After not havingmade a bet it was a great way to shed some rust,and rust by playing the last 4,5 races between CD and Gulfstream.A boxed exacta over $200 and a mediocre triple which re unforced my belief in big tracks $pools and actuarial deductions watching ex and DD probables.Belmont,I’m coming soon! By

  6. ‘big track $pools’ , as do all pools, merely create the odds and do not improve the chance of any entrant winning a race. The odds inform the gambler, err bettor, if the bet is worthwhile. Smaller pools at lesser known racetracks payoff just as well, usually do not have odds-on favorites, no Baffert or Pletcher have entries, there are no rumors of geeks/computer algorithms or last minute whale bets, the entrants are bred from the same blood lines, will look exactly like the thoroughbreds at a top-tier racetrack, and will probably run a couple of seconds slower around the track.

    ——–

    How’s it go’in with those 50 cent pick five and pick six bets? Why aren’t they dime bets?

    1. Wmcorrow,your. Input on large versus small tracks pool$ won’t change my mind nor makes me hesitate on my definite ,firm conclusions. From Delaware before it’s political casino push and passage was set it was just like Finger Lakes,Suffolk Downs and dozen other racetracks that make one wonder how can they Still have $ 4000 claimers in 2020.I add Keystone,Philly or whatever they call it today to that list of tracks to avoid which to me are a waste of to
      One of and $.. You mention trainers as a continuing crying,suffering,painful Mantra. After so many yrs what it matters to me is PPs, attention a la Russ Harris ( track,distance,class,Beyers,…) After my couple of chosen are written down I concentrate on the board which is seen differently from you and means millions of others.Who owns the horse is insignificant.Im not a detective looking for miniscule clues,just want to cash with my main picks on exactas,triples and DD,,x that e rest I have no time nor interest.Yrs ago read many books by expert handicappers ,most,if not all,left too many insights out which I learned and tested over and over again, but like Dick Mitchell wrote never tell anyone of anysecretive way to win,,nobody will believe you and see you as a tool and !iaf,,worse than themselves.He Was Right!

      1. It’s now known as PARX. Knew a person who had a “system” many years ago. Only bet the favorite in the feature on Saturday to SHOW. There was no Sunday racing then. System worked until it didn’t. Also caught a private car ride to Delaware on a Sunday when there wasn’t any in NY (except Monticello). Horseplayer pulled into Delaware Park field where a high school kid was collecting parking fee. Horseplayer rolled down window and told the kid, “Private Limousine from NY.” Kid waved horseplayer in his own “private” car through.

  7. P.S.
    Doesn’t include boxed exacta at Tampa: $39 for $12 investment. Double it if followed suggestion of “extra tickets” keying second finisher first and second.

  8. Mr. Pricci: I wish I were as fortunate as you, and a couple guys here at the joint, who seems to always manage a profit. Most days I leave the joint, having paid for the pastrami sandwich and bar tab with my own money, in a foul mood.

  9. Probably should have played yesterday, but had no enthusiasm for it. Hoping that the opening of Belmont will cure me. Noticed that “Spooky” went off at 8-1 without a wager of mine, but doubt I’d have included all those beneath him.

    I just can’t bring myself to continue rewarding CDI’s lack of cooperation re: the TC and its penchant for GOUGING. Interestingly, Barry Irwin noted in a comment to a PR piece on Saratoga Springs summer prospects to the effect that relief from gouging might be a byproduct of spectator-less racing there.

  10. Gouging? No more so than perhaps a pair of Eagles concert tix for something like $500. That’s the world we live in now. Hooray for YouTube!

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